The Arizona Cardinals have won 5, 8 and 11 games in the three seasons coach Kliff Kingsbury has been in charge.
The trajectory landed him a contract extension this offseason, and a continuance of the trend would make Kingsbury the toast of the Valley, as a 14-3 season would be the most wins in franchise history.
But precious few outside the building actually expect that to happen, and in fact, Football Outsiders believes major regression could be coming in 2022.
The Cardinals’ win total this season is listed at 8.5, according to BetMGM, and the analytics site has Arizona comfortably below that.
The Cardinals are projected to win 7.7 games, which is behind the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans, among others.
Arizona is ranked No. 21 in Total DVOA, which, combined with the NFL’s hardest schedule and a neutral site football game instead of a ninth home affair, puts them 10th-from-last in terms of projected wins.
The biggest culprit? A precipitous drop in projected defensive success. The Cardinals finished No. 6 in Defensive DVOA last season but are expected to be No. 28 in 2022.
“They were pretty high last year in a couple of stats that tend to really significantly regress on defense,” Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Aaron Schatz said. “They were high in turnovers per drive and they were very good in success against short-yardage runs, which tends to regress pretty significantly from year to year.
“They were also much stronger on third down than on first and second in general, which tends to regress pretty significantly.”
While defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has done a terrific job of scheming the Cardinals to success, some of it may be unsustainable as the sample size increases.
“This team was one of the top defenses in the league last year, and you look at the personnel and ask, ‘How on earth did that happen?’” Schatz said.
Schatz also brought up the free agent departures.
Edge rusher Chandler Jones, linebacker Jordan Hicks, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips and cornerback Robert Alford are no longer on the team, while the Cardinals didn’t add any impact defensive players of note.
“They lost some (significant) talent,” Schatz said.
Many agree the onus will be on the Cardinals’ offense to do the heavy lifting this year. But while some believe Kingsbury is an offensive innovator, Arizona has finished just 19th and 15th in Offensive DVOA the past two seasons despite the presence of star quarterback Kyler Murray.
Murray is back and the Cardinals traded for wide receiver Hollywood Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games, while key cogs Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds left in free agency.
The team is projected to finish No. 17 in Offensive DVOA in 2022, splitting the difference between the past two seasons.
Schatz does leave some wiggle room on the projection because Arizona showed a high offensive ceiling in 2021 when Murray and Hopkins were both fully healthy.
“I’ll fully admit that if Kyler Murray was injured in the second half of last year — lost Hopkins, and Kyler was injured — then we may be underselling what their offense can do,” Schatz said. “Murray will play better when healthy, but the loss of Hopkins is pretty big. (And) the offensive line is not that great.”
I asked Schatz if he believes the second-half decline of the Cardinals the past two years is more likely to be a true trend or arbitrary endpoint randomness.
He wasn’t sure, and is interested to see how 2022 plays out.
“I’ve never seen it stick as much as it has with Kingsbury,” Schatz said. “When you consider the fact that it was at Texas Tech, too, the same thing? It’s weird. I honestly don’t know if it’s real. And if it is real, I don’t know what’s causing it. It’s going to be an interesting season to watch because (Murray) will get Hopkins back right when he usually starts declining.”
