NBA Futures Betting: How Will LeBron James Score To Break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s All-Time Scoring Record?

Los Angeles Lakers star forward LeBron James is closing in on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time NBA scoring record.

The record is 38,387 career points, and James is at 37,501 points as of December 7, 2022. LeBron should pass Abdul-Jabbar sometime in 2023, and the basketball sportsbook DraftKings has a futures bet in which you can wager on how James scores to set the record.

A two-point field goal is the favorite with -150 odds, followed by a three-point field goal at +210 odds and a free throw at +450 odds. 

Here is a breakdown of the three different possibilities, with a prediction at the end.

Two-Point Field Goal (-150)

LeBron James has done the majority of his work on two-point buckets throughout his career, and it’s not a surprise to see this way of scoring is the odds-on favorite when it comes to passing Abdul-Jabbar’s scoring record.

James averaged as many as 9.5 two-point makes during the height of his career, although that number has dwindled as he’s gotten older. James is averaging 7.6 two-point field goals on 14.3 attempts this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his 53.5 two-point percentage become more efficient when he gets more games under his belt.

👑 LeBron gets up for a Powerful Slam Dunk! 😤🔥 pic.twitter.com/NmB7mTdKWS

— Spectrum SportsNet (@SpectrumSN) December 1, 2022

Last season, James averaged 8.6 two-point field goals per game, which was the most since 2015-16. If LeBron is within one or two points of the scoring record, he could pass Abdul-Jabbar on a dunk, a lay-up, a fadeaway, a midrange jumper – anything inside the arc. 

James makes more two-point attempts than 3-pointers and free throws combined, so it’s a reasonable favorite.

Three-Point Field Goal (+210)

Even though he is not a prolific three-point shooter like Stephen Curry, LeBron has started hitting more shots from downtown as he has aged.

The game itself has changed, and his explosiveness is not the same as during his prime, which has forced LeBron to fine-tune his outside shot. James is averaging 2.4 made three-pointers this year, and set a career-high by sinking 2.9 shots from downtown a season ago.

Nice counter from the Lakers. Allen guarding LeBron so LeBron as a screener will be a drop. Westbrook drives the left side, engages and hits LeBron for 3. pic.twitter.com/UewfVtmRWx

— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) December 7, 2022

There are two more crucial bits of information to consider as LeBron James gets close to passing Abdul-Jabbar’s NBA scoring record: unlike the other two options, James could break the record on a three-point field goal if he is 1, 2, or 3 points away from doing so.

And then there is the human factor. If James needs exactly three points to surpass Abdul-Jabbar’s scoring record, he may be more apt to fire away from beyond the arc to do it in one fell swoop, and for the moment to be particularly memorable. It would be a lot cooler to see that than a free throw giving him the all-time record.

Free Throw (+450)

James does not get to the free throw line nearly as much has he did in his heyday, but he’s still averaging more free throw makes (3.3) than three-pointers (2.4) this season. The converted free throws is on pace to easily be a career-low and that number will likely increase as the year goes on.

“I love physicality. But I would also love for the whistle to be blown when I get hit. I look at a lot of guys tonight shooting a lot of jump shots, and they going 9, 13 times to the free throw line. I gotta learn how to flop or something."

– LeBron James

(via @michaelcorvoNBA) pic.twitter.com/sFMrby4ijw

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) November 10, 2022

The issue with this bet is that a free throw is worth only one point, meaning James would need to be tied with Abdul-Jabbar for this to be the method which breaks the scoring record.

James is a career 73.4% free throw shooter, and it would be quite tense if he goes to the charity stripe needing to sink both in order to surpass Abdul-Jabbar for the record. This is the best payout but it’s easy to see why it’s the longshot.

Prediction: How Will LeBron James Break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s Scoring Record

The three-point shot is the way to go with this bet. LeBron is taking more 3s late in his career, and being an NBA historian, will be aware how many points he needs to surpass Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time scoring record.

If he is within three points, the odds are good he will want to get there in dramatic fashion by nailing a triple. And even if he is one or two points away, James could still opt for the long-range attempt.

It is akin to a last-second shot, in which a jumper is the more likely method than a drive to the hoop. The value is right to choose James breaking Abdul-Jabbar’s NBA scoring record by hitting a three-pointer.

Pick: Three-pointer (+210)