Champions League Winner Odds

As the Champions League kicks off for another year, the bookies have already picked out their favourites. Our odds tracker shows who is on course to claim Europe’s most illustrious prize and how the odds have fluctuated over time.

We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:

• Premier League Winner Odds
• Premier League Golden Boot Odds
• Premier League Top Four Odds
• Premier League Relegation Odds
• World Cup 2026 Winner Odds
• World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Odds
• Super Bowl LX Winner Odds
• NFL MVP Winner Odds
• The Oscars Betting Odds
• Ballon d’Or Odds

If you’re a long-time Champions League viewer, you’ll notice things look a little different this season. The familiar format of eight groups of four has been scrapped in favour of a new, expanded league phase. Here’s what you need to know:

• One Giant League Table: All 36 competing clubs are now ranked in a single league table.
• Eight Unique Opponents: Instead of playing three teams twice, each club plays eight matches against eight different opponents (four at home, four away).
• Automatic Qualification: The teams finishing in the top 8 of the league phase automatically qualify for the Round of 16.
• Knockout Play-offs: Teams finishing from 9th to 24th place enter a two-legged knockout play-off round to determine the other eight teams that advance to the Round of 16.
• Elimination: Teams finishing 25th or lower are eliminated from all European competition.

This new format has already had a huge impact on the competition, leading to a knockout bracket with a very distinct character and creating new angles for outright betting.

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

The draw for the 2025/26 knockout stage has created a fascinating and distinctly unbalanced path to the final. The 16 remaining teams have been split into two sides of a fixed bracket, meaning we know exactly which teams can and cannot meet before the final in Budapest. One side of the draw is stacked with the competition’s historical giants, while the other presents a clearer route for a potential first-time winner.

The Gauntlet: One Finalist from Europe’s Elite

The top half of the draw is a minefield, featuring five of the last six champions. Only one of these teams can possibly reach the final:

• Real Madrid vs Manchester City: A blockbuster clash between the 15-time winners and the 2023 champions.
• Atalanta vs Bayern Munich: The German giants face the sole remaining Italian side.
• Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea: The defending champions take on the 2021 winners.
• Galatasaray vs Liverpool: The 2019 winners face a tricky trip to Istanbul.

For bettors, this means that at least three of Europe’s most heavily-backed teams will be eliminated before the semi-final stage, making outright bets on any of these clubs a high-risk, high-reward proposition.

The Opportunity: Arsenal’s Golden Path?

The bottom half of the draw looks far more open on paper, headlined by the tournament favourites, Arsenal, who are chasing their first-ever Champions League title.

• Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal: The Gunners face the German champions in the Round of 16.
• Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP: A clash between the Norwegian surprise package and the Portuguese champions.
• Newcastle United vs Barcelona: The Magpies face a tough test against the five-time winners.
• Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham: A classic battle of tactical styles between Diego Simeone and Ange Postecoglou.

This side of the bracket guarantees a finalist who has avoided the gauntlet of City, Real, Bayern, and PSG. This has seen Arsenal’s odds shorten dramatically, as their path to Budapest appears significantly less perilous than that of their main rivals.

Previous Champions League Winners:

Arsenal (5/2) — The Favourites

No team has benefited more from the knockout draw than Arsenal. After becoming the first team in history to achieve a perfect record in the new league phase (eight wins from eight), Mikel Arteta’s side were rewarded with a favourable path to the final. They avoid all the other main contenders until a potential final showdown. The Gunners have never won the Champions League, falling at the final hurdle in 2006, and the bookmakers believe this is their best-ever chance to finally lift the trophy. Their draw against a strong Bayer Leverkusen side is tricky, but their path thereafter is the envy of Europe, making them justifiable 5/2 favourites.

Bayern Munich (11/2) — The Experienced Challengers

As six-time winners, Bayern Munich possess a European pedigree that few can match. They have been handed a winnable Round of 16 tie against Atalanta, the only Italian team left in the competition. However, their path gets significantly harder from there, with a potential quarter-final against the winner of the colossal Real Madrid vs Man City tie. While their odds of 11/2 are tempting for a team of their quality, they will have to overcome at least two European giants to reach the final.

Barcelona (6/1) — The Dark Horses

Barcelona find themselves on the ‘right’ side of the draw, but face a tough Round of 16 clash with a physical and well-drilled Newcastle United side. Should they navigate that, a potential quarter-final against Atlético Madrid or Tottenham awaits. While not the force they once were, Barcelona’s young side has gained valuable experience, and at 6/1, they represent the most likely team to challenge Arsenal from the bottom half of the draw.

The Giants’ Gauntlet (Man City 8/1, PSG 10/1, Liverpool 10/1, Real Madrid 12/1)

It is unusual to see four of the strongest teams in the competition at such long odds, but the brutal nature of the draw makes it unavoidable. The clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid means one of the pre-tournament favourites is guaranteed to exit in the Round of 16. The winner of that tie will likely face Bayern Munich. On the other side, defending champions PSG must overcome Chelsea and then potentially Liverpool. While any of these teams could win the tournament, they will have to do it the hard way, making them riskier outright bets than usual.