Ballon d’Or Betting Odds

The Ballon d'Or is the most prestigious individual award a footballer can win. Check out historical trend data to track the odds of the current favourites as well read up on history of the award.

The Ballon d’Or is the premier individual prize in football and you can expect to find the usual suspects in the running for the award, as well as some new faces. Our Ballon d’Or odds page offers the latest odds and a look at the current favourites, showing how each participant’s chances have been rated by the bookies since the end of the trade deadline.

We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:

Ballon d’Or 2022 Winner – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

  • 7th April – Benzema’s odds soar once more as he scores yet another hat-trick, this time away to Chelsea in the Champions League. Lewandowski’s superb domestic scoring record sees him maintain his position as favourite, despite Bayern’s struggles against Villarreal in Europe.
  • 15th March – Lionel Messi’s odds of retaining his Ballon d’Or crown slip as PSG are knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid. Karim Benzema’s implied probability surges as he scores a hat-trick to knock out the Parisians.
  • 18th February – Salah’s odds remain level despite losing in the AFCON final with Egypt. Lewandowski’s odds take a slight dip, while Riyad Mahrez suffers the biggest decline after a disappointing AFCON campaign with Algeria.
  • 31st January – Liverpool and Egypt’s Mo Salah leads the pack after a blistering first half of the season with the Reds. Robert Lewandowski is just behind the winger, while teammates Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe are the third and fourth favourites.

About the data

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Ballon d'Or in a Nutshell

Everything You Need to Know About the Ballon d’Or

Let’s take a look at what the Ballon d’Or is, how it’s decided and who has won it in the past.

Ballon d’Or History

The Ballon d’Or is an annual award presented by France Football to the best performing footballer over the past calendar year. The award is generally considered the highest individual honour a football player can receive. The first Ballon d’Or was awarded in 1956 to Stanley Matthews.

From 2010 to 2015 the Ballon d’Or was merged with the FIFA World Player of the Year Award, though it is now once again independently awarded by France Football. Since 2018 an award has also been presented to the best female player, the Ballon d’Or Feminin.

Ballon d’Or Voting

The Ballon d’Or winner is chosen from 30 nominees by a panel of journalists. The 30-man shortlist is chosen by the editorial staff of France Football, and then an international jury of journalists from a number of different nations vote for the winner. Each country has one representative journalist. A full ranking of all nominees is given during the ceremony before the winner is announced.

Each journalist selects their top five best players, with six points going to the first selection, four to the second, three to the third, two to the fourth and one to the player listed in fifth. The voting is based on set criteria, which are considered in the following order:

  1. Individual and collective performances from the past year
  2. Player class, which France Football defines as “talent and fair play”
  3. The player’s overall career

Ballon d’Or Winners

For the majority of its history, the Ballon d’Or has produced a wide variety of winners, with a new player taking the prize most years. However, from 2008-2017 the award was shared exclusively between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, both winning a record five each whilst playing for La Liga clubs Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively, and Manchester United in the case of Ronaldo.

Real Madrid’s Luke Modric broke that stronghold by winning the 2018 award, and though both Ronaldo and Messi are still in contention, the award is now much more open than it has been for most of the past decade.

Lionel Messi was named 2019 FIFA Player of the Year, beating Virgil van Dijk and Cristiano Ronaldo. The former Barcelona forward won a record sixth Ballon d Or title.

Player Number of Wins
Lionel Messi
7 (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021)
Cristiano Ronaldo
5 (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017)
Michel Platini
3 (1983, 1984, 1985)
Johan Cruyff
3 (1971, 1973, 1974)
Marco van Basten
3 (1988, 1989, 1992)

2022's Favourites

The Favourites to Claim the Award in 2022

Mo Salah

The mercurial Egyptian forward has been in the form of his life since the start of the 2021/22 Premier League season. He has been scoring for fun in both England and Europe, netting over 20+ goals before the end of January, and is the runaway favourite to claim this year’s Premier League Golden Boot.

He finished seventh in the 2021 Ballon d’Or, marking the third year running that he’s finished outside the top three. He has had more success with the FIFA Men’s Footballer of the Year award, finishing third for the second time in 2021.

Having lost in the final of 2022’s Africa Cup of Nations, Salah will be hoping for a strong end to the season and the opportunity to claim the Ballon d’Or for himself.

Robert Lewandowski

Robert Lewandowski has undoubtedly become the world’s best striker in the last two years, scoring 55 goals in the 2019-20 season and 48 in 2020-21. The Polish striker has been in similarly sparkling form this campaign, netting goals left right and centre in both the Bundesliga and in international competitions.

He has been unfortunate in recent years when it’s come to the Ballon d’Or, however, with his sensational recent form coinciding with the disruption caused by the pandemic. He missed out on claiming the trophy in 2020 when the competition was cancelled and came second behind Messi in 2021 after the PSG man finally claimed a national trophy with Argentina.

But Messi’s struggles in Paris this season could leave the door open for the prolific Pole to finally lay his hands on the famed trophy, adding it to his Best FIFA Men’s Player Awards from 2020 and 2021.

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi has won the Ballon d’Or a record seven times in his career, with the latest coming in 2021 following his Copa America triumph with Argentina.

The diminutive forward is undoubtedly one of the greatest players of all time, but his form has dipped significantly since his high-profile move to PSG in the summer of 2021. With goals and assists hard to come by this time around, an opportunity could preset itself for his rivals to lay claim to the trophy. At 34, his opportunities are certainly running out.

Perhaps the only route to claiming an eighth Ballon d’Or is for Messi to help win PSG the title they crave the most, the UEFA Champions League. The closest the Parisians have ever got to the holy grail of European football was the final in 2020, which they lost to Bayern Munich. Could Messi be the man to bring them the success they crave so much?

Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe is one of the finest players of his generation and is destined to dominate world football for the next 10 years at least. But is now his moment to win a maiden Ballon d’Or?

The Frenchman already has four Ligue 1 titles and a World Cup to his name, all before the age of 24, a record few others in the history of the sport can match.

2022 could well be his last year at PSG, and with the prospect of a world title to defend in the winter, can the lightning-fast Frenchman claim European and world glory and cement his place in history?

Karim Benzema

Following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo from Real Madrid in 2018, few could have predicted that the man to fill his shoes would be Karim Benzema. The forward was seemingly ostracised from the French national team in 2015 and could only boast an inconsistent goalscoring record for Los Blancos.

But from 2018 onwards, the Frenchman has stepped up to the plate. He hasn’t slipped below 20 goals a season for four campaigns now and even earned a recall to the national side for Euro 2020.

With a first La Liga title in two years up for grabs and a world title to defend this winter, Benzema is in a solid position to argue his case for a Ballon d’Or.

Betting Tips

How to Make the Most Informed Bet

Most recent Ballon d’Or winners have won by a wide margin, with three of the last four winners gaining at least 200 more votes than second place. However, there were only 33 points between last year’s winner, Lionel Messi, and second-placed Robert Lewandowski, which means that picking a winner is not easy, so it’s important to do your research before betting on the Ballon d’Or.

It’s important to remember that award doesn’t simply go to whoever scores the most goals. Individual performances in certain tournaments and trophies won by a player are also big factors.

For example, while Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo recorded much more impressive numbers, Luka Modric’s 2018 win was largely put down to his performances during the 2018 World Cup. Modric led an unfancied Croatia to an unprecedented final, while Messi and Ronaldo both struggled to make an impact on the world’s biggest football competition.

This means its important to carefully consider each candidates achievements from the past year and pay close attention to the Ballon d’Or odds.


Can I bet on other football awards?

Yes. Some of the best football sportsbooks offer odds on awards like the FIFA Best Awards of the Premier League PFA Player of the Year.


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Please note that is not responsible for the content of third-party websites. – How Is the Ballon d’Or Winner Selected? – Lionel Messi: Barcelona forward wins Ballon d’Or for record sixth time

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Ben is deputy editor at, specialising in all things gambling and football. He has an MA in American History and extensive writing experience with bylines in a range of different publications, from Breaking the Lines to CLASH. As well as covering Premier League for news, he also writes about the Championship and a range of European football topics. In his spare time, Ben enjoys music production and playing football.
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