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Premier League Top Four Odds

Track the development of Premier League top four finish odds with our historical trend data. Get the latest odds and see how they change as the season comes to a close.

With six to seven teams regularly in with a shout of a top-four Premier League place, the fight for Champions League qualification has never been so competitive. We’ve gathered the latest odds and a detailed odds history, showing how bookies have rated each top ten team’s chances of qualifying for European football’s top table.


We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:


2021/22 Premier League Top Four Finish – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

  • 27th September – Manchester United fall away from the leading pack slightly after losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. Arsenal and Spurs remain neck and neck after the Gunners resounding 3-1 North London derby win, but both sides are a long way off the four favourites.
  • 20th September – A second loss in two games for Spurs, this time against Chelsea, means the Lilywhites continue to fall away from the leading pack chasing a top four spot.
  • 13th September – Tottenham’s 3-0 loss away to Crystal Palace sees them drop away from the top-four race. Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United all win.
  • 31st August – Odds are lengthened on Liverpool after a draw at home against Chelsea, who were reduced to 10 men. Odds are shortened on Manchester United, following a victory over Wolves and the signing of Cristiano Ronaldo.
  • 24th August –  Bookies shorten odds on Chelsea and Spurs after weekend victories. Odds are lengthened on Manchester United following a draw with Southampton. Odds are also lengthened on Arsenal and Leicester after defeats at the hands of top four rivals Chelsea and West Ham respectively.
  • 17th August – Bookies lengthen odds on Arsenal after their loss against Brentford. Odds shorten on Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham who all win their opening games.
  • 16th June – Manchester are outright favourites for a Champions League berth following the release of the Premier League fixture list, sitting on 95.52%. There is little to split the next three favourites, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, while fifth-favourite, Leicester City, are way behind on just 19.91%.

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Premier League Top Four Odds

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