Our UK Next Prime Minister Odds page offers the latest odds and a detailed odds history, showing who the bookies favour to take charge at 10 Downing Street next.
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Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:
- 20th April 2022 – Liz Truss’s odds of becoming the next prime minister fall slightly as it is revealed only a quarter of the government’s pledged £220 million aid to Ukraine has been delivered. Having seen a dramatic fall in his implied probability last week, Sunak’s odds remain steady as he recovers from his police fine for breaking lockdown rules. Starmer remains the outright favourite, with the Labour leader expected to pile the pressure on Johnson and Sunak as MPs return to parliament.
- 14th April 2022 – Having received fines from the Metropolitan Police over ‘Partygate’, PM Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are both facing calls to resign from either side of the House of Commons. The news has tanked Sunak’s odds of being the next PM further, hitting a new low of 12.36% to make Liz Truss the new favourite Conservative MP at 17.88%. Keir Starmer’s stock has risen further in the bookies’ eyes, hitting a new peak of 24.21%, although again this would require a Labour win in a General Election. Short of an early election being called, which is very unlikely given the incumbent governments’ highly secure 77-seat majority, this will not be possible until May 2024. Despite the pressure coming from his own backbenches to resign, the impression here is that it’s more likely Johnson will continue as Prime Minister than step down for the time being.
- 7th April 2022 – Rising inflation, energy bills, and a widely-reported cost of living crisis have been placing considerable pressure on the Conservative government since the dust has settled around the alleged Downing Street parties. Cost of living crises have historically done significant damage to the standing of incumbent leaders, not least for the minister holding the purse strings. Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement has come under fire in the press for supposedly being insufficient in remedying or mitigating the current economic crises, and public opinion may also be soured by claims that his wife, Akshata Murthy, heiress to the billionaire founder of Infosys, has allegedly claimed non-domicile tax status. While the Chancellor remains the frontrunner with the bookies, his projected likelihood of becoming Prime Minister has dropped to 23.42% from a high of 42.88% in January. The Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, has conversely risen steadily to 21.78%, which is made all the more interesting by the fact he would require a General Election to have a chance of succeeding Boris Johnson in the event that the Prime Minister steps down.
- 12th January 2022 – With an historic election landslide under his belt, a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, and the next General Election being scheduled for 2nd May 2024, it has been expected that incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson would continue at 10 Downing Street for at least another two years. However, recent developments pertaining to a then-illegal party held at Number 10 on 20th May 2020 has changed the face of Johnson’s position. While we await the findings of Sue Gray’s investigation into the matter, many feel that the damage has already been done to Johnson’s premiership, owing to suggestions that the PM misled the House of Commons over whether any parties took place, dissent from his own Party, and polls suggesting the electorate has lost confidence in his leadership. In the event that Johnson resigns, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the current favourite to succeed him as Prime Minister.
About the data
We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.