Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: New England Patriots Will Go As Far as Mac Jones Takes Them

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

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Today’s Team: New England Patriots

Season Win Total: 8.5 (Over -120; Under +100)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +160; No -200
Odds to Win Division: +500
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +5000

The New England Patriots are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

One one hand, they finished last season with third-best point-differential in the NFL with a rookie quarterback at the helm, which tends to predict greatness to come.

On the other, New England was drubbed by the Bills in the wild card round of the playoffs and never had the true feel of a contender. Furthermore, it faces major questions on both sides of the ball entering 2022.

So what will it be? Can the Patriots ride the greatness of coach Bill Belichick and the breakout potential of second-year signal-caller Mac Jones to contention? Or is New England poised for a step back?

Three Reasons For Optimism

Mac Jones: The fifth quarterback taken in last year’s draft is a divisive evaluation. He finished with a Pro Football Focus grade of 78.9 last season, which was easily the best amount rookie signal-callers. Football Outsiders agrees that Jones had the best season among the first-year quarterbacks, so Patriots fans should undoubtedly be excited about the future. Jones’ ceiling is not as high as that of Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance, but if he takes another step forward in 2022, he will already be an above-average quarterback with several years left on a rookie contract, which is a big deal when it comes to team-building.

Attention To Detail: The Patriots are projected to finish No. 2 in the NFL in special teams play, which is a nod to the greatness of the coaching staff in New England. From the moment Belichick arrived, the Patriots have consistently used a coaching edge to win close games, and that should be the case again this season. In a parity-driven league, that’s always huge.

Matthew Judon: New England lost star cornerback J.C. Jackson in free agency, which will take a bite out of the pass defense, which finished third in the NFL last season, per Football Outsiders. An antidote could be a strong pass-rush, and Judon will once again lead the way. He finished tied for seventh in the NFL with 12.5 sacks in 2021 and should be a force again.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Patriots

QB Mac Jones over 3,950.5 pass yards (-110): Jones had a yards-per-attempt figure of 7.3 last season, which is an impressive mark for a rookie. He finished with 3,801 yards, but the crazy wind game against Buffalo must be considered. Jones only threw three times in that one for 19 yards, which won’t be happening again in 2022. One thing that is really on Jones’ side: He is immobile and will have minimal impact with his legs. While most quarterbacks can scamper for a few yards, Jones will instead look to dump the ball off, which will help his yardage total.

TE Hunter Henry over 575.5 receiving yards (-115): It’s tough to know exactly how the wide receiver group will shake out in New England this season, but Henry is the no-doubt No. 1 tight end. He had 50 catches for 603 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago, easily outpacing fellow free agent signee Jonnu Smith. Henry is the superior receiving threat and should see ample playing time. Injuries are the main concern here, but Henry has surpassed 575.5 in all but one of his NFL seasons and is a good bet to do so again this year.

Patriots over 8.5 wins (-120): New England truly has the look of a middle-of-the-pack football team, which is why this win total makes sense. It feels like most of their games will come down to late-game execution, and this is a bet on Belichick being able to outcoach the foes on the schedule. I don’t love New England’s upside this season because it does not feel like there are enough stars to make a true Super Bowl run, but a 9-8 finish seems about right.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

RB Damien Harris to lead the NFL in rushing yards (+5000): The Patriots seem to have a logjam at running back, with plenty of options beyond Harris, chiefly Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris dealt with some injuries and fumbling issues a year ago, so he could indeed be part of a large committee. However, there is also the chance he emerges as the clear bellcow back. Harris averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2021, a year after averaging 5.0. New England gave him plenty of carries at times last season, and he could easily be the main back with Stevenson used as the third-down option. Keep an eye out for a Harris rushing total, but in the meantime, this longshot pick to lead the league in rushing yards is enticing at these odds.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

There are a few reasons to worry about the Patriots this season. Ace offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left to take the Raiders job this offseason, and there have been a lot of reports about a struggling offense in training camp. 

Jones had a good rookie season, but he was still the fifth quarterback taken in the draft for a reason, and may not have the skillset to take a sizable leap in Year 2 like some of the others.

There could also be some defensive regression with the loss of Jackson, in particular, having a profound effect on the schematics on that side of the ball. The Patriots had a nice bounceback season in 2021, but there was never a point where it felt like they had the ability to be an upper-tier contender, and that’s the general feeling I get heading into this season.

The Encouraging Conclusion

The Patriots are going to be a sound football team and don’t have a ton of holes on either side of the ball. They should rarely get blown out, and if a few bounces go their way, another double-digit season could be in the works.

Much of it will come down to the progress of Mac Jones. He was very good as a rookie and if the Patriots once again pulled one over on the entire league by indeed finding a quarterback gem in the draft, they will be set up for years to come.

It’s going to be an intriguing season in New England.

The Best Patriots Bet For 2022: QB Mac Jones over 3,950.5 pass yards (-110)