Paolo Banchero was seen as a major longshot to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft as recently as Sunday, but that’s no longer the case.
The Duke power forward has +400 odds to be the top choice on Thursday, according to BetMGM on June 20. Those odds were +1600 just one day prior. Banchero also has +400 odds at DraftKings, as clearly there is a groundswell of support for him to leapfrog Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren to go No. 1.
Smith is still the favorite to be the No. 1 pick, although his odds of -160 at BetMGM do not foretell a sure thing. He was a heavy -400 favorite to be the first pick just a couple weeks ago.
Holmgren has the second-best odds at +170, but it is a clear three-way race.
Banchero averaged 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds as a freshman for the Blue Devils last season. He has been projected to land with the Houston Rockets at No. 3 in myriad mock drafts, and that is still the most likely landing spot.
Banchero has -420 odds to go third in the draft, according to FanDuel. If he does go No. 1, there is some serious value to be had at No. 3. Holmgren has +750 odds to be taken there, with Smith at +1200 odds.
It felt like Smith-Holmgren-Banchero was pretty well locked in as the exact order of the top three selections, but the major odds shift must be making bettors consider whether wagering on a different outcome is the best play.
If Banchero goes No. 1 in the draft, he would become the fifth Duke player to do so, joining Art Heyman (1963), Elton Brand (1999), Kyrie Irving (2011) and Zion Williamson (2019).
