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Premier League Relegation Odds

Which teams are destined for the drop and which will make a great escape? Track the Premier League relegation odds with our historical trend data.

The battle for survival at the bottom of the Premier League table is one of the most consistently exciting elements of the season. Use our Premier League Relegation Odds page to track the odds of those at risk of the drop and check out the significant moments affecting any changes in price.


We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:

2021/2022 Premier League Relegation – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

  • 18th April – Watford’s chances of relegation edge closer to certainty as they lose again, this time 2-1 to Brentford. Their implied probability now sits at 98.23%, just behind Norwich’s 99.43%.
  • 12th April – Everton edge closer to safety after an inspired victory over Manchester United. Watford continue to slide further towards the Championship after they are soundly beaten by Leeds 3-0. Burnley also see their odds shorten considerably as they lose to fellow strugglers, Norwich.
  • 5th April – Burnely’s odds of relegation increase slightly after losing 2-0 at home to champions, Manchester City.
  • 21st March – Leeds rescue their dire recent form by beating Wolves 3-2 in the last minute. Brentford lose 2-1 to Leicester, however, and their odds shorten slightly.
  • 14th March – Watford’s odds of relegation lengthen slightly following their stunning 2-1 win away to Southampton. Everton’s odds of relegation shorten considerably as they lose their fourth league game in a row, beaten 1-0 at home by Wolves. Burnley’s odds shorten once again as they are beaten 2-0 by fellow strugglers, Brentford.
  • 7th March – Norwich are beaten at home by fellow relegation rivals Brentford. Watford also lose in a frantic game against Arsenal that finishes 3-2 to the Gunners. Burnley’s odds shorten once again as they receive a 4-0 hammering from Chelsea.
  • 28th February – Burnley win again, beating Tottenham 1-0, before drawing 1-1 against Crystal Palace. Brentford’s odds continue to shorten as they lose again, this time 2-0 against Newcastle.
  • 21st February – Burnley’s odds of relegation plummet after they beat Brighton 3-0 away from home. Watford beat Villa 1-0 to see their odds lengthen too, while Brentford’s odds shorten as they lose to Arsenal, their seventh loss in eight league games.
  • 14th February – Newcastle’s odds of relegation lengthen considerably after they beat Everton and Aston Villa on the bounce. Watford’s odds shorten as they lose two on the bounce – to West Ham and Brighton – while Burnley’s also shorten despite drawing 1-1 with Manchester United and only losing 1-0 to Liverpool.
  • 25th January – Another win for Norwich, this time against out of form Watford sees their odds of relegation lengthen significantly. They are still favourites for the drop, but they are now out of the relegation zone.
  • 18th January – Following a win against fellow strugglers Everton, Norwich pile more pressure on the ailing Merseyside club. Nonetheless, they are still favourites for the drop with Watford and Burnely both second and third favourites.
  • 4th January – Newcastle’s odds continue to lengthen as the January transfer window opens.
  • 30th December – Newcastle’s chances of relegation drop below Watford as they salvage a point against a pitiful Manchester United.
  • 21st December – Leeds chances of relegation soar following three defeats on the bounce, including a 4-1 defeat at home to Arsenal and a 7-0 away to Manchester City.
  • 14th December – Norwich remain the outright favourites for the drop following their loss to Manchester United at home. Burnely’s odds lengthen slightly as they record a scrappy draw against West Ham.
  • 7th December – Newcastle secure their first victory of the season over Burnley, which means they, the Clarets and Watford are now level pegging to face the drop beneath outright favourites, Norwich.
  • 30th November – Newcastle’s odds of relegation shorten slightly following their 2-0 loss away to Arsenal.
  • 23rd November – A second victory in as many games for Norwich, this time a 2-1 win over Southampton, and a new manager in Dean Smith means their odds of relegation continue to lengthen. Watford’s 4-1 victory over Manchester United means their odds of relegation lengthen as well. Newcastle, now under the guidance of Eddie Howe, seal an entertaining 3-3 draw with Brentford, but it’s not enough see them move to the foot of the table.
  • 8th November – Norwich’s odds of relegation reduce slightly after they beat Brentford 2-1. Watford’s sorry loss to Arsenal sees their chances of relegation increase slightly.
  • 2nd November – Watford’s loss to Southampton puts them back in the mix for relegation. Burnley’s emphatic win against Brentford lengthens their odds slightly.
  • 26th October – Watford’s odds lengthen after by 13.03% after their stunning 5-2 comeback win against Everton. Newcastle’s chances of relegation increase slightly after they are held to a 1-1 draw Selhurst Park.
  • 18th October – Watford’s heavy 5-0 home loss to Liverpool sees their odds of relegation shorten while Burnley’s 2-0 away loss to Man City means they remain third-favourites to be relegated.
  • 11th October – Newcastle’s chances of relegation lengthen significantly following their recent Saudi-backed takeover. Norwich’s winless start to the season means they remain rooted to the bottom of the table.
  • 4th October – Newcastle’s odds of relegation shorten following a fourth loss of the season. The Magpies remain winless after seven games played. A respectable 2-2 draw against Leicester sees Palace maintain their steady move away from a relegation scrap.
  • 27th September – Norwich now have a 77.5% chance of relegation after a sixth consecutive loss, this time to Everton.
  • 20th September – Another loss for Norwich, this time against Watford, sees the likelihood of their relegation sky-rocket to 71.96%. Watford’s odds, however, lengthen for the first time since their opening game.
  • 13th September – Norwich’s winless start sees the likelihood of their relegation grow following their 1-0 loss to Arsenal. Odds on Watford’s potential relegation shorten as they lose to Wolves, while Crystal Palace’s 3-0 win against Spurs reduces their odds of relegation by 15.22%.
  • 31st August –  Bookies shorten odds on Norwich after they suffer a third consecutive defeat. Bookies also shorten odds on Watford and Newcastle following a defeat and draw respectively.
  • 24th August – Odds shorten odds on Crystal Palace and Newcastle as both teams remain winless in two games. Odds are lengthened on Aston Villa, Brentford and Watford despite mixed results, with each team winning, drawing and losing, respectively.
  • 17th August – Bookies lengthen relegation odds on Brentford and Watford after surprise wins in their opening games. Odds are shortened on Southampton and Norwich who suffer opening day defeats.
  • 16th June – Following the announcement of the Premier League fixtures list, the three freshly promoted sides, Norwich City, Watford and Brentford, are the current favourites to go down. There is a big gap between third-favourite, Brentford, on 49.12% and the next most likely to be relegated, Crystal Palace, who sit at 30.77%.

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Premier League Relegation Odds

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