Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: Easy Schedule Gives Washington Commanders Shot at Mediocrity

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I CAR I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I MIA I NYG I NYJ I PIT I SEA

Today’s Team: Washington Commanders

Season Win Total: 8 (Over +100; Under -120)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +150; No -185
Odds to Win Division: +500
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +7000

Like with the Jets, my optimism is being tested today. 

The Commanders have an odorous owner, made a terrible trade to add a subpar quarterback and won’t have their best player for at least four games.

They continue to rack up seven-win seasons, which means they aren’t good enough to contend but aren’t bad enough to secure an elite quarterback prospect in the draft.

Washington was somehow still in the playoff picture late last season, but it was all a mirage, as evidenced by a negative point-differential of 99, which was seventh-worst in football.

OK, OK, enough of this. Shake it off, Kyle. Let’s find some positivity among the wreckage.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Schedule: Are the Commanders good? No. Do they play a lot of similarly bad teams? Yes! Washington has the second-easiest schedule in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. They have matchups against the Giants twice, the Jaguars, Lions, Bears, Texans and Falcons. That is seven winnable games right there, and with the propensity for upsets in the NFL, it’s not out of the question that they sneak their way above .500 this season.

The Defense: Washington was fourth in points allowed in 2020 but dropped all the way to 25th last season. The major culprit? A lack of stops on third and fourth down. According to Football Outsiders, the Commanders were the worst in the NFL at it. While that’s not a good thing, some positive regression is on tap, which should allow Washington to bounce back defensively. Chase Young – the aforementioned best player – is going to start on PUP as he recovers from a torn ACL, but hopefully his whole season isn’t completely derailed. Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Kendall Fuller, Kamren Curl and William Jackson are all capable of being above-average players, and the Commanders will need it because of the offensive issues.

Terry McLaurin: It’s a shame Scary Terry has done most of his work in relative anonymity thus far, because he is every bit the game-changing receiver as some of his more famous colleagues. He is averaging more than 1,000 receiving yards per season and will again be Washington’s most lethal weapon on offense in 2022.

Two ‘Over’ Bets For The Commanders

Carson Wentz over 10.5 interceptions (-110): Wentz has thrown exactly seven interceptions in four of his six seasons, including last year with the Colts. However, there is reason to believe the picks will be elevated this year. Some of those low totals came when he missed games, and he’s often been on good teams that didn’t require him to air it out late when his group was trailing. Wentz did lead the NFL in interceptions two seasons ago with the Eagles, throwing 15 in just 12 games. He was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL last year, so despite the track record, look for the picks to surge this year.

Terry McLaurin over 1,000.5 receiving yards (-120): Scary Terry had the lowest yards per target, catch percentage and receiving yards per game numbers of his career in 2021. Even so, he finished with 1,053 receiving yards by playing in all 17 games. It’s hard to count on a player being available all season, but McLaurin had 1,118 receiving yards in only 15 games in 2020. He should have more efficient numbers this season and has been relatively healthy for most of his career. The Commanders’ offense could be rough at times, but McLaurin is someone that can be counted on to produce.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

RB Brian Robinson for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+3500): There is already some buzz in Washington that Robinson will supplant Antonio Gibson as the starter, either by Week 1 or shortly thereafter. Even though running backs have been devalued by the NFL, that’s not the case when it comes to awards. Robinson is a bigger back who should get a fair share of touchdowns, and if his yards-per-carry number is good, then he could very well be in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year. At 35/1 odds, it’s a good bet.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

More like a big dose. Washington is projected to finish No. 31 in offensive efficiency this season, as there is little hope that Wentz can save his career and become an above-average quarterback. Making matters worse, the Commanders traded two third-round picks for him, when they could’ve had Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo at a fraction of that price.

Washington’s defense is projected to be above average, and combined with the schedule, the Commanders may not finish among the worst teams in the NFL. But that’s a bad thing, as they will remain in purgatory with no clear avenue out of it and into future contention.

There are a lot of non-playoff teams in the NFL that have been realistic about the best way to eventually get back on the right path. Washington is not one, and the future looks like it will be bleak for years to come.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Can’t do it. Fade the Commanders.

The Best Commanders Bet For 2022: Washington under 8 wins (-120)