We are already on to Week 3 in the NFL, and there is no game on the docket with a spread larger than a touchdown.
I’m off to a fast start with these picks, already sitting 14 games above .500, which means, yes, it is time to fade me and wait for the regression monster to take hold.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the weekend picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Here are my Week 3 predictions against the spread:
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Cleveland Browns
Thursday, September 22 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Even though the Browns have a really good rushing attack, I think the Steelers have the personnel to stack the box and make life tough on the Cleveland offense. Neither side is going to score a lot of points, and a field goal margin would not be a surprise.
Score prediction: Browns 19, Steelers 16
Pick: Steelers +4
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Colts are still the favorites to win the AFC South but the oddsmakers have more faith in them than I do. Patrick Mahomes is going to do his thing, and this margin could reach double digits if the Kansas City pass-rush can get after the immobile Matt Ryan consistently.
Score prediction: Chiefs 28, Colts 17
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Buffalo’s cornerback shortage has not come into play yet, but I think it will in this one. The Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle show will continue, especially if Buffalo is without star safeties Jordan Poyer and/or Micah Hyde. I like the Bills to win because they are more well-rounded than Miami, but the Dolphins have the weapons on offense to keep up.
Score prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Pick: Dolphins +5.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers clearly see more in this New England team than I do. Baltimore’s offense is dynamic and quarterback Lamar Jackson is playing football at an elite level. I think the Ravens win this one easily against a New England offense that does not have enough firepower.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 17
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Tricky one here. The Eagles are the darlings of the NFL after putting a whupping on Minnesota in Week 2. Washington’s offense is playing well, though, and the spread is high. Even so, I think Philadelphia has too much going for it on both sides of the ball and should cruise.
Score prediction: Eagles 33, Commanders 24
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at New York Jets
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals are in a funk to open the season, and its leaky offensive line faces a solid New York Jets front. There is no T.J. Watt or Micah Parsons over there, though, and Cincy should finally get right in this one.
Score prediction: Bengals 28, Jets 20
Pick: Bengals -6
Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Lions have looked good early on but get a tough road test against a Vikings team badly in need of a bounceback. Kirk Cousins should have more success than on Monday night, but I’m taking a hefty upset in this one. The Lions roar to the upset with moneyline odds of +220.
Score prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 27
Pick: Lions +6
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Titans are a long way from the squad that went 12-5 and finished with the No. 1 seed in the AFC a year ago. Tennessee does not have enough weapons on offense to keep up with a Las Vegas team that will be desperate to pick up a win and stay in the playoff race.
Score prediction: Raiders 24, Titans 20
Pick: Raiders -1.5
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Panthers lost a couple of nail-biters to open the season. Unfortunately, I think lightning strikes thrice in this one. Two erratic quarterbacks face off, and I think Baker Mayfield will be erraticer than Jameis Winston on Sunday. (That’s a word. Just trust me.)
Score prediction: Saints 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Saints -2.5
Houston Texans (+3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Houston Texans defense has been pretty impressive this year. The Chicago Bears barely let Justin Fields throw the ball. Add it up, and a road upset could be on the way.
Score prediction: Texans 19, Bears 17
Pick: Texans +3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 25 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Jaguars look much-improved from a season ago and could be a contender in the AFC South. The Chargers have Super Bowl-level talent at full strength, but what will be the status of star quarterback Justin Herbert? This one needs more clarity as the week goes along, but I think he will play. If so, the Chargers could overwhelm the Jaguars at home.
Score prediction: Chargers 31, Jaguars 17
Pick: Chargers -7
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Cardinals’ unlikely comeback against the Raiders was spurred almost entirely by Kyler Murray improvising. He has the talent to do that again, but interior pressure makes it more difficult, and the Rams just so happen to have Aaron Donald. The Los Angeles aerial attack, meanwhile, should feast against a suspect Arizona pass defense.
Score prediction: Rams 30, Cardinals 24
Pick: Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The scoring total on this game has dropped like a rock, as bettors expect a low-scoring affair despite the presence of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. No matter how many points are scored, I see Tampa Bay as the superior group. This spread seems too low.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 24, Packers 20
Pick: Buccaneers -1.5
Atlanta Falcons (+1) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Hey, the Seahawks are favorites. I feel like this game has a million different permutations available because of the quarterbacks and lack of high-level talent on the field. If A.J. Terrell puts the clamps on D.K. Metcalf, the Falcons may get this one.
Score prediction: Falcons 21, Seahawks 20
Pick: Falcons +1
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET
I’m probably higher on both of these teams than the general sentiment and wish they weren’t playing each other, but alas, here we are. The 49ers are on the road but I can’t shake the feeling that their pass-rush is going to make life miserable for Russell Wilson in this game.
Score prediction: 49ers 23, Broncos 20
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1) at New York Giants
Monday, September 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Cooper Rush was low-key impressive against the Bengals and gets an easier matchup in this one. The Cowboys’ defense has some big-time playmakers and Daniel Jones can be a turnover machine. I’ll take Dallas despite its quarterback concerns.
Score prediction: Cowboys 22, Giants 17
Pick: Cowboys +1
Last week’s record: 11-5
Overall: 23-9
