2022 Week 4 Monday Night Football Betting Preview: George Kittle Receiving Yards and More for Rams-49ers

The Week 4 slate comes to a close on Monday night as the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams face off in a key NFC West battle.

I like the 49ers in this one, plus, a San Francisco win would make everyone in the division 2-2, and wouldn’t that be symmetrical.

Here are my Week 4 picks against the spread.

Season record: 31-16-1https://t.co/72lnBNESRv

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 29, 2022

Here are my three favorite prop bets for the matchup. Odds courtesy of DraftKings:

49ers TE George Kittle over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)

Kittle dealt with a groin injury that kept him out of the first two games, but played 91 percent of the snaps last week against the Broncos.

When available, Kittle is one of the best tight ends in football and I like this value. He is averaging 66.4 receiving yards per game in his career and has a good rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Rams are just No. 19 in the NFL in defending tight ends, according to Football Outsiders. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey may match up with Kittle at times, but he will also be needed against Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Kittle only had four catches for 28 yards in his 2022 debut and didn’t have a big impact last time out against Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game, but I think the track record and talent wins out. This yardage feels low.

Deebo Samuel under 30.5 rush yards (-120)

Samuel is a dynamic athlete capable of breaking off a big gain at a moment’s notice, either out of the backfield or at receiver. But I just can’t do this.

This is such a high rushing total for a guy whose usage at running back varies from week to week. Jeff Wilson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has put together consecutive solid performances entering this matchup.

Deebo can be used at running back, but he’s also a monster on the outside or in the slot. He is averaging more than six yards per carry over the past two seasons, but I don’t think he will sustain that as the attempts pile up.

I think Samuel will get six or fewer carries in this one, and if he averages more than five yards per carry, I can live with the loss. I’m taking the under.

Rams K Matt Gay over 5.5 points (-140)

We are paying a bit extra for this one but I really like the number because there are multiple ways to get there.

Gay can make life easy on us by kicking two early field goals to call it a day. But if the Rams are moving the ball well and scoring touchdowns, then one field goal and three extra points also gets us across the threshold. 

The San Francisco 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so this isn’t a given, but the odds aren’t especially steep. Gay had six or more points in 15 of 17 games last year and has hit the threshold in two out of three this season.

This week’s props bet record: 5-4
Overall: 21-16