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Formula One World Championship Winner Odds

Track the development of Formula One World Championship winner odds with our historical trend data. Who will take the title, Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen?

With the 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship now underway, fans and bookies are backing their favourites. We’ve got the latest odds and historical data tracking how the bookies’ prices have changed over time.


We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:


2021 FIA Formula One World Championship  – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

  • 6th December – The first Saudi Arabian GP was a chaotic stream of incidents that left Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton at level pegging ahead of the final race. Hamilton led initially and pitted to switch tyres, ceding the lead to Verstappen in a tactical grab for more pace, before Mick Schumacher crashed into a barrier on lap 14. After Esteban Ocon pulled off a tremendous restart to take the lead, the race was suspended again on lap 15 after the second Haas, driven by Nikita Mazepin, crashed out. Following the second restart, the title contenders put their stamp on proceedings as they pulled further and further from the chasing pack. There was yet more drama on lap 38 as Hamilton hit the back of Verstappen’s Red Bull, not realising the Dutchman was surrendering the position after the stewards judged him to have gained an advantage by driving wide of the track during a battle. While Red Bull and Verstappen saw that incident as the turning point, it was clear that Verstappen didn’t have the tyres to outlast Hamilton for the remaining 12 laps, and nor did the Dutchman have enough of a lead over Ocon in P3 to risk pitting. With Hamilton taking the win and the fastest lap, both drivers will head into the Abu Dhabi GP on 369.5 points. This is only the second time in F1 history that there has been a Drivers’ points tie heading into the final race. While Verstappen leads the Championship thanks to his extra race win over Hamilton, the bookies have once again shortened the Briton’s odds to make him the firm favourite.
  • 22nd November – Whatever fine margins have been breached by Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes in recent weeks, the shift has made an impact. Hamilton cruised through qualifying and led every lap of the first Qatar GP, missing a Grand Slam finish only through losing the fastest lap to Max Verstappen late in the race. The Dutchman’s five-place grid penalty proved largely insignificant as he quickly fought his way into the race, but he couldn’t catch the Briton who, with his back against the wall, is reminding everyone why he’s on the verge of becoming the sport’s most-decorated driver. With only two races to go and a meagre lead of just eight points, Verstappen’s grip on the Drivers’ Championship is looking very light indeed, and the bookies have reinstated the World Champion as the favourite with a 61.77% chance of taking his eighth title.
  • 15th November – With Lewis Hamilton having been disqualified from his P1 finish in qualifying, along with being pegged back by a five-place grid penalty for having a new engine fitted, last week’s sentiment that the title is Verstappen’s to lose looked set to be all but confirmed. What followed in Sao Paulo is being hailed as one of the finest weekends of Hamilton’s career, and perhaps one of the finest performances in the sport’s long history. During the Sprint on Saturday, Hamilton made fifteen overtakes to rise from P20 to P5, a staggering performance in itself. With his grid penalty, this put Hamilton at P10 for the start of the Brazilian Grand Prix; a mountain to climb while Max Verstappen started in P2 behind Valterri Bottas. Against the odds, Hamilton cut through the competition like a man possessed, eventually storming past Verstappen after a dramatic tussle on lap 48 that saw both cars leave the track. Hamilton completed the comeback to finish in P1, reigniting his hopes of landing a record eighth Drivers’ Championship, cutting Verstappen’s lead to 14 points with three races to go, and reshaping our odds tracker in startling fashion. Verstappen’s odds of winning have dropped from 80.39% to 55.39% after just one race, while Hamilton’s have risen from 26.84% to 51.95%.
  • 8th November – The Mexican GP started with a flurry of high drama. Valterri Bottas, having landed a surprise pole position in qualifying, was abruptly routed by an overtake on turn 1 from Max Verstappen and a clip from Daniel Ricciardo that sent him spinning into the lower reaches of the grid. While Verstappen held firm in another drive of immense quality to finish in P1, Hamilton and Mercedes couldn’t recoup the losses dealt by Verstappen’s early speed advantage on intermediate tyres, finishing in P2. Bottas, however, provided some consolation to Hamilton by securing the fastest lap at the back of the pack to limit Verstappen’s gains. Nevertheless, with only four races remaining, Hamilton trails Verstappen by 19 points. Short of a disaster for the Red Bull driver akin to his spinning crash in Azerbaijan, it’s becoming hard to see past Verstappen as the favourite to take his first F1 Championship title.
  • 25th October – At Circuit of the Americas (COTA), the US GP came down to the finest of margins. After pitting for fresh tyres in lap 37 and gaining a significant speed advantage over Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton had a nine-second deficit to clear in 19 laps. Verstappen managed to hang on, winning by 1.3 seconds on heavily blistered rubber. Hamilton’s speed took a minute but critical decline as he closed in on Verstappen and lost the benefit of running through clean air, and he was unable to close the gap to under a second and activate DRS on the last straight. After another exemplary drive, Verstappen has extended his lead in the Drivers’ Championship to 12 points, with Hamilton landing the fastest lap to add an extra point to his reward for a P2 finish. Verstappen’s odds are the second-shortest they’ve been this season with a 70.99% chance of taking the title, while Hamilton’s are at his second-longest with a 35.98% chance.
  • 10th October – With a new engine fitted, Lewis Hamilton took a 10-place grid penalty in Turkey after finishing qualifying in P1. The setback proved too much to overcome, with the Briton finishing in P5 while Max Verstappen held on to his P2 position from qualifying and Valterri Bottas took his first GP win of the year. After fighting through the pack, Hamilton and his pit crew had a disagreement about stopping for new tyres, with the driver keen to last out the race on one set. His team won out and Hamilton came in to pit, but the new tyres’ graining cost him some crucial speed in the latter stages of the race and he was unable to break into the podium spots. The race in Istanbul saw Verstappen retake the lead in the Drivers’ Championship with a six-point advantage over Hamilton, and the bookies shortened the challenger’s odds once again.
  • 27th September – In Sochi, Lewis Hamilton had a ripe opportunity to retake the lead in the Drivers’ Championship as a penalty for a power unit change saw Max Verstappen start the race in P20. Lando Norris, battling for his first ever F1 victory, looked set to win the Russian GP until heavy rain hit the track in the last few laps. Hamilton, holding P2 and chasing Norris, went to the pits to change to intermediate tyres while Norris took the gamble of staying out on slicks. Without any grip, Norris lost a lot of pace and eventually skidded off the track, leaving the door wide open for Hamilton to claim an historic 100th win in Formula 1. Meanwhile, Verstappen fought from P20 to P2 in a sensational drive that overcame the odds and limited Hamilton’s gains in the Championship. Despite Hamilton taking a two-point lead, Verstappen remains the bookies’ current favourite.
  • 13th September – The Italian GP saw yet more drama in the race for the Drivers’ Championship as Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton crashed out together on lap 26. Attacking on the outside of turn 2, Verstappen ran out of room and made contact with Hamilton and the curb, bouncing into the air and landing on top of Hamilton’s Mercedes. Blame for the incident was pinned to Verstappen by the race stewards, and he will face a three-place grid penalty in the next race. In the absence of the title contenders, ever-popular Daniel Ricciardo stormed to his first win for McLaren while teammate Lando Norris took P2 and Mercedes’ Valterri Bottas finished in P3. While neither Verstappen nor Hamilton earned any points from the race, Verstappen’s P2 performance in the sprint extended his lead over Hamilton to five points.
  • 6th September – At the first Dutch GP in 26 years, Max Verstappen landed an emphatic victory on home soil that was met with bright orange smoke covering the finish line. Having secured P1 in Q3 with a margin of just 0.038 of a second over Hamilton, Verstappen put in a strong drive to win the race with almost 21 seconds to spare ahead of the reigning Champion in P2. Valterri Bottas also held his qualifying position to finish in P3. With the victory, Verstappen has retaken the lead over Hamilton by 3 points while Mercedes retain their lead in the Constructors’ standings with 12 points over Red Bull. The following day, Alfa Romeo announced that Bottas will be joining them next season in place of the retiring Kimi Räikkönen, and on Tuesday the 7th it was announced that George Russell will fill Bottas’s vacant seat at Mercedes.
  • 30th August – The summer break was brought to a close with a farcical Belgian Grand Prix that was all but cancelled due to torrential rain. The weather had been poor all weekend, with Lando Norris aquaplaning into a spinning crash during Q3 after having finished Q2 in pole position. The race itself was conducted over two laps behind a safety car, with plans to restart proceedings being repeatedly scuppered through the day by rain that wouldn’t let up. Max Verstappen, having led after Q3, finished in P1, George Russell landed his first F1 podium in P2, and Lewis Hamilton rounded out the top 3. As less than 75% of the race was completed, drivers were only awarded half of the usual points for their final positions.
  • 2nd August – After a five-car wipeout on the first lap instigated by a mistake from Mercedes’ Valterri Bottas, Verstappen’s car managed to continue the race but was too heavily damaged to mount a comeback. As the Dutchman clawed his way to 10th and a single Championship point, Hamilton was denied a latecoming charge to P1 by some outstanding defensive driving from Fernando Alonso who in turn helped his teammate Esteban Ocon to his first race victory in F1. Hamilton’s P3 finish was later upgraded to P2 as Sebastian Vettel was disqualified for having too little fuel to satisfy the mandatory 1-litre sample post-race. With an 8-point margin over Verstappen, Hamilton’s odds shortened to reinstate him as the favourite for the Drivers’ Championship.
  • 19th July – The British GP was dubbed a must-win for Hamilton’s Championship bid, and the Briton delivered despite taking a 10-second penalty for an incident that eliminated Verstappen from the race. Neither driver was interested in taking responsibility for the contact that saw Verstappen hit the barrier with 51G’s worth of force, and it seems the gentlemanly discourse between the competing favourites has been lost to the intensity of the fight. Having trimmed Verstappen’s lead to 8 points, Hamilton’s odds shortened for the first time in six races.
  • 5th July – The second race at the Red Bull Ring in as many weeks saw Verstappen win yet again while Hamilton dropped to fourth and missed a spot on the podium. Verstappen dominated once again and finished almost 18 seconds clear of Valterri Bottas in P2 while Hamilton and Mercedes rued pace-weakening damage to his car. With a 32-point advantage over Hamilton, Verstappen’s odds shortened to 80.95% to mark him as the firm favourite for the Championship. The victory also saw Verstappen bring home his first career Grand Slam, having finished first in qualifying, led every lap of the race, and recorded the fastest lap of the Grand Prix.
  • 28th June – Another dominant performance from Max Verstappen sees the Dutch driver’s odds shorten again as his victory widened the gulf between him and Lewis Hamilton to 18 points. Verstappen’s lead grew from the first lap to the last, with Hamilton simply unable to keep pace with the Red Bull despite a typically clean and professional drive. Hamilton later admitted he needs “an upgrade of some sort” to regain his footing.
  • 21st June – Max Verstappen put in an outstanding performance on a two-stop strategy to win the French Grand Prix. While both Mercedes drivers ran on one pit stop, their ageing tyres couldn’t outlast the Red Bulls’ superior pace. Verstappen took the lead from Hamilton on lap 52 while Valterri Bottas lost out to Sergio Perez for the last spot on the podium. This hugely competitive race and its thrilling conclusion have seen Verstappen’s odds of winning the Drivers’ Championship overtake Hamilton’s for the first time, with the Dutchman’s odds shortening to 55.36%.
  • 7th June – An eventful Azerbaijan GP saw Verstappen retire from the race after a tyre fault left him spinning down the main straight whilst holding P1 in lap 47 of 51. The race was restarted from the grid with Sergio Perez in P1 and Hamilton breathing down his neck in P2, but the Englishman’s brakes locked up on the first corner and he veered off the track, leaving him in P15 with no points while Perez brought home his second F1 win and his first for Red Bull. With Hamilton failing to capitalise on Verstappen’s DNF, bookies lengthen his odds again, while shortening odds on Verstappen.
  • 24th May – After the Monégasque Charles Leclerc was forced to retire ahead of his home Grand Prix despite landing P1 in qualifying, Max Verstappen’s inherited P1 position was all but insurmountable on a track where overtaking opportunities are notoriously rare. Hamilton maintained his uncharacteristically weak P7 position from qualifying, with a tactical error allowing Sebastian Vettel to edge ahead and into P6. Bookies lengthen Hamilton’s championship odds, while shortening odds on the victorious Verstappen.
  • 10th May – Despite Max Verstappen holding the lead for the majority of the race, an effective pit stop strategy saw Lewis Hamilton make a statement with another P1 finish in Barcelona and 15.841 seconds to spare ahead of Verstappen in P2. As a result, bookies shortened Hamilton’s odds, while lengthening odds on Verstappen.
  • 4th May – Hamilton strengthens his position as Championship favourite with a straightforward victory in Portugal. Verstappen’s probability of winning the championship drops, but he maintains his position as the only challenger at the bookies after finishing second.
  • 19th April – Lewis Hamilton claimed pole position in a hotly contested qualifying for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, before rain caused chaos during the race. Hamilton came off the track before battling back through the field to claim second but this time it was Max Verstappen who took the victory. This saw Verstappen’s probability increase from 41.72% to 47.49%.
  • 8th April –In the build-up to the Bahrain Grand Prix, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen dominated the practice sessions, qualifying in P1. Mercedes’ Hamilton and Bottas came in at P2 and P3, respectively. On race day, Hamilton held off fierce competition from Verstappen to edge home and get the first win of the season.

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

F1 World Championship Winner Odds

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Marcus has been a Deputy Editor at Compare.bet since joining the team in 2020. He has a degree in English and American Literatures, three years' experience as an editor, and bylines in The Times, iGamingFuture, Audioxide, GameRant, and Business Chief. Outside the online gambling space, Marcus spends his spare time listening to as much music as possible, praying for West Ham, working on his guitar skills, and trying not to suck at chess.