2023 MLB Betting Preview: Guardians, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies Best Picks To Go Over Projected Win Totals

It’s the first week of March, so hope still springs eternal for everyone in Major League Baseball. 

Well, almost everyone, but we’ll focus on the optimism today by taking a look at four teams who look primed to exceed their over/under win projections.

All odds from DraftKings as of March 3:

Cleveland Guardians over 86.5 wins

 This feels like the easiest over on the board. Cleveland won the AL Central with a 92-70 mark in 2022, when Terry Francona did his usual late-season magic for the Guardians, who led the division by 1 1/2 games through the games of Aug. 31 and went 24-10 thereafter to take the division by 11 games.

After pushing the Yankees to five games in an AL Division Series, the Guardians addressed their lack of power by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, who have combined for seven 20-homer seasons, or one more 20-homer season than everyone on the 2022 roster combined.

Good morning, Cleveland.#CLESpring pic.twitter.com/YQZJxpyIZO

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) March 2, 2023

With their pitching as strong as ever — former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber heads a top of the rotation that also includes the emerging Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill while closer Emmanuel Clase is the reigning AL Mariano Rivera Reliever of the Year winner — and Francona appearing rejuvenated, the Guardians should cruise to another title in a division that once again appears in flux.

Texas Rangers over 82.5 wins

This number might seem high since the Rangers have endured six straight losing seasons, tied for the second-longest streak in baseball behind, who else, the generational superstars-led Los Angeles Angels.

But the Rangers have dramatically improved their roster by spending almost $750 million (that’s $750,000,000) on free agents Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray the last two winters and they upgraded in the manager’s office by coaxing Bruce Bochy — who could have stayed home writing his Hall of Fame speech for the summer of 2024 — out of retirement.

TRY IT AGAIN

Rangers are one of 10 teams with at least five players in MLB Network's top 100. @1053SS @RJChoppy

28. Jacob deGrom
33. Corey Seager
46. Marcus Semien
70. Nathaniel Lowe
99. Adolis Garcia https://t.co/f0RcL7kcrz

— Bobby Belt (@BobbyBeltTX) February 23, 2023

The Rangers have plenty of starting pitching depth in the likelihood deGrom and Gray miss stretches of time as well as three 20-something position players — Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe and Jonas Heim — who posted WARs north of 2.0 last year. In addition, the new schedule format presents the Rangers nine games against the Reds, Pirates and Nationals, all of whom might flirt with 100 losses, and just 12 games against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros. 

The Rangers might not win 100 games, a la the new-look Mets under new manager Buck Showalter last year, but surging over .500 and contending for a playoff berth are certainly reachable goals.

Philadelphia Phillies over 88.5 wins

The Phillies symbolized baseball in the March Madness-esque era last season by making the World Series after entering the playoffs with the fewest victories of any tournament team.

But this over/under represents just 1.5 more wins than registered last season by the Phillies, who stumbled to a 22-29 start under Joe Girardi and made the playoffs despite Bryce Harper being limited to 99 games by a fractured thumb and a right elbow injury, minimal production from the middle infield and a revolving door at closer.

.@Phillies superstar Trea Turner shares his decision to sign with the defending NL champs this offseason.#SpringTraining | #MLBTonight | @LaurenShehadi | @Plakata pic.twitter.com/8GlCe8TQn2

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 3, 2023

Harper will miss the first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Phillies signed Trea Turner to a $300 million deal to occupy shortstop through 2033 (!!) and added Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to form a four-headed closer with Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.

The NL East is particularly top-loaded and the new schedule doesn’t give the Phillies as much of a break as it does the Rangers — coincidentally, the two teams open the season against one another — but they look to be much better built over the long haul than last year.

Chicago Cubs over 77.5 wins

 The epic rebuild in the aftermath of the hex-breaking title for the Cubs was wholly unnecessary, but it might finally be over. After going 39-31 following the All-Star Break last season, the Cubs spent some money and added loads of championship experience this winter by signing Dansby Swanson, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer and former MVP Cody Bellinger. 

Chicago also signed Jameson Taillon to bolster a rotation that lacks a true no. 1 but has some solid innings-eaters in Taillon, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks (coming back from capsule tear in his right shoulder) as well as a promising second-year hurler in Justin Steele.

I get to see Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner man the middle of the infield in-person today.

Let’s have a day @Cubs

— Greg Williams (@GregWilliams28) February 27, 2023

Even with the new schedule cutting down on the number of division games, there’s still a lot of wins to be had for the Cubs against the Reds and Pirates, each of whom are coming off 100-loss seasons, as well as the Brewers, who are retooling and appearing to be dealing with some dysfunction following the trade of Josh Hader and the alienation of Corbin Burnes. Another parade down Lake Shore Drive is unlikely, but the Cubs should finish over .500.