Love Island 2023 Winner Odds

All eyes are on South Africa as Love Island returns for its ninth season. Our Love Island Winner odds page offers the latest odds, updated daily as well as a detailed odds history, showing how each participant’s chances of winnings have been rated by the bookies since day one at the Love Island villa.

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Love Island 2023 Winner – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

• March 13th: We have reached the final episode of this season of Love Island, nearly two months after it started. Jessie and Will won’t be there though after they were dumped last night, which would have been more of a surprise had Maya Jama not lead it to all of her Instagram followers. Kai and Sanam look like they will be winning tonight, as the bookies have them at nearly 80% favourites.
• March 10th: From runaway favourites to fourth place, Will and Jessie’s plummet down the tracker has been a huge surprise. Last night everyone went out on dates, and when they came home voted on who they believe are the least compatible couple. Those with the fewest votes are at risk of being dumped tonight.
• March 9th: It’s now a three-way tie in second place behind favourites Kai and Sanam, while Shaq and Tanya look certain to be next to go home.
• March 8th: Casey and Rosie were dumped from the villa last night, leaving us with just five couples remaining. Will and Jessie, who have been top of the tracker since the end of January, are now third favourites with the bookies. Kai and Sanam are the new favourites, with an implied probability of 37.23%
• March 7th: It was the 50th episode of the season last night and the talent show was a good way to bring up the half-century. On the tracker, Kai and Sanam have both shot up into second place, with their implied probability almost doubling overnight. They now look like the biggest threat to Will and Jessie heading into the final episodes.
• March 6th: We are now just a week away until the end of the season. Last night’s episode had a bit of drama as Ron was getting antsy about what was being said behind his back and whether he was “playing a game” and it was all very silly. It’s the talent show tomorrow which always provides something completely mental to laugh at so that’ll be good.
• March 3rd: It was Claudia and Kaenan’s time to depart the villa last night as we get into the final trappings of this season of Love Island. Can Will and Jessie hold off the charge of Tom and Samie?
• March 2nd: We said farewell to Olivia and Maxwell last night, and Maya Jama also announced the date of the final is on Monday, March 13th. At that final Will and Jessie are still expected to win but the tracker is showing their lead shorten every day.
• March 1st: Jessie is having her commitment to Will questioned by the rest of the islanders, saying that her feelings for him are fake. That’s something that’s been spoken about a lot on Twitter so it’s interesting that has seeped into the Villa. That said, they’re still comfortable favourites for now.
• February 28th: We’re getting into the business end of the series, and the tracker shows that Jessie and Will are facing some competition, as they have had their lead cut by three other couples, and could easily get beaten by Ron and Lana, Samie and Tom or Sanam and Kai.
• February 23rd: Oh Love Island you big tease! We were promised movie night and instead we got half a movie night and more Shaq and Tanya arguing. We’ll have to wait until tonight until we get the full picture of how big this movie night actually is. See you tomorrow.
• February 22nd: In just a matter of days Shaq has gone from “I’m never getting back with Tanya again” to “I’ve never loved anyone like you before Tanya”. Movie night is tonight so we should see some big drama.
• February 21st: Tanya is an absolute nightmare and I’m here for it. Leaving Martin in their bed while she goes off to kiss Shaq, then stage-crashing a Jax Jones gig to say she’s broken up with Martin is completely mad behaviour but great nonetheless. Kai and Sanam had a date and saw their odds get considerably better, but let’s be honest, Jessie and Will are winning this season.
• February 20th: It was the classic post-Casa Amor apology episode yesterday, with Will telling Jessie he loved her by enlisting the entire villa’s help and Tom reading out a really average poem to win Samie back. Somehow they both worked and we’re back where we were.
• February 17th: Last night’s recoupling was a reminder of why we all love Love Island. Shaq’s ‘nice guys finish last’ speech, Olivia complaining about Kai recoupling when she had done the exact same thing, Will’s crying cheating confession and Samie finding out that Tom had kissed Lydia. Chef’s Kiss.
• February 16th: There was more chaos in both villas last night as islanders kept wavering from their couples and it’s still incredibly hard to keep up with who’s with who. As the reunion gets closer, we could be in for an explosive episode. Will all misdeeds be forgiven?
• February 15th: So much is happening it’s all quite hard to keep up with. I really hope there’s enough beds in that villa because it seems like basically all of them are going to recouple by the end of Casa. Will, Tanya and Olivia all kissed new islanders last night meaning there is literally not one safe couple left. Keep the drama rolling.
• February 14th: Happy Valentine’s day everyone and what better way to celebrate than with some Casa Amor drama. Will, who has been favourite to win with Jessie for most of the series looks to have had his head properly turned. In last night’s preview for tonight’s episode, we saw Will kissing one of the new girls on the terrace. You naughty, naughty boy.
• February 10th: It was a dramatic recoupling last night that led to Tanyel being dumped from the villa. Will and Jessie keep climbing on our trackers and now both have an implied probability of winning the series of 66.19%.
• February 9th: Motor racing legend Carl Fogarty’s daughter Claudia is the latest bombshell in the villa and sent hearts racing in the heart rate monitor challenge last night. We’ve got a girl leaving in a recoupling tonight, and if the trackers are to be believed, Ellie may as well pack her bags now. At the top, Will and Jessie are still miles clear and it seems as if something very surprising would have to happen for them to not win this series. Casa Amor, do your thing.
• February 6th: We saw two boys leave this weekend, with the islanders saving Kai and sending Spencer and Aaron home. The other big talking point was Lana picking new boy Casey instead of Ron who she has been with most of the series. That’s definitely one to watch as it feels like that story hasn’t come to its end yet at all.
  February 3rd: Casey and Jordan began cracking on yesterday and seem to have got some heads turning. The bookies are massively favouring Jessie and Will to win the series, with both of their implied probabilities over 50%. If they get through Casa Amor, it’s hard to see anyone else winning it.
• February 2nd: Zara was the latest islander to be dumped last night, and was swiftly replaced by two new boys, Casey and Jordan. Shaq shot up the tracker yesterday after calling out Ron for his misdeeds and then telling Tanya he loved her, which…seems uncomfortably early in their relationship? But what do I know.
• February 1st: We were teased a recoupling at the end of last night’s show and it seems that Zara will be the next to leave, as the boys are picking and she is looking very vulnerable. Despite the fact there are enough people in there to fill a rugby team, there are really only two couples that seem fairly solid. Anyone else get the feeling that Casa Amor is going to be complete carnage? Bring it on.
• January 31st: There are 15 islanders at the moment after the arrival of new bombshell Samie, so prepare yourselves for some exits this week. Jessie and Will remain the favourites, while Ron and Lana are still in second despite Ron changing his mind on who he likes every five minutes. Zara and Aaron look the most likely to be leaving us next, while Spencer and Ellie are far from safe.
• January 27th: New bombshells Spencer and Ellie were grafting away last night and at the recoupling Spencer chose Olivia, and Ellie picked Ron. Aussie Jessie has proved to be very popular since she joined and coupled up with Will, as they continue to rise up the tracker. Still a long, long way to go yet though.
• January 26th: Ever since I made sub-par Will Young puns about how he was soon to be heading home, he’s been surging up the tracker, and now is the bookie’s favourite. We saw Haris and Anna May leave last night, two new bombshells, and Aussie Aaron look like a dead man walking. The bookies have his implied probability of winning under 5%, probably due to news stories coming out that he’s a pretty awful bloke.
• January 25th: We had our second islander leave last night, with Haris packing his bags. Probably for the best, since a video went viral on Twitter yesterday of him scrapping in the street before his Love Island days. Not the best look. Also in this episode, a bunch of grown adults played ‘never have I ever’, there was the most awkward kiss TV has ever seen, and Olivia and Zara continue to hate each other and no one really knows why. As you were.
• January 24th: We have two new bombshells. Former Love Island Australia stars Aaron and Jessie have blown things open in the villa and are turning heads already. Everyone seems very confused about who they want to couple up with leading to all sorts of drama. It feels like this season is really starting to get going.
• January 23rd: This weekend saw our first elimination, with David being dumped from the villa. Ron and Lana remain big favourites on our tracker, despite Tanyel picking Ron at the recoupling, leaving Lana very upset.
• January 20th: It all got quite heated last night when Shaq and Haris had a big bust-up over basically nothing. There was a decent amount of blokey ‘hold me back’ antics for the viewers to enjoy, despite nobody really knowing why this was such a big deal. The first recoupling is coming soon, which will surely add some extra tension to the villa.
• January 19th: Will Young was grafting away last night, but it looks as if his time won’t be evergreen, and I think he better leave right now. The bookies have him as the favourite to be the first to be dumped from the villa. Get Gareth Gates in ’til the end of the season.
• January 18th: New bombshell Tom started to crack on last night, but sadly this bombshell wasn’t very…bombshelly. Viewers weren’t hugely impressed with him, reflected by the fact his implied probability dropped from 23% when we first saw him to 17% after we saw him speak. Ouch.
• January 17th: Love Island 2023 is officially underway with a brand new set of islanders and Maya Jama as the new host. Make-up artist to the stars Lana is the early favourite amongst the girls with the bookies, while financial advisor Ron has taken an early lead for winning male. These odds will change plenty as the season rolls on, so make sure to follow this page for all the latest Love Island odds.

About the data

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Previous Love Island Winners: