Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The New York Jets Have Decent Offensive Linemen

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I HOU I DET

Today’s Team: New York Jets

Season Win Total: 5.5 (Over -175; Under +145)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +700; No -1100
Odds to Win Division: +2200
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +13000

In the most recent iteration of this series, I wrote enthusiastically about the future of the Detroit Lions, and I believed it. But I’ve really painted myself into a corner this time, calling this series ‘Optimist Alley’ before fully realizing that I’d have to write an entire preview about the New York Jets while wearing Gang Green-tinted glasses.

The Jets have a perilous quarterback situation and a less-than-compelling overall roster that is going to keep them from being a true contender for years. But, alas, we forge ahead! It’s time to find some good things about the Jets.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Offensive Line: George Fant finished last season with a pass-block grade of 75.1 and allowed only one sack, according to Pro Football Focus. He is back to anchor things at left tackle, while third-year pro Mekhi Becton has the talent to be one of the best right tackles in the NFL. Becton registered a 74.4 blocking grade as a rookie, per PFF, before missing almost all of last season with a knee injury. Becton’s weight has been an issue, but he is in good shape heading into the season, and the talent is obvious. Laken Tomlinson, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Connor McGovern are the three starters on the interior and all have the capability to be above average players.

Continuity: Coach Robert Saleh transitioned New York to a new defense last season, and understandably, he doesn’t yet have all of the personnel needed for it to succeed. But the players who have stuck now have a better idea of what is expected, while New York has also been able to add some pieces that fit his style. Cornerback is an important area for this defense, and New York added D.J. Reed in free agency and then Sauce Gardner with the No. 4 overall pick, so it’s possible the plan starts coming together.

The Salary Cap: While it won’t help this season, the Jets don’t have many immovable albatross contracts on the books, as they can get away from C.J. Mosley, Corey Davis and Carl Lawson after the season with minimal dead cap, if needed. New York has grabbed some solid pieces through the draft and free agency, so at least it’s a group that could be ascending, however slowly.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Jets

Sauce Gardner over 1.5 interceptions (-120): The Jets had the lowest safety-to-cornerback coverage ratio in the NFL last season, per Football Outsiders, which meant there was a lot of responsibility placed on the corners. It will only be amplified with a player as a talented as Gardner, even if he is a rookie. Quarterbacks will test him, making the over the smart play. And Gardner has ballhawk chops, as he had nine interceptions in 33 college games.

C.J. Mosley over 139.5 combined tackles (-115): The star middle linebacker has the third-highest tackle total among defensive players, but it’s still easily attainable. Mosley had 168 tackles in 16 games last season, including 103 solo. The reasons here are simple: Mosley is arguably the Jets’ best defensive player and will be involved in plenty of the action. And because New York is bad, opponents will be running the ball a lot in the second half of games, allowing him to rack up the numbers, just like last year.

Zach Wilson over 14.5 interceptions (-110): I used ‘over’ in the name of optimism, but don’t mind me for putting a negative in here on a technicality. Wilson had an interception percentage of 2.9 last season, which was seventh-highest in the league. He actually didn’t throw a pick in his final five starts, learning to check the ball down rather than chuck it to tightly-covered receivers, but I don’t think that is particularly sustainable. Wilson’s upside is as a playmaker, and the Jets must allow him to try those throws, which is going to result in many picks. And even if Wilson struggles this year, he is unlikely to be benched since the Jets invested the No. 2 overall pick on him in 2021.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

RB Breece Hall for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+750): A glut of wide receivers went in the first round of the draft and any number of them could shine as rookies. Then there is quarterback Kenny Pickett, who could be in the running if he takes over in Pittsburgh. But Hall is definitely an intriguing choice. Running backs can make quick impacts and Hall is already turning heads for the Jets this offseason. Even if he doesn’t master things like pass protection as a rookie, voters will mostly be looking at his stats, and Hall has as good a shot as any first-year player to put up impressive numbers. The line should pave holes for him, and the second-round pick has the talent to be in the OROY mix.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

Woo hoo, we made it to the negative Nancy portion. Allow me to share quarterback Zach Wilson’s leaguewide pass rankings last season:

• Passer rating: Last
• CPOE: Last
• DYAR: Last
• DVOA: Last
• Total QBR: 30th
• Yards per attempt: 30th

An optimist would say that Wilson is going to improve with a year of experience under his belt, and while that may be true, there is no evidence from Year 1 that Wilson will be a true franchise quarterback. In fact, this has all the makings of a Sam Darnold scenario, where the Jets give up on their high draft pick after a couple years and go back to the well to look for another.

The Jets may have a few building blocks on the roster and a plan to progress, but it won’t work unless Wilson can pull a Josh Allen and dramatically improve following a dreadful rookie campaign.

It’s not impossible, but the danger is that the Jets are tied to a sinking ship for three years before rebooting.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Jets GM Joe Douglas gets a high-five for the Jamal Adams trade that netted a pair of first-rounders, which may help build a base of talent for the Jets.

If all the youngsters click, maybe 2022 isn’t as dire as we all expect. 

In fact, a surprise playoff berth may not be out of the question provided… Who am I kidding?

The Jets stink. Bet the under.

The Best Jets Bet For 2022: Jets ‘under’ 5.5 wins (+145)