Love Island 2022 Winner Odds

Keep track of the Love Island winner odds as new faces join the villa and recouplings see contestants get sent home. We've got the latest odds and historical data showing how they've changed after each night in the Love Island villa.

All eyes are on sunny Mallorca as Love Island returns for its eighth season in 2022. Our Love Island Winner odds page offers the latest odds, updated daily as well as a detailed odds history, showing how each participant’s chances of winnings have been rated by the bookies since day one at the Love Island villa.


Love Island Winning Couple Latest Fractional Odds (via Bet365)

Davide & Ekin-Su 1/8
Andrew & Tasha 11/1
Luca & Gemma 11/1
Dami & Indiyah 22/1

We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:


Love Island 2022 Winner – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

July 27th

We’re coming up to the final stages of Love Island 2022, and what a year it’s been. The talent show was entertaining as always, and as the season winds down, we’re beginning to see cracks in Luca and Gemma’s relationship already.

It’s looking extremely likely at this point that the winners of this season of Love Island will be Davide and Ekin-Su. It’s certainly not been an easy ride for them, but fans have grown to love them both individually, and as a couple – it looks incredibly hard to catch them now, and our odds trackers have them both in the lead by miles.

July 21st

We’ve said goodbye to Billy and Summer, and they’ve been replaced by four new bombshells as we approach the end of Love Island 2022.

  • Ekin Su’s popularity with the bookies continues to rise, and it looks as if she is the overwhelming favourite to win this year’s season with Davide. But who knows what could happen with the two new girls saying they are interested in the Italian Stallion.
  • Adam and Paige are second favourites, and their relationship has gone from strength to strength since Jacques left. Will things stay solid, or will we see the Adam we grey to hate five years ago?
  • Gemma and Luca are third favourites, but they are trending downwards, mostly due to Luca’s behaviour in recent episodes. He and Dami have lost a lot of public support due to the way they’ve treated Tasha.

July 17th

Love island fans have been waiting for movie night from the moment the girls returned to the villa from Casa Amor, and it did not disappoint. There was fireworks with most of the couples having arguments, and tensions rose, here’s how the odds are looking:

  • Ekin-Su’s rise has continued, and she is now the overwhelming favourite to win the bookies, with an implied probability of 56.19%. If her and Davide can manage to survive until the end, it seems like they are the couple to beat.
  • Paige is in second place with the bookies, and her new relationship with Adam seems to be going very well recently – will it be plain sailing for her until the end now, or is there more drama to come?
  • Gemma’s odds have dropped significantly in the past few days, and its mostly because Luca, who she has been coupled up almost all season, has proven to be pretty unpopular with the public.
  • Davide’s implied probability isn’t as high as Ekin-Su’s, but he still holds a commanding lead at the top, with 48.24%.
  • Despite only being in the villa for a very short time, Adam is the second favourite with the bookies, at 33.11%.
  • Luca is in third, with his implied probability at 18.30%.

July 13th

The drama just keeps on coming in this year’s version of Love Island. The return of season four supervillain Adam Collard sent shockwaves around the villa and led to Jacques losing his head, and deciding to go home.

  • Ekin-Su is now a comfortable favourite with the bookies amongst the girls, at 38.67%, the highest she’s been all season.
  • Paige is in second place with 32.18%, despite the fact Jacques has left. Some people are expecting her to couple up with new bombshell Adam, and this could be interesting to keep an eye on.
  • Gemma has dropped down to third place, with her implied probability now at 28.61%.
  • Davide has shot up to first place amongst the boys, with him and Ekin-Su looking like a solid couple (somewhat surprisingly!)
  • Luca is second favourite with the boys, at 28.29%. It seems likely that he and Gemma will make it all the way to the final, so could be a dark horse to win it all.
  • New boy Adam is in third place amongst the boys, with an implied probability of 26.98%.

July 7th

The girls have returned from Casa Amor, and we had an explosive recoupling last night. Here’s how it all affected our Love Island odds tracker:

  • Gemma, who is seemingly the only girl in a solid couple now, has surged to first place, with the bookies giving her a 38.86% of taking home the crown.
  • Ekin-Su is just behind her with 37.4%, and fans are starting to love her and Davide’s chaotic romance.
  • Paige has dropped down to third place, with 28.63%. While she was away, she remained loyal to Jacques, but found out last night that he couldn’t say the same. We’ll see how that one all unfolds!
  • Luca is the favourite amongst the boys, having been the only one to stay loyal while the girls were away. He is up to 38.86% on the tracker.
  • Davide is in second place, with the bookmakers giving him a 35.76% chance of winning.
  • Jacques, who was the runaway favourite for a while continues to drop, with his odds of winning now down to 18.97%
  • Both Dami and Indiyah shocked everyone by recoupling last night, when it seemed they were so strong before Casa Amor, and have both seen their odds lengthen.

July 4th

Casa Amor is here, and our Love Island odds tracker is heating up. Here are the latest updates as the couples have been split up into two different villas.

  • Paige’s lead with the bookies is going down every day, dropping down to 38.29%, having been above 50% not too long ago. Casa Amor new boy Billy has shown some interest in the Welsh paramedic, could she possibly leave Jacques?
  • The big surprise this week is Ekin-Su’s huge rise in the odds tracker. The bookies now have her as second favourite with 26.43%, having been as low as 3.64%.
  • Indiyah has dropped down to third, but is just a whisker behind Ekin-Su, with 25.2%.
  • Like his partner Paige, Jacques’ percentage chance of winning according to the bookies has tumbled this week. It’s now at 30.32%, meaning he is only in first by a few percentage points.
  • Davide has shot up the tracker recently, and has now gone up to second place with 28.96%. He has become a fan-favourite thanks to his dry humour and hilarious facial expressions.
  • Dami is now in third place, dropping down slightly to 25.56%

June 30th

  • Paige remains the favourite with the bookies to win amongst the girls but has seen her lead at the top decrease a bit in the past week to 44.44%. She and Jacques are back together officially after the recoupling, and remain the two to beat.
  • Indiyah’s surge in popularity since she coupled up with Dami has continued this week, and she is now the second favourite to win with a 30.10% of winning.
  • Gemma has fallen to third place, with her now at 20.61%. Ekin-Su is the big talking point, as she has rocketed up the rankings to 13.09% – Could her and Davide rekindle their early romance?
  • Jacques remains the favourite amongst the boys to win, with a 40.73% chance to win according to the bookies. Some fans are starting to worry about the way he has been acting around Paige recently, so he could be dropping soon.
  • Dami is continuing to rise in the rankings and now is the second favourite to win with the bookies at 29.37%. 
  • Luca has dropped to third place with the bookies and has steadily been on the decline in the last week. He’s now at 22.50%, with Davide not far behind him with 17.94%

June 22nd

  • Paige is the bookies’ favourite amongst the girls to win Love Island this year, with a 44.19% chance of winning. Her relationship with Jacques is blossoming and they have already become one of this year’s hottest couples.
  • Gemma, daughter of ex-footballer Michael Owen, is quite far behind Paige in second, with 26.75%. Despite currently being coupled up with Davide, her and Luca are expected to rekindle their relationship at the next recoupling.
  • There’s very little difference between Tasha in third and Indiyah in fourth. Tasha is at 17.75%, and Indiyah, who has recently started a relationship with Dami, is at 16.40%.
  • Jacques is the current favourite to win amongst the boys with the bookies, with a 36.63% chance of winning this year. He arrived to the villa with some controversy as he is Gemma’s ex-boyfriend, but him and Paige look like the couple to beat so far.
  • Luca is just behind Jacques in second with 31.14%. He is currently coupled up with Danica, but will almost definitely recouple with Gemma at the next opportunity.
  • Dami is in third place with 17.03%. He was coupled up with Amber until she was dumped from the island, and quickly moved to Indiyah. With sparks already flying between these two, don’t be surprised to see them both shoot up the trackers.

About the data

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Love Island Winner Odds

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Previous Love Island Winners:

Year Male Winner Female Winner
2021
Liam Reardon Millie Court
2020
Finn Tapp Paige Turley
2019
Greg O’Shea Amber Gill
2018
Jack Fincham Dani Dyer
2017
Kem Cetinay Amber Davies
2016
Nathan Massey Cara de la Hoyde
2015
Max Morley Jess Hayes

The people behind this page

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Daniel is Head of Operations at Compare.bet. He has half a decade of experience writing on topics including sports betting, online casino and the NBA. Daniel also covers Premier League football for Compare.bet news and has interviewed Louis Saha, Richard Dunne and Gary Pallister. In his spare time, Daniel enjoys film photography and making Spotify playlists.
Matt is an SEO Executive and joined us in April 2022. He studied in America for university and then trained as a sports journalist before joining. Matt loves all sports, particularly football, cricket and NFL. In his spare time, he can usually be found cooking or grazing on a village cricket outfield.