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Premier League Relegation Odds

Which teams are destined for the drop and which will make a great escape? Track the Premier League relegation odds with our historical trend data.

The battle for survival at the bottom of the Premier League table is one of the most consistently exciting elements of the season. Use our Premier League Relegation Odds page to track the odds of those at risk of the drop and check out the significant moments affecting any changes in price.

 


We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:


2023/2024 Premier League Relegation – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

18th September 2023: One week in and the three promoted teams are realising how challenging it can be in top flight football. Burnley started off the season with a visit from last year’s champions, Manchester City, and lost 3-0. Luton visited Brighton and lost 4-1 while Sheffield United lost 1-0 at home to Crystal Palace. As is to be expected from such a tough start, the three promoted teams are early favourites for relegation, alongside struggling Everton. 

13th September 2023: The new season kicks off with three newly promoted teams replacing Leicester, Leeds and Southampton. Burnley and Sheffield United finished first and second respectively in the Championship so achieved automatic promotion. Luton Town beat Coventry in the play off finals to clinch the final promotion spot.

 

2022/2023 Premier League Season Conclusion:

  • 28th May 2023: The last day of the 2022/23 season and the three teams confirmed for relegation are Leicester City with 34 points, Leeds United with 31 points and Southampton with 25 points.
  • 16th May 2023: Saturday confirmed what we’ve known was going to happen for a while now, with Southampton being officially relegated to the Championship. It looks as if Leicester will be joining them after another abject performance last night, and the bookies expect Leeds to be the third team to go down, despite a spirited 2-2 draw against Newcastle.
  • 9th May 2023: What an incredible weekend of Premier League football. Forest did their chances of safety a world of good by beating Southampton, who now look certain to go down, but it was Everton who had the best weekend. According to the tracker, before this weekend Everton had a 60% chance of relegation, while Leicester’s was 35%. After Everton dismantled Brighton at the Amex and Leicester were humbled by Fulham, Everton’s chances have plummeted to 28%, while Leicester have gone up to 70%. If the bookies are to be believed, Saints, Leeds and Leicester will be playing Championship football next year.
  • 2nd May 2023: Four games to go, five teams battling it out for safety. Last night’s barnstormer between Everton and Leicester didn’t do much for either team, and they are still right up against it. The tracker suggests Saints are already all but down, while Leeds under the stewardship of Big Sam are expected to finish 19th.

2024/25 Premier League Relegation – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites

Leicester
2/5
Ipswich
8/11
Southampton
11/8
Everton
2/1
Nottingham Forest
2/1

About this data:

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Favourites to be Relegated

Favourites to be Relegated 2023/24 Season

Luton Town

Recognised for their novel away end entrance at Kenilworth Road, Luton Town are always likely to be the underdogs when it comes to Premier League survival. This is their first appearance in the Premier League since 1991/92, having dropped down to non-league before embarking on an impressive climb back up the ladder. Luton haven’t had the best start to the season. Their stadium wasn’t ready for visitors until September meaning their initial two matches had to be away schedules. Three losses our of the first three games, Luton are eager to grab some league points in a bid to boost their confidence for the rest of the season. 

Sheffield United

The Blades were last in the Premier League in the 2020/21 season so are more accustomed to how it works than perhaps Luton or Burnley. During this episode they finished bottom of the table with only seven wins and 23 points so will be desperate to improve on that performance. So far it hasn’t gone entirely well – three losses against Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City but then a well fought draw against Everton sees them with just one point and a fourth from bottom place on the table.   

Everton 

Gripping on to their consistent Premier League residency by the skin of their teeth, Everton only survived the 2022/23 season by two points thanks to a final day win against Bournemouth. Surprisingly, Everton are one of the six teams never to have been relegated since the Premier League was initiated in 1992 – their compatriots being Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham. However, they may soon be removed from this elite group of teams if odds are to be believed. So far, they have three losses and one draw and sit in 18th position. 

Burnley 

Burnley have a tough first couple of months in the Premier League with October fixtures including Chelsea, Bournemouth, Brentford and a must win against Luton Town. Things haven’t been great so far for Vincent Kompany’s squad. Their initiation into the Premier League was against last season’s winners, Manchester City. As expected, City won but that wasn’t the end of it for Burnley as they moved on to further losses against Villa and Tottenham. A cup win against Nottingham Forest could boost their confidence but it’s going to take some effort to push themselves off the bottom of the table where they currently sit in 20th place. 

Premier League Relegation Odds

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