Formula 1 Monaco GP Betting Preview

The sixth round of the 2026 Formula 1 season arrives with Mercedes star Kimi Antonelli having forged clear at the top of the World Championship standings by winning four races in a row. The Italian leads his teammate George Russell by a whopping 43 points after his victory in the Canadian Grand Prix, where the British driver was forced to retire due to a battery failure. The twisting streets of Monte Carlo provide a unique challenge for the cars and drivers, though, and, while Mercedes have won all five races this season, they are not even favourites to win this one. The race will take place over 78 laps of the track, which is just over two miles long, starting at 2pm on Sunday. All sessions will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports F1.

Mercedes have taken victory in every race so far this season, with Antonelli in command after Russell’s opening success in Australia. The gap between the Silver Arrows and their rivals should not be as large as it has been in recent rounds this weekend, as their power advantage won’t count for as much at a circuit where the cars rarely approach their maximum speeds. That has been reflected in the odds for the Monte Carlo race and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is the clear 15/8 favourite with bet365, with his teammate Lewis Hamilton second favourite at 4/1.

Championship leader Antonelli is only third in the betting at 11/2, having had a tough introduction to the cost of making mistakes at Monaco in his rookie season, when a qualifying crash led to him finishing 18th. Last year’s Monte Carlo winner Lando Norris of McLaren, and Russell in the second Mercedes come next, both at 11/2, with Max Verstappen at 9/1 and Oscar Piastri available at 12/1.

Tip 1: Lewis Hamilton @ 4/1 with bet365

Hamilton has yet to win a grand prix in his first 29 attempts with Ferrari but he has a great chance to impress in Monaco this weekend. At more than twice the price of his teammate Leclerc, Hamilton certainly appears to offer the better early value of the pair as he comes off his impressive second place in Canada. The seven-time champion is looking more settled in the Italian team after a rocky start following his move from Mercedes and his Montreal performance suggests he is ready to strike at a track that should suit his car. Ferrari’s smaller turbo leaves them struggling to match the Mercedes engines at high-speed tracks, but their set-up is perfect for the different demands of Monaco.

Hamilton has won the race three times, but his most recent success was in 2019, so he should be hungry to add to his tally. After hunting down Verstappen late in the race in Montreal to take second place after starting fifth on the grid, Hamilton’s confidence should be sky high and the 41-year-old can attack the corners of the iconic circuit like he did in his younger days.

Tip 2: Lando Norris podium finish @ 11/10 with bet365

Norris ticked off another career achievement when he won his first Monaco Grand Prix last season and the British driver has a decent chance of returning to the podium this week. The McLaren man didn’t do much wrong in the cockpit in Montreal, finishing second in the sprint race and qualifying third, but his weekend unravelled after the team opted to start the race on intermediate tyres in drying conditions. Norris was still able to blast into the lead at the start but an early pit-stop saw him drop back into the pack before a gearbox failure ended his involvement. With two podium finishes in Monaco already, Norris should be geared up to impress again.

Tip 3: Carlos Sainz points finish @ 12/5 with bet365

Points-finish bettors may like to consider the other Ferrari-powered teams of Haas and even Cadillac, but the price that really stands out is the 12/5 for Carlos Sainz of Williams. The Spaniard has the incredible record of scoring points in all 10 of his career visits to Monaco for five different teams – Toro Rosso, Renault, McLaren, Ferrari and Williams. He finished on the podium three times in his four seasons with Ferrari and kept his scoring run going with 10th place in his debut there for Williams last year. After finishing ninth in three of the last four rounds, Sainz is worth backing to add to his tally this weekend.