Quick, name one running back on the Arizona Cardinals’ roster besides James Conner.
Hey, stop googling!
Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort did the sensible thing in free agency by refusing to invest more money in a position that is getting devalued around the league.
So as the 2023 regular season approaches, Conner, the seven-year NFL veteran, is in line for a workhorse role in Arizona.
But you wouldn’t know it by his projected season rushing total at FanDuel. The sportsbook has listed Conner’s over/under for rushing yards at 700.5, which feels intriguingly low.
While Conner is an injury risk, he’s surpassed 700 rushing yards in each of the past three seasons despite missing a chunk of playing time in each.
Last year, Conner missed four games but still carried the ball 183 times for 782 yards and seven touchdowns at a yards-per-carry clip of 4.3.
Now, I’m not here to say that Conner is a great running back, nor argue that he’s worth the three-year, $21 million contract he was given by former GM Steve Keim.
But Conner is tough, reliable and can be used both in the middle of the field and the red zone. He is going to get plenty of rushing attempts, as there is no clear candidate to siphon significant carries.
Second-year back Keaontay Ingram could see some work, or maybe Ossenfort signs someone on the cheap, but at the bare minimum Conner is your early-down back, and that’s when the most rushing attempts happen, anyway.
The Cardinals are projected to be the worst team in the NFL, and game script is a concern. Teams consistently trailing in the second halves of game will not be running the ball a lot.
But check out Conner’s totals in his final six games last season, when Arizona was consistently getting walloped by opponents: 101 carries, 468 yards and four touchdowns with a yards-per-carry average of 4.6.
Conner averaged nearly 17 rushing attempts per game in that span, all of which were losses, so touches were not an issue.
Furthermore, the new play-caller is Drew Petzing, who comes over from the Cleveland Browns. All the talk this offseason has been about a more run-heavy approach, which helps protect the quarterback and leads to better disguises for play-action.
Conner will be the chief benefactor of that, as he is going to get plenty of work.
There are two things Conner must weather in 2023.
The first is stacked boxes until Kyler Murray’s return, as few defenses are going to be worried about Colt McCoy dicing them up.
The other is the injury bug, as Conner seems to come down with one or two physical issues every year. But if he can avoid anything major, there is enough breathing room for Conner to miss a few weeks of action and still surpass 700 rushing yards in 2023.
There are guys with split backfields that are projected in that range. No, the Cardinals aren’t going to have an explosive offense this year, but the sheer volume will be there.
There aren’t many Cardinals bets I can get behind this season, but this is one of them.
Prediction: RB James Conner over 700.5 rushing yards (-112)
