With the 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship now underway, fans and bookies are backing their favourites. We’ve got the latest odds and historical data tracking how the bookies’ prices have changed over time.
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2021 FIA Formula One World Championship – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:
- 2nd August – After a five-car wipeout on the first lap instigated by a mistake from Mercedes’ Valterri Bottas, Verstappen’s car managed to continue the race but was too heavily damaged to mount a comeback. As the Dutchman clawed his way to 10th and a single Championship point, Hamilton was denied a latecoming charge to P1 by some outstanding defensive driving from Fernando Alonso who in turn helped his teammate Esteban Ocon to his first race victory in F1. Hamilton’s P3 finish was later upgraded to P2 as Sebastian Vettel was disqualified for having too little fuel to satisfy the mandatory 1-litre sample post-race. With an 8-point margin over Verstappen, Hamilton’s odds shortened to reinstate him as the favourite for the Drivers’ Championship.
- 19th July – The British GP was dubbed a must-win for Hamilton’s Championship bid, and the Briton delivered despite taking a 10-second penalty for an incident that eliminated Verstappen from the race. Neither driver was interested in taking responsibility for the contact that saw Verstappen hit the barrier with 51G’s worth of force, and it seems the gentlemanly discourse between the competing favourites has been lost to the intensity of the fight. Having trimmed Verstappen’s lead to 8 points, Hamilton’s odds shortened for the first time in six races.
- 5th July – The second race at the Red Bull Ring in as many weeks saw Verstappen win yet again while Hamilton dropped to fourth and missed a spot on the podium. Verstappen dominated once again and finished almost 18 seconds clear of Valterri Bottas in P2 while Hamilton and Mercedes rued pace-weakening damage to his car. With a 32-point advantage over Hamilton, Verstappen’s odds shortened to 80.95% to mark him as the firm favourite for the Championship.
- 28th June – Another dominant performance from Max Verstappen sees the Dutch driver’s odds shorten again as his victory widened the gulf between him and Lewis Hamilton to 18 points. Verstappen’s lead grew from the first lap to the last, with Hamilton simply unable to keep pace with the Red Bull despite a typically clean and professional drive. Hamilton later admitted he needs “an upgrade of some sort” to regain his footing.
- 21st June – Max Verstappen brought home his first career Grand Slam at the French GP after putting in an outstanding performance on a two-stop strategy. While both Mercedes drivers ran on one pit stop, their ageing tyres couldn’t outlast the Red Bulls’ superior pace. Verstappen took the lead from Hamilton on lap 52 while Valterri Bottas lost out to Sergio Perez for the last spot on the podium. This hugely competitive race and its thrilling conclusion have seen Verstappen’s odds of winning the Drivers’ Championship overtake Hamilton’s for the first time, with the Dutchman’s odds shortening to 55.36%.
- 7th June – An eventful Azerbaijan GP saw Verstappen retire from the race after a tyre fault left him spinning down the main straight whilst holding P1 in lap 47 of 51. The race was restarted from the grid with Sergio Perez in P1 and Hamilton breathing down his neck in P2, but the Englishman’s brakes locked up on the first corner and he veered off the track, leaving him in P15 with no points while Perez brought home his second F1 win and his first for Red Bull. With Hamilton failing to capitalise on Verstappen’s DNF, bookies lengthen his odds again, while shortening odds on Verstappen.
- 24th May – After the Monégasque Charles Leclerc was forced to retire ahead of his home Grand Prix despite landing P1 in qualifying, Max Verstappen’s inherited P1 position was all but insurmountable on a track where overtaking opportunities are notoriously rare. Hamilton maintained his uncharacteristically weak P7 position from qualifying, with a tactical error allowing Sebastian Vettel to edge ahead and into P6. Bookies lengthen Hamilton’s championship odds, while shortening odds on the victorious Verstappen.
- 10th May – Despite Max Verstappen holding the lead for the majority of the race, an effective pit stop strategy saw Lewis Hamilton make a statement with another P1 finish in Barcelona and 15.841 seconds to spare ahead of Verstappen in P2. As a result, bookies shortened Hamilton’s odds, while lengthening odds on Verstappen.
- 4th May – Hamilton strengthens his position as Championship favourite with a straightforward victory in Portugal. Verstappen’s probability of winning the championship drops, but he maintains his position as the only challenger at the bookies after finishing second.
- 19th April – Lewis Hamilton claimed pole position in a hotly contested qualifying for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, before rain caused chaos during the race. Hamilton came off the track before battling back through the field to claim second but this time it was Max Verstappen who took the victory. This saw Verstappen’s probability increase from 41.72% to 47.49%.
- 8th April –In the build-up to the Bahrain Grand Prix, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen dominated the practice sessions, qualifying in P1. Mercedes’ Hamilton and Bottas came in at P2 and P3, respectively. On race day, Hamilton held off fierce competition from Verstappen to edge home and get the first win of the season.
Current odds to win the 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship:
|Driver||Fractional odds||American odds|
Above odds sourced via bet365 and updated 19/07/2021
About the data
We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.