2023 Super Bowl Betting: Who Will Catch a Pass First, A.J. Brown or Travis Kelce?

There are a plethora of options for betting on the Super Bowl.

When the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs face off on Sunday, February 12, gamblers can wager on the spread, the moneyline, the scoring total and any number of prop bets.

So does it make sense to spend an entire article breaking down one particular wager? Maybe not! But I couldn’t help myself.

There is a prop bet at DraftKings that got my attention because I believe it is of particular value.

Who will catch a pass first in Super Bowl LVII: A.J. Brown or Travis Kelce?

Kelce is a strong favorite at -165 odds, with Brown listed at +130. But to me, the underdog play of the Eagles’ star wideout is intriguing, as I believe Brown is a good value play to catch a pass before Kelce.

I’ll explain why.

First off, the odds are set up like this because Kelce is unquestionably expected to finish with more receptions in the contest. He had 110 catches in the regular season, while Brown finished with 88.

With Tyreek Hill in Miami, Kelce’s role has only increased, and with a banged-up wide receiver corps, he is going to be the prime target of Patrick Mahomes. I’ll go as far as to say that Kelce will very likely catch a pass on Kansas City’s first drive, as he hauled in 39 catches in the first quarter of games this year.

However, there is a 50% chance that the Eagles start the game with the ball, which would immediately tilt the odds in Brown’s favor to grab the first reception.

The Eagles and Chiefs Both Almost Always Defer

To win this prop bet, we should actually be rooting for Kansas City to win the coin toss. Both teams almost always choose to defer to the second half when they win the coin toss, which means the Eagles will almost assuredly get the ball if the Chiefs get the option.

Kansas City chose to receive the ball in mid-November after winning the toss, and the Jaguars recovered a surprise onside kick. Afterward, coach Andy Reid said Kansas City ‘goofed’ when choosing to receive, citing a miscommunication.

In contrast to last game vs. Jaguars, Chiefs win toss and properly execute intention to defer

— Vahe Gregorian (@vgregorian) January 21, 2023

If the Eagles win the toss, pain may ensue, because Kelce will likely catch a pass on the first drive, but it’s a chance we should be willing to take at +130 odds on Brown.

The Eagles are Pass-Heavy Early, And Brown Does Work in The First Quarter

Anyone that’s watched the playoffs knows the Eagles are a run-heavy team that can wear down opponents between the legs of quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Miles Sanders.

However, they actually had the sixth-highest early-down pass rate this season at 58.8%, as the offensive staff believes in passing to get ahead in games before running to close it out.

Brown has been a huge part of that. He had 29 catches in the first quarter this season, seven more than in any other quarter. His catch-rate of 69% was also much better than in any other quarter, as Philly may have often been scripting easier throws to him so Brown could get into the flow early on.

It’s a Good Matchup Against the Chiefs

Kansas City was No. 20 in the NFL in pass efficiency this season, per Football Outsiders, but struggled badly against No. 1 receivers. The Chiefs were the second-worst team in the NFL against the opponent’s top wideout and allowed 7.9 catches for 81.2 yards per game to those players.

Kansas City lost Charvarius Ward to the 49ers last offseason and has not found a cornerback capable of slowing star wideouts in his stead.

Brown will be able to win one-on-one matchups in this game, and with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert flanking him, combined with a strong running attack, the Chiefs won’t be able to focus in on stopping Brown.

Brown’s Quiet Postseason Could Affect the Eagles’ Opening Script

Beyond the numbers and strategy, there is a human element to this. Brown has only caught seven passes for 50 yards in the playoffs after a monster regular season campaign.

He was visibly frustrated by the lack of targets in a blowout win over the Giants even though Philadelphia was cruising to the win.

“There’s nothing to worry about”

AJ Brown on the speculation he was hurt/unhappy after #Eagles win over Giants pic.twitter.com/0U6b873TYx

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) January 25, 2023

Coach Nick Sirianni needs his star wideout locked in and ready to have a big game, and maybe the best way to do so is by feeding him an easy screen pass early.

That would certainly be music to my ears.

Conclusion

This is the big question: If the Eagles win the coin toss, how likely is A.J. Brown to catch a pass on the first drive?

In my opinion, it’s very likely to happen. Because of that, I am willing to turn that 50% chance of coin-flip victory into a bet on Brown to secure an early reception.

The Eagles will want to start fast against the Chiefs, and getting their most talented playmaker involved is always a steady plan.

Kelce is a star, and by all accounts he is going to have a big game against the Eagles, but if Philly gets the ball first, I think Brown will beat him to the punch by securing a catch before the Chiefs take the field.

Prediction: A.J. Brown To Catch a Pass Before Travis Kelce +130