Lonnie Walker IV started this season with a glut of newfound opportunity and plenty to prove after failing to earn a rookie-scale contract extension from San Antonio this summer.
Although DeMar DeRozan and Patty Mills stood between the six-foot-four swingman and consistent minutes in the past, coach Gregg Popovich and the front office parted ways with a handful of aging veterans in hopes of learning what their young core could accomplish without training wheels.
That massive leap of faith would help the Spurs establish which direction they were heading and which players would take the reins to guide them into the next era.
Dejounte Murray was the logical choice to assume most of the offensive responsibilities, and he has surpassed every expectation on the way to becoming a first-time NBA All-Star. Even Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, and Devin Vassell have made considerable strides from a year ago.
What about Lonnie? Well, while almost every Spurs youngster was making a case for a future in the Alamo City, the fourth-year guard regressed into the worst version of himself fans had witnessed so far.
Walker was never an efficient scorer, and his numbers took a nosedive across the board. As his production plummeted, Gregg Popovich turned to 19-year-old rookie Josh Primo to fill his spot in the rotation in early February.
The former Hurricane looked like the odd man out as the Silver and Black embarked upon their annual Rodeo Road Trip until a surprising trade sent Derrick White to Boston at the deadline and graced Walker with another chance to show his worth. Lonnie only logged two points in his first outing as the de facto sixth man, but that has been his lone dud since flipping a switch and dominating as the fulcrum of the second unit.
Walker has averaged 20.3 points while shooting 51.6% from the field and 38.2% from three (5.7 3PA) over his last six games. While the sample size is admittedly on the small side, the 23-year-old has popped on tape each night, and three things have stuck out in particular. Improved three-point shooting, finishing, and self-creation are the fuel pushing this expeditious breakthrough, so let’s examine how Lonnie has made this recent leap.
Everything stems from a significant upgrade in efficiency inside the paint, an area that has long plagued the bouncy wing. Despite possessing elite burst and the explosiveness to finish way above the rim, Lonnie has often opted for awkward angles and avoided contact, turning simple layups and free-throw opportunities into unnecessary acrobatics that typically begin with oohs and ahs from the crowd but end in disappointment.
Though Walker still tends to sky-and-adjust, he has displayed exceptional touch following all sorts of midair ball manipulation. Lonnie made 57.3% of his attempts inside the restricted area over his first 51 games, almost 7.4% below league average. He has converted an outlandish 81.8% of his looks from that zone over his last six appearances. And a sudden willingness to embrace physicality has also paid dividends as he is getting to the charity stripe 3.2 times over that same timeframe.
The Reading native has also made headway from long-distance during his offensive outburst, nailing 38.2% of his 5.7 three-point attempts per game while displaying a knack for creating off the dribble. His catch-and-shoot stats (35.7%) don’t leap off the page, but after shooting an abysmal 29.3% from beyond the arc to kick off the season, a better percentage alongside a higher volume is a welcome sight for a player draft analysts gave a 3&D floor four years ago.
As for his ceiling, fans and local media were hopeful the Miami University product would develop into a microwave scorer for the Spurs. Despite an occasional glimmer of brilliance like his career-high 31-point performance against Milwaukee last season, Walker routinely appeared content fading into the background when shots weren’t falling, and operating as the third or fourth option didn’t help his cause.
With that in mind, Walker now finds himself in an excellent environment to build confidence and sustain momentum from game to game. San Antonio is asking more of Lonnie, and he has responded to that career-high usage rate (27.3%) by generating offense like a genuine secondary scorer. While he still receives fewer touches than Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Tre Jones, the All-Star guard is the only one who has done more with his minutes as of late.
Lonnie hasn’t furnished a ton of unassisted offense during his sensational February, though he has yielded enough consistent flashes to inspire a bit of confidence in his self-creation.
His midrange jumper has left something to be desired from time to time. Regardless, his aggression, decisiveness, and shot selection have been a refreshing change of pace. And watching Walker rise to the occasion when guys defer to him during late-shot-clock situations has been encouraging.
We already saw Walker make progress as a pick-and-roll ball handler this season, even when the other parts of his offensive arsenal fell well short.
Lonnie can get into the heart of the defense whenever he wants, and he is more than capable of hitting the roll-man and open shooters. The 204-pound guard could become a genuine go-to playmaker off the bench for San Antonio if he continues igniting nets across the association.
| Last Six Games | Season | Career | |
| Restricted Area | 81.2% | 61.4% | 58.1% |
| In the Paint | 60.0% | 45.0% | 37.3% |
| Midrange | 41.4% | 39.0% | 37.3% |
| Three | 38.2% | 30.4% | 34.2% |
Before we get ahead of ourselves, this absurd productivity probably isn’t sustainable. That isn’t necessarily to say Lonnie won’t continue trending in the right direction for the rest of the season. Walker has predominantly thrived off assisted field goals via cuts, transition buckets, and spot-up attempts, all of which he has rattled home at a much higher rate than his career averages, and it would take a miracle to uphold.
Don’t fret about Lonnie falling back to Earth after an unreal heater to put an exclamation mark on the Rodeo Road Trip. Regression is inevitable, but prospect development isn’t a linear course. There will always be ebbs and flows when players are still finding their way in the best basketball league in the world, and the fact Walker put together his most impressive stretch of the year away from the AT&T Center speaks volumes about what could be in store once the Spurs return to the 2-1-0.
One of the most underrated things to come out of this insane streak from Lonnie is the possibility General Manager Brian Wright could have another stressful decision to make this offseason.
Letting the 23-year-old walk in free agency felt like a foregone conclusion a few months ago. Now, there should be a dialogue on offering Walker a second contract depending on how much that might cost. And if the price is right, San Antonio shouldn’t hesitate to put pen to paper.
