2022 NFL Betting Preview: Three Special Buffalo Bills Wagers To Consider

All the sportsbooks have standard wagers heading into football season, but there are also a handful of more creative ones.

The Buffalo Bills are projected to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, which is why their special wagers at DraftKings stand out.

Here are my three favorite special bets for the Buffalo Bills heading into 2022:

3. Josh Allen over 4,499.5 regular season passing yards and Buffalo Bills to win AFC East (+200)

Let’s get the easy part out of the way: The Bills are heavy favorites to win their division and I’d be very surprised if it didn’t happen.

So it comes down to this: Will Allen reach 4,500 passing yards in 2022? He threw for 4,544 in 16 games in 2020, but dropped to 4,407 last season despite an extra game and 74 more pass attempts.

Allen’s passing yardage total this year is listed at 4,400.5, so this would be a tick above that, but it’s still reachable. My big reason for backing Allen is his subpar yards per attempt figure of 6.8 last season.

That was 23rd in the NFL, sandwiched between rookie quarterbacks Justin Fields and Davis Mills. The efficiency is a near-guarantee to improve this year, and Allen has been so durable in his career that I feel good about his ability to play at least 16 games in 2022. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Allen hit 4,500 yards, or significantly more, in 2022.

2. Bills to win all regular season home games and Josh Allen to have most regular season passing yards (+5000)

I know, I know. This is a longshot. But I really like the 50/1 odds on it.

First, let’s look at the schedule. The Bills have heavyweight matchups with the Rams, Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals this year — but they are all on the road.

The home slate is much more forgiving. Buffalo faces the Titans, Steelers, Packers, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Dolphins and Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Notice that Buffalo only has eight home games this season while other teams have nine. For this exercise, that’s a plus.

Football Outsiders has the Bills as the best team in the NFL heading into the season, while none of those opponents are listed higher than No. 10 in Total DVOA.

The Bills are the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl and Josh Allen is the preseason favorite to win MVP.

What a year this could be in Buffalo.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 9, 2022

Green Bay stands out as the toughest matchup, but the Bills should still be favored, and there could be some regression in Packers-land in 2022. It’s hard to go undefeated in eight games, even at home (the Packers were the only team to do so last season) but if anyone has a shot this year, it’s Buffalo.

As for Allen, he has the seventh-best odds to throw for the most yards this season at +1200, and that might be selling him short. Allen was fourth in the NFL in attempts last year and finished eighth in passing yards.

The aforementioned yards per attempt of 6.8 was 1.1 yards fewer than in 2020, and Allen will likely finish somewhere in between this season. Everyone remembers the playoff shootout against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and the schedule is tough enough that Allen is going to have to absolutely sling it like that in multiple contests this year.

While there is an offensive coordinator change in Buffalo this season, I doubt Ken Dorsey, the former quarterbacks coach, has any plans of stopping Allen from taking plenty of shots downfield this year.

1. James Cook, Devin Singletary and Josh Allen over 1,999.5 regular season rushing yards (+200)

Even if Allen goes off through the air this season, the Buffalo offense is so explosive that the ground game could also be potent.

Last season, Singletary, Allen and Zack Moss combined for 1,978 yards, which makes the 2/1 odds on this bet intriguing. 

Cook was drafted in the second round, and despite being a rookie, is expected to leapfrog Moss on the depth chart and be a 1-2 punch with Singletary. He has already drawn rave reviews during training camp, and both running backs have big-play potential that could really help the trio reach this yardage total.

Moss may be involved, but likely only on short-yardage plays, so it won’t be a huge issue. Singletary has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in his career and will again be in an offense conducive to efficiency.

If one of the running backs misses a small chunk of time, it’s not the biggest deal, as the other can help pick up the slack. Allen, though, will need to remain healthy.

He rushed for 763 yards last season and has a rushing yardage prop of 550.5 heading into 2022. The Bills need all three to contribute, but I have a feeling the Bills’ ground game will be dominant this season.

If Cook can nail down a significant role, this underdog bet has a good chance to hit.