Five Takeaways from the Odds Movement Surrounding the NFL Draft

Betting markets aren’t foolproof, but they can sometimes give us an idea of moves that are about to happen before they do.

Heading into last year’s NBA draft, the betting odds for Paolo Banchero to go No. 1 skyrocketed in the days leading up to it, when he had previously been widely expected to go No. 3.

Banchero indeed went No. 1 instead of Jabari Smith, as the oddsmakers picked up on a trend before it became public knowledge.

With that as a backdrop, here are five takeaways from recent odds movement in regards to the upcoming NFL draft.

1. The Cardinals are Expected to Trade Down From No. 3 Overall

Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson opened as the odds-on favorite to be the third pick in the draft, which would have signified the Cardinals standing pat and using the selection. Since then he has dropped steadily, and his current odds to go No. 3 sit at +300 at FanDuel.

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is now the -150 favorite to be the third pick, and since Arizona has star quarterback Kyler Murray under contract through 2027, that would mean the Cardinals deal the pick to a needy team.

Arizona has myriad needs across the roster. Edge rusher is the biggest, which is why Anderson makes so much sense, but trading down would help stockpile future picks, and that’s also important for a team in clear rebuilding mode.

GM Monti Ossenfort has said publicly that he’s comfortable remaining at 3 or trading down. As it stands, the betting markets expect a trade.

2. The Colts, Titans or Raiders Could Be Arizona’s Trade-Up Partner

DraftKings has odds of Richardson’s next team listed. The Colts and the Titans are the favorites at +200, followed by the Raiders at +350. So let’s break it down.

Indianapolis sits at No. 4 in the draft, and remaining there could mean it gets Richardson, because Arizona could keep its choice and draft Anderson, or someone could move up for Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.

But the Colts could also give up draft capital to move up one selection to No. 3 and grab Richardson, making sure another team does not leapfrog them.

The Titans and Colts are co-favorites to draft Anthony Richardson at +200 odds apiece, per DraftKings.

More smoke about Tennessee potentially moving up to No. 3.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) April 6, 2023

The Titans pick at No. 11, so if they want Richardson, it would take a hefty offer headlined by this year’s first-rounder along with their 2024 selection. Ryan Tannehill is a solid veteran quarterback that remains in place, but Tennessee is entering a rebuild and is undoubtedly looking for a long-term franchise quarterback.

Ossenfort came to the Cardinals from Tennessee, and that tie-in shouldn’t be overlooked.

The Raiders have the No. 8 overall selection. They signed veteran Jimmy Garoppolo to be their starter but can move on from him quickly if a rookie is drafted and ready to go in 2024. Las Vegas is always willing to wheel and deal, so a trade up to 3 shouldn’t be overlooked.

3. C.J. Stroud is Favored to Go No. 1, but Don’t Count Out Bryce Young

There has been some ping-pong movement on the odds to go No. 1 in the past few months. Young started out as the favorite, but when the Panthers traded up he was leapfrogged by Stroud.

Now, after a report from ESPN’s Chris Mortensen about Carolina’s interest in Young, the odds have gotten closer.

Stroud is currently the slim -125 favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick, followed by Young at -105. Richardson is a distant third at +1300. The betting markets are convinced a quarterback will be the first pick in the draft. They just don’t which one.

4. A Fifth First-Round Quarterback Is A Possibility

It’s a virtual certainty that Stroud, Young, Richardson and Levis will be taken in the first round. DraftKings has placed its over/under on the number of signal-callers in the first round at 4.5.

The under is the favorite, but only at -150 odds. The over sits at +200, which means another quarterback could very well sneak into the opening round.

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker is starting to get some first-round buzz, and he would be the logical candidate to make the over cash on this bet.

5. The Seahawks Might Get Will Anderson

If the Cardinals indeed trade down from No. 3 with a team not named the Colts, it could have a greater-than-usual effect.

Even though Anderson is widely seen as the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft, there is a possibility that signal-callers are taken with the first four picks. The Panthers and Texans are almost certainly locked in on quarterbacks, and the Colts would be hard-pressed to pass on one at 4 even if it’s only Levis remaining.

And if that happens, it means Anderson could fall right into the lap of the Cardinals’ NFC West rival, Seattle. He currently has the best odds to be the No. 5 pick in the draft at +175, per DraftKings. Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter has the second-best odds at +250.

The Seahawks were expected to take a step back in 2022 but made the playoffs, and now can keep adding to the roster with a bounty of draft picks received in the Russell Wilson trade.