Mark Schindler’s NBA Mock Draft: Paolo Banchero Goes No. 1 and Other Surprises

We are less than six hours away from the draft itself. It is somehow closer and farther away than it seems; Fitzgerald’s green light in the distance!

I don’t want to say “I’m so comfortable with where I’m at with this class,” but after keeping up with the draft cycle all year, things have really settled for me. I caught up on most of the international players in this class and that’s helped me further formulate and gel my thoughts.

Two things I do want to hit on and emphasize before the mock:

Board placement doesn’t mean that I think someone is better than someone else per se, rather that I think there’s maybe more ways that I see for a player to hit higher outcomes due to a multitude of reasons that I’ve elaborated both written and on pod (Tag The Roll, go sub!). Caitlin Cooper and I have also put in a TON of prep and thought into our draft breakdowns over at Indy Cornrows and we’ve had some wonderful guests. I just find it important to always hit that. I’m not an expert, I just watch and think about basketball way too much. I’m trying to understand and learn as much as I can to continually improve evaluation.

What I get frustrated about with boards/mocks is that I frankly think each team and environment changes things for the most part. Who I’d take at 3 or 4 could change given which team is drafting. Context and circumstance matter so much.

This is just what I would do and how I value skill sets and potential development when looking at the environment and context.

1. Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero (Duke)

I love what the Magic have as a foundation and base, built on defense with some interesting shot creation and playmaking prowess budding throughout the lineup. Paolo is my number one player in the class and I view his blend of scoring and playmaking from a variety of contexts and dimensions as a really great upside play for Orlando.

Need a player who can operate as a screener,  popper, roller, or playmaking hub? Paolo can do that. Want someone who can run four/five pick and rolls themself? 

 

Paolo is a complete scoring prospect, and while his shot still needs refinement from outside the arc, the creation and efficacy he has as a self-created mid-range shooter gives me confidence in who he can become as a pull-up shooter from three. The levels he can reach with the shot will be vital for reaching his higher end outcomes.

Adding who I view as the best creator in the draft would be a boon for the Orlando Magic as they search for more effective modes of offense.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga)

While you can never have too much creation on a single team, I view Oklahoma City as needing a star supplementary player that can amplify Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Chet Holmgren is that player. Supplementary is not at all meant to sound reductive, rather worth noting that he brings a skillset that can really exacerbate and bolster a young duo of shot creators.

His connective playmaking is stellar and he flows incredibly well in an offense, feasting with cuts and off-ball movement, eating in the pockets. Finding players who can add strain to a defense with intuitive play and connectivity is essential for a young team. The shooting he brings is legit and makes him a remarkably enticing pick and pop threat. However, what I’m most excited for is to see him as more of a roller.

Playing alongside Drew Timme at Gonzaga, Chet didn’t get many roll opportunities, but that will change drastically in the NBA in my opinion. Short-roll playmaking and his adept finishing both from the intermediate range and around the basket could make him one of the better pick and roll outlets in the sport.

Defensively, the Oklahoma City Thunder crafted one of the better units in the league for much of the season. Chet could take a young gritty group from feisty to legitimately fantastic. What he provides both as a primary and help rim protector are game changing. He doesn’t cover ground with the same verve of Evan Mobley, but his timing, recovery skills, and ability to sniff out plays are on the same par.

What perhaps is most intriguing are the displays of ball skills and his coordination. I wouldn’t call him raw, but there’s a certain curiosity as to what his offensive upside could be as his game refines that makes me go “hmmm.” What he brings as a plus playmaker with size, the ability to take people off the dribble, and score in a  multitude of ways lends credence to one of the most interesting skill sets in the draft right now and moving forward.

3. Houston Rockets – Jaden Ivey (Purdue)

When we do a retrospective redraft in 2031, I wouldn’t at all be shocked if Jaden Ivey ends up going number one. He brings perhaps the most overwhelming skill in this draft with his ability to generate paint touches and bend defenses with a regularity that no one in the class can replicate.

 

As the season went on, Ivey made significant strides as a halfcourt creator, working in more as a pick and roll playmaker, smothering his at-rim attempts less, and attempting more from the mid-range. His playmaking improved and the game slowed down a bit. The windows he creates are sizable and while the ball placement isn’t awesome on passes yet, he’s making the reads with growing consistency and I think the accuracy and more advanced reads can grow to a degree in time.

The degrees to which he does improve with his reads and as an intermediate scorer will be crucial for his efficacy as a primary option, but what he brings immediately as a battering ram to the rim and deep shot creator is incredibly valuable and a remarkable foundation for a budding offensive player.

While some may question Ivey’s fit in Houston, I quite love it. I wouldn’t say that I don’t believe in Kevin Porter Jr as an NBA player, but I also don’t think Houston is in a stage where they should be making their long term decisions based on what he’s shown in Houston. Jalen Green is their franchise centerpiece right now and I love what he’s shown already as a top notch off-ball scorer. A Green and Ivey duo could become one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league in time with overwhelming athleticism, shot creation, and a fun blend using their speed off of post/elbow hubs like Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba to create a potent offense.

4. Sacramento Kings: Jabari Smith (Auburn)

This would be my favorite fit in the draft for a multitude of reasons.

The Kings are quite clearly trying to win now as all reporting and moves made in the past year indicate. Jabari provides great upside at this pick while also providing an immediate floor that I find would mesh well with what the Kings have right now.

I like Jabari a ton, but I don’t view him as a primary upside player moving forward. Playing off of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox could really utilize the best traits Jabari brings to the table with his shooting from a variety of motions, making him one of the most potent off-ball players in the league. I think starting off primarily as an off-ball scorer and outlet could open up more to pave the way for on-ball reps as he continues to develop, segmenting his role a bit to focus on the decision-making that comes from hard closeouts and working in more reps as a roller and popper than he received at Auburn as opposed to the mid-post touches.

He’ll of course still get many of those touches, as he’s a very good scoring prospect! But, finding a smaller role to really start to hone in on improving how he sees the court and makes reads is something I’d really like to see.

I view Jabari as the best perimeter defender in the draft off-rip, with the upside to be an All-Defense candidate depending on how his off-ball defense trends. The Kings have lacked a true wing who can get stops on the perimeter while also being capable of doing multiple things on offense….since Rudy Gay? Even then, Rudy’s defense was super inconsistent in Sacramento (understandably).

I’m less bullish on Jabari becoming that top flight primary option, but that’s also where intel comes into play undoubtedly. Jabari’s height, footwork, and shooting ability blended together make him one of the most intriguing offensive prospects in this draft, but he also brings up many philosophical questions about the value of shooting and how possible it is to develop some of the other areas of an offensive game. The Kings would be lucky and ecstatic to add Jabari Smith Jr. to a team hoping to make the postseason in the near future.

5. Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren (Memphis)

I will continue to scream from the mountain tops that Jalen Duren is the truth. I probably diverge on Duren the most from what consensus draft thought seems to be on his stock. I tend to not put the same sort of weight into age (it still matters, but I view it more as a leeway scale than an intrigue scale), but when considering he’s the youngest player in the class, I lend more credence to what his potential could be considering what he’s shown already both at Memphis and at Montverde Academy.

He is someone I consider a true modern big, capable of playing multiple coverages defensively, covering ground in a way few in the NBA can, and with true upside as an offensive player that I feel gets undersold. He is certainly raw at the moment, but I wouldn’t call him limited, so finding a team that’s truly committed to developing out his offensive feel and game is essential.

Adding Duren as a dynamic pick-and-roll partner to Cade Cunningham while also further establishing a defensive identity on this young core makes me giddy (I’m aware about the potential of an Ayton deal that has been rumored, but I’m operating with the idea of what’s current rather than what might happen for each team). This team needs to get more athletic and provide Cade better outlets who can bolster the things that he does so well in the halfcourt. I view he and Duren as a remarkable synergistic duo in time as Duren continues to evolve as a screener, DHO operator, and offensive threat.

6. Indiana Pacers: Johnny Davis (Wisconsin)

The Indiana Pacers are reportedly finally committed to a rebuild per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. 

via GIPHY

It’s been a long time coming and the Pacers have finally committed to a direction, something they’ve been in dire need of since 2015. Everything should be about Tyrese Haliburton moving forward and the potential of him becoming a true primary option. Johnny Davis is the ideal backcourt partner alongside Haliburton in my opinion.

He brings an immediate need at the point of attack as a defender, with his screen shedding akin to prime Patrick Willis. Legitimately, his ability to navigate screens and stop the ball at the point of attack is one of the best microskills in the class of ‘22.

Davis is comfortable and adept at coming off of and setting himself up to get the most out of off-ball screens, moving often like a wide receiver with stellar stutters and cuts to get himself open. The lateral explosiveness and fluidity he possesses is one of the most underrated athletic skills in the draft. It’s atypical athleticism, but it’s an essential reason for his upside.

Where you’re at with his ability as a shot creator likely feeds your placement of Davis, and I would firmly cement myself as a believer of what he can bring as a tough shot maker in the mid-range and operating as a secondary pick and roll operator. He likely won’t ever be a top notch shooter off of movement, but I’m pretty confident in his ability to become a plus outside shooter on relocation and off pin-downs, not just stationary shots. The potential as a pull-up shooter however, will be vital to him unlocking higher outcomes.

7. Portland Trail Blazers: AJ Griffin (Duke)

If I had to bet on a player not in the top 4 to lead the NBA in scoring at some point, it would without a doubt be AJ Griffin.

I’d consider him tied for best shooter in the draft with Jabari Smith. His stroke is ridiculous and he’s comfortable getting his shot off from a standstill, with a multitude of dribbles, and with immaculate footwork.

The defense is an adventure right now, and I do think tools and size can be overrated when considering defensive potential, but AJG has had an odd journey to becoming a likely lottery pick, missing a great deal of high school and AAU play. He reads much more as someone who will come along with his feel for the game with more reps rather than someone who has a capped ceiling due to how they see the court.

He has some decent moments, but again, it’s about finding consistency. Even with the Jerami Grant trade, this Portland team is in dire need of wings who can provide dynamic lineup flexibility and an offensive outlet for Dame. AJ is a good cutter in sensing where to go and how to relocate, but as PD Web wrote about, finding the most in his movement skills will be essential to easier buckets in the NBA.

8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Los Angeles Lakers): Malaki Branham (Ohio State)

This is the second “WOAH” you might be getting from me in the draft thus far. I absolutely love what Malaki Branham brings to New Orleans. This is probably a little higher than I imagine he’ll actually go, but NOLA is in real need of extra shot creation and ball-handling and I view Branham so highly in that regard.

The pick and roll scoring and playmaking are really impressive to me, especially with his creation upside. He makes solid reads and will more often than not pick out the right plays against a shifted defense.

He’s been on a really impressive development track of late, someone who didn’t really take many threes in high school, much more of a mid-range creator, but took a sizable leap as three-point shooter as the season wore on at Ohio State. I’ve liked his game and potential as an NBA guy for a few years, having seen him play at Saint Vincent St. Mary’s in Akron, Ohio, but the jump he made was significant. I thought he was a multi-year college player, but he parlayed his improved play into a likely first round lock.

He’s not an overwhelming athlete and wins with pacing, craft, and strength, which is a harder diet to survive on in the pros. How his jumper continues to evolve will be essential, but I’m very high on a player who is an outlier mid-range shooter with quality touch shown being able to carry that outside the arc.

Ben Pfeifer has a great video on this that I recommend checking out that aligns with some of my same thought process.

His defense is a pretty significant minus right now, as his screen navigation is very poor and he can really fall asleep off the ball. He has the size and wingspan to get to hopefully neutral in some scenarios, but I’d also add that the Pelicans have a number of defensive wings and forwards who can mask at least some of Branham’s deficiencies on that end as he hopefully rounds out some

9. San Antonio Spurs: Keegan Murray (Iowa)

The Spurs have intrigue across the board with numerous different archetypes on their roster, and I love what Keegan Murray could bring. This team lacks players who get easy buckets for the most part: I view Murray as someone who could be an elite outlet as a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, popping, rolling, and slipping into space. His ability to put up 12 points and seven boards without even being a focal point of an offense is an impressive skill.

The shot is very real from him, able to hit off numerous actions. How his mid-range game and handle comes along will be crucial for determining his higher upsides, but that’s also part of the reason I don’t quite have Murray in that top tier. He does fantastic things, but the issues he has attacking closeouts and self-creating make me a good deal lower on what his on-ball upside could be.

However, his cutting and off-ball flow and sense of positioning is pretty exceptional. He could be a tremendous cog early on in an offense as he works on repping out and growing other areas of his game as well on a team that’s starved for forward depth.

I would actually argue his defensive potential has been a bit underrated, as he took a step back this season with higher usage. I don’t think that he necessarily is someone you build a defense around, but he’s definitely a player I believe in factoring in as a plus team defender with weak-side rim protection and using his size and length to be impactful.

10. Washington Wizards: Dyson Daniels (G-League Ignite)

Washington is in such a precarious position, in that I really don’t know what their position is. It seems fairly likely that Bradley Beal will re-sign and I don’t entirely feel like parsing through that in this here mock! Beal is very good! Washington Wizards: not so much!

They have a lot of prospects on the roster that are interesting, but it’s hard to see what all it’s building towards. Having good players and prospects is a good thing, but it feels very overlapping and I’m not sure it’s a great environment for them to all find proper ways to develop.

That being said, I think Dyson Daniels is an easy pick here. This Wizards team needs more playmaking and ball-handling, and while I don’t think I’d consider Dyson a traditional ball-handler, he brings a lot of intrigue with his skill set. I really want to see a team lean into what he can do bringing the ball up in transition to get the most out of vision and quick kick-aheads.

I think he is more of a secondary actions operator than someone I view as running an offense, but a lot will depend on how his shot develops. The pull-up wasn’t really there for him with Ignite and he didn’t take many, but he’ll have a good deal of time to try and figure out how he commands and handles unders on ball screens as a player moving forward, something Deni Avdija is still figuring out.

 

The defense is actually very similar to Avdija’s (a good thing!) for me and I love the idea of adding in a wing with his intuitiveness and instincts. He’s much more of a player I view as using his length to catch and direct to help rather than being a true lockdown player, but that’s not at all a bad thing, just a different style of defense. With Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford manning the backline, I quite like how he could fit into Washington’s defense.

11. New York Knicks: Tari Eason (LSU)

The New York Knicks do not need to draft a point guard! Would it be sick if the Knicks could get a “lead ball-handler” here, heck yeah it would! But, this draft is this draft and I don’t really think that player exists in this range.

What I find more pressing for New York is athleticism on the wing and an infusion of more size that has skill. The Knicks have a lot of size, but it feels much more in the way of traditional fours and bigs than with combo forwards who provide lineup versatility.

It always felt like new York was playing overstuffed or undersized last year: adding wings and forwards who can in time be solid on both ends feels imperative to me. Tari brings that and then some. I’m higher on what the offense can be than most due to his daring (some may say erratic!) nature and randomness. He’s willing, sometimes overly, to try and do things. I tend to want to be more in on guys who have that extra hardwired audacity having an extra tier of creation chops that maybe don’t feel apparent in the moment.

How he irons out his handle and jumper will be crucial, but I think in a smaller role offensively, I buy his ability to improve and hone his decision-making. The slashing is very legit, but one-handed both in handle and finishing. The speed and power and some of the displays of touch are so intriguing. While I’d understand if the Knicks go with a “safer” pick, I just love what Tari Eason could bring to the Knicks if things hit right.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from LA Clippers): Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky)

I don’t have a ton to say on Shaedon Sharpe. He’s such an odd eval for me. I’ve gone back and watched his EYBL tape and the shot creation tools as an athlete are freakin absurd. Just having a minimal amount of tape, particularly recent stuff to go off of makes this very difficult both in projection and trying to figure out what team willingness and commitment will be like.

Shaedon was pretty late to the scene blossoming as a youth player and is still quite raw with his feel for the game. I really think a team needs to have a concrete development plan and path forward with him, which is a large reason why I’d have him falling to OKC here even if I think he’s much better than the 12th overall prospect.

13. Charlotte Hornets: Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona)

Mathurin is a lethal shooter both on and off the ball, thriving as a contested shot-maker. He comes into the league as a legit movement shooter off-rip as well as an explosive and dynamic cutter, someone who would really function well in a motion heavy offense. 

How he develops as a driver and ball-handler will be paramount for his offensive game, as he has tremendous straight line burst, but his handle really inhibits his ability to consistently pressure the rim even off the catch. Can he become someone who runs secondary pick and rolls and weak-side actions with efficacy in time? A lot depends on that handle, as his shooting already consistently demands defenders to chase over screens. Against a switch heavy defense however, he would likely struggle a great deal to create separation, something that I’d imagine he’ll face early in the league.

Mathurin is an exceptional transition player, a large reason for why I love the idea of what he could be with Charlotte. The defense is not good at the moment, with some positive plays on the ball, but a great deal of lapses in focus and overall pretty rough screen navigation for someone who is going to be asked to routinely chase shooters.

The Hornets need more consistent movement shooting in my opinion, part of the reason for some of their halfcourt struggles is how stationary the offense can be when it bogs down. Mathurin could really thrive alongside LaMelo Ball and become a quality off-ball scorer with room to grow.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jalen Williams (Santa Clara)

Another one of my favorite fits in the draft is Jalen Williams to Cleveland! The Cavs need more wings in general, but wings who can create off of Darius Garland is something we saw this team really lack last year as the season wore on. I’m still an Okoro believer, but he and Cedi Osman (loose use of ‘wing’) cannot be the only wings on this team (Caris LeVert is a combo guard).

How Williams can adjust to a smaller usage role and whether or not he has the same verve will be important to track, but he’s worth investing in. The pacing and craft he brings in the halfcourt are awesome and I love the idea of what he could do attacking an already bent defense. 

While I wouldn’t call him a great defender by any means right now, I think his brand of defense fits what the Cavs do. He’s much more of a player who contains and rides out drives to the rim using his length than getting full out stops at the point of attack. I think it still needs to clean up a bit, but I like the potential of how he can funnel ball-handlers or drivers to the rim, something that would pair well with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley and what they bring. 

Williams makes the Cavs more dynamic and adds some secondary juice they need to hit on with what could be their last lottery pick for some time.

15. Charlotte Hornets (from New Orleans): Mark Williams (Duke)

Mark Williams is massive, but also brings an incredible level of nimbleness to the 5 spot. His ability to erase a multitude of mistakes by the perimeter (Duke’s scheme was “Marl, save us” more often than not) is pretty ridiculous. I’m not super high on his versatility: I do think he can play more towards the level (do not read as AT) and in centerfield rather than a steep drop, but he’s really impressive at using his stature to the fullest and erase any sort of drawbacks he might have in space.

This Hornets’ team desperately needs to figure its sh*t out defensively, and I view Williams as that answer of stability along with a coaching change and hopefully some roster tweaks. This just is not a plus defensive group, but adding someone who can at least clean up backline and build a base around is something I believe they require.

Williams would also be an incredible partner for LaMelo. His finishing is so so good, with great displays of touch and the ability to dribble once or twice before adjusting to take a better look, a very important skill for 5’s today. I don’t think his short-roll passing is great, but I also find that he’s so good as a finisher and roller that he’ll get the opportunities to really improve upon his ability to make those plays.

I would do everything in my power to find a way to draft Jalen Duren as the Charlotte Hornets, but Mark Williams has a good wealth of upside as well, especially at 15.

16. Atlanta Hawks: Jeremy Sochan (Baylor)

This Atlanta team needs to improve drastically on the defensive end while also adding more talent in the frontcourt (as it would appear John Collins is on the way out). Their collective offensive decision-making and playmaking outside of Trae Young and Delon Wright at times this season could be pretty lackluster in spite of how potent the offense was.

Sochan is certainly limited in what he can do on offense, but what he does do he does extremely well and I think could be best highlighted alongside someone as potent as Young. His quick passes and ability to partner as a DHO operator and roll man could bring some of the similar dynamism that Young had with Collins, although without the same at-rim pop or finishing ability. However, Sochan comes in much more prepped as a short-roll playmaker and passer in general than Collins did, so it’s an entirely different look in my eyes. Where the shot can get to will be vital, but Sochan’s offensive shortcomings could be masked on a team that needs more quality ball-movers and connectors.

Defensively Sochan provides this team with answers in a way that Collins couldn’t quite do. Collins is so much better defensively than given credit for, but in a team sense. It felt like no one could stop the ball for Atlanta much of last season, and Sochan brings really high level aggressive switchability. He’s not a true 1-5 switch all turnkey, but he’s adept at using his frame and lateral quickness to keep a bevy of archetypes in front. His instincts are amongst the best in the draft on the defensive end as well.

While I certainly have some concerns about Sochan’s offensive game, he is without a doubt a player to bet on given how he plays the game and the feel he brings to the table. Love how he could impact the Hawks.

The Rest of the First Round

17. Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn): Ousmane Dieng (NZ Breakers)
18. Chicago Bulls: E.J. Liddell (Ohio State)
19. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaylin Williams (Arkansas)
20. San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto): Ryan Rollins (Toledo)
21. Denver Nuggets: Ochai Agbaji (Kansas)
22. Memphis Grizzlies (from Utah): Jaden Hardy (G-League Ignite)
23. Philadelphia 76ers: Wendell Moore Jr. (Duke)
24. Milwaukee Bucks: Kennedy Chandler (Tennessee)
25. San Antonio Spurs (from Boston): Nikola Jovic (Mega Mozzart)
26. Houston Rockets: TyTy Washington (Kentucky)
27. Miami Heat: Jabari Walker (Colorado)
28. Golden State Warriors: Kendall Brown (Baylor)
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Trevor Keels (Duke)
30. Denver Nuggets (from OKC): MarJon Beauchamp (G-League Ignite)

Second Rounders/Undrafted Free Agents I believe in:

Aminu Mohammed (Georgetown)
Andrew Nembhard (Gonzaga)
Blake Wesley (Notre Dame)
Bryce McGowens (Nebraska)
Bryson Williams (Texas Tech)
Caleb Houstan (Michigan)
Christian Braun (Kansas)
Christian Koloko (Arizona)
Dalen Terry (Arizona)
Dereon Seabron (NC State)
Gabe Brown (Michigan State)
Jake LaRavia (Wake Forest)
Jamaree Bouyea (San Francisco)
Jean Montero (Overtime Elite)
Keon Ellis (Alabama)
Max Christie (Michigan State)
Moussa Diabate (Michigan)
Tevin Brown (Murray State)
Trevion Williams (Purdue)
Vince Williams Jr (VCU)

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