Chicago Bears Projected to Have Worst Record in NFL by Aaron Schatz, FTN Almanac

Justin Fields is receiving more bets than anyone to win MVP.

The Chicago Bears are a popular pick to go from worst-to-first in the NFC North.

Hold the phone, says Aaron Schatz, the Football Outsiders founder who is publishing his 2023 season preview in conjunction with FTN.

Schatz’s DVOA projection system is not buying the Bears whatsoever this season, projecting them to finish with the fewest wins (5.4) in the NFL and the second-worst DVOA (negative-17.8%).

The core issue? Schatz points to the passing game.

“The Justin-Fields-for-MVP discussion is a little crazy, as far as I’m concerned,” Schatz told Compare.bet. 

Justin Fields as the most bet player to win MVP is fascinating.

Let's say Fields is such a good runner that to win the MVP, all he has to do is be an AVERAGE passer. 0% pass DVOA.

There is 1 QB since 1981 who was as bad as Fields for two years and then above average. ONE! (1/x)

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) August 2, 2023

Fields finished his rookie season with a passing DVOA of negative-28.4% (32nd among quarterbacks) and last year at negative-34.5% (34th among quarterbacks).

Schatz said the only quarterback in the past 40 years to turn in an above-average passing season after two straight at Fields’ level was Jeff George in 1993.

Mike Tanier, the author of the Bears chapter in the book, was succinct in his opening two sentences.

“The Justin Fields experiment is probably not going to work,” Tanier wrote. “Sorry if that shatters your worldview.”

Schatz acknowledges Fields’ elite rushing prowess and believes passing improvement could be on the horizon, but a Josh Allen-like jump would be shocking.

“I believe in all the arguments in favor of Fields,” Schatz said. “Yes, PFF thought he was very accurate in college. Yes, his receivers were not good (in 2022). Yes, his offensive line was not good. And yet, at the same time, his passing numbers have been dismal for two years. He will improve, but it’s hard to imagine him improving that much, that they are suddenly a winning team, when their defense also sucks.”

Chicago is projected to have the 25th-best offense and the worst defense in the league.

The betting markets at BetMGM have Chicago at +155 to make the playoffs, which is an implied probability of 39.2%, but DVOA posits it as only an 8.8% chance.

The signing of edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue came after the book’s publishing deadline, and Schatz believes the Bears may leapfrog the Texans in projected wins following that signing, “but their defense still sucks.”

While the team made a rash of upgrades earlier this offseason, they weren’t enough to move the needle in the eyes of Schatz.

“People feel like they added a lot,” Schatz said. “We did account for that. We accounted for adding D.J. Moore. We accounted for what they added on defense. You want to believe they’re going to be a lot better. It’s a possibility. It’s a story you can tell. You’ve got your projections and then you’ve got your narratives. It’s easier to tell the Chicago-puts-it-together story than an Arizona-puts-it-together story. But it’s just not likely.”

One of the issues for the Bears is that their strength on offense is the rushing attack, while the defense added some big names but still has major questions in defending the pass.

“The big adds for Chicago were off-ball linebackers,” Schatz said. “Those are good players, but all the indications we have are that off-ball linebackers don’t move the needle like players at other defensive positions. We’re not going to give them as much credit for Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards as we are for Yannick Ngakoue.”