With six to seven teams regularly in with a shout of a top-four Premier League place, the fight for Champions League qualification has never been so competitive. We’ve gathered the latest odds and a detailed odds history, showing how bookies have rated each top ten team’s chances of qualifying for European football’s top table.
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2021/22 Premier League Top Four Finish – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:
- 18th April – Spurs and Arsenal’s odds fall as both teams lose. Tottenham are sunk late on by a spirited Brighton side, while Arsenal are beaten 1-0 by Southampton.
- 12th April – Tottenham’s resounding 4-0 win over Aston Villa sees their odds of a top-four spot shorten massively, while Arsenal’s woes continue as they 2-1 to Brighton
- 5th April – Huge changes here as Spurs take 4th spot away from the Gunners. Spurs claim a convincing 5-1 win over Newcastle, while Arsenal are thumped 3-0 away from home by Crystal Palace. Manchester City and Liverpool’s Champions League status is confirmed for next year.
- 21st March – Arsenal’s odds lengthen despite beating Aston Villa 1-0 in Birmingham. Tottenham keep the pressure on their North London rivals by beating West Ham 3-1.
- 14th March – Arsenal win once again, this time beating Leicester 2-0 to remain favourites for the final top four spot.
- 7th March – Arsenal’s surge back into the Champions League spots continues as they beat Watford 3-2, overtaking Manchester United who are humiliated by City in the derby.
- 28th February – Arsenal boost their odds yet again by beating Wolves for the second time in two weeks.
- 21st February – The Gunners win again, this time against Brentford, but their odds lengthen slightly.
- 14th February – Arsenal boost their chances of claiming a top four spot by beating rivals, Wolves, 1-0.
- 25th January – The dogfight for the final Champions League spot continues with United, West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs and Wolves all in the running. Spurs grab a last gasp winner against Leicester but fail to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge yet again. Arsenal can only draw 0-0 with relegation-threatened Burnley while United leave it late to beat West Ham at Old Trafford.
- 18th January – United’s shaky run of form continues as they draw 2-2 away from home to Aston Villa. The North London Derby is postponed following a request to call the game off from Arsenal.
- 4th January – United’s odds of reaching the top 4 fall to their lowest position yet as they lose 1-0 to Wolves.
- 30th December – Manchester United’s odds continue to fall as they are held to a 1-1 draw with Newcastle.
- 21st December – Arsenal become the latest team to close the gap on Manchester United for a top-four spot, beating Leeds 4-1 away from home.
- 14th December – United remain in their position as fourth favourite to reach next season’s Champions League, following their 1-0 win away to Norwich.
- 7th December – United’s constant yo-yoing continues as they pick up Ralph Rangnick’s first win at the club, beating Crystal Palace 1-0.
- 30th November – Manchester United’s odds of making a top-four spot stop lengthening for the first time in four weeks as Ole Gunnar Solskjær is replaced by Ralph Rangnick.
- 23rd November – Manchester United’s 4-1 loss to Watford sees Ole Gunnar Solskjær shown the door and the managerless outfit slip into eighth. Nonetheless, they are still in running to make a top-four placing this year, but only by the skin of their teeth; a newly resurgent Arsenal are closing the gap despite their 4-0 away loss to Liverpool.
- 8th November – Manchester United’s dismal showing in the Manchester derby sees their odds of reaching the top four fall again. West Ham and Arsenal are now level-pegging as they make a fresh surge for a top-four spot, but they are still 30% behind United despite both sides sitting above the Red Devils in the Premier League table.
- 2nd November – Arsenal’s recent purple patch sees their odds of making a top-four spot shorten slightly.
- 26th October – Manchester United’s slide away from the three favourites for a top-four spot continues as they are thumped 5-0 at home by Liverpool.
- 18th October – A second loss in three league games for Manchester United means they are still struggling to keep pace with Liverpool in third-favourite.
- 27th September – Manchester United fall away from the leading pack slightly after losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. Arsenal and Spurs remain neck and neck after the Gunners resounding 3-1 North London derby win, but both sides are a long way off the four favourites.
- 20th September – A second loss in two games for Spurs, this time against Chelsea, means the Lilywhites continue to fall away from the leading pack chasing a top four spot.
- 13th September – Tottenham’s 3-0 loss away to Crystal Palace sees them drop away from the top-four race. Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United all win.
- 31st August – Odds are lengthened on Liverpool after a draw at home against Chelsea, who were reduced to 10 men. Odds are shortened on Manchester United, following a victory over Wolves and the signing of Cristiano Ronaldo.
- 24th August – Bookies shorten odds on Chelsea and Spurs after weekend victories. Odds are lengthened on Manchester United following a draw with Southampton. Odds are also lengthened on Arsenal and Leicester after defeats at the hands of top four rivals Chelsea and West Ham respectively.
- 17th August – Bookies lengthen odds on Arsenal after their loss against Brentford. Odds shorten on Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham who all win their opening games.
- 16th June – Manchester are outright favourites for a Champions League berth following the release of the Premier League fixture list, sitting on 95.52%. There is little to split the next three favourites, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, while fifth-favourite, Leicester City, are way behind on just 19.91%.
We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.