Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: Derrick Henry and a Defense Can Take the Tennessee Titans Places

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

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Today’s Team: Tennessee Titans

Season Win Total: 9
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +100; No -120
Odds to Win Division: +175
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4000 

In a league that prioritizes quarterbacks and the passing game above all else, the Tennessee Titans remain decidedly old-school. 

Their offense is predicated around running back Derrick Henry, their defense is strong, and they just dealt their best wide receiver instead of paying him market value.

With A.J. Brown, the aforementioned star pass-catcher, and Julio Jones gone and Henry healthy again, there could be an even bigger focus on that philosophy in 2022.

As the rest of the NFL zigged, Tennessee zagged its way to a 12-win campaign and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs a year ago. Can they possibly use that formula for more success this year?

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Return of Derrick Henry: Tennessee gave the ball to Henry early and often in 2021, much like they had done in previous years. However, the workload may have finally caught up to him, as Henry suffered a Jones fracture that caused him to miss a significant chunk of the campaign. Henry is back and ready to once again spearhead the offensive attack. Even if he doesn’t have the same efficiency as at his peak, Henry’s presence still dictates the way a defensive coach chooses personnel and calls plays, which is an invaluable piece of Tennessee’s offensive success.

The Division: The Indianapolis Colts are the favorites in the AFC South, but the Titans are expected to be their only real competition, as the oddsmakers don’t have much faith in the Jaguars or Texans. Tennessee gets four games against those bottom-feeders, and even if it can’t wrest the division from Indy, a or 4-2 intra-division record would be a big help in the push for a playoff berth, especially as teams in the AFC North and AFC West beat up on each other.

Jeffery Simmons: Potential morphed into production in 2022, as Simmons finished the year with 8.5 sacks and a Pro Bowl selection. Safety Kevin Byard is another star and Tennessee has good players throughout the defense, but Simmons leads the way, and he could be in line for a monster campaign. 

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Titans

Ryan Tannehill over 3,600.5 passing yards (-105): There isn’t much faith in a big season from Tannehill, and it’s understandable. He had the worst season of his three-year Titans tenure in 2021 and now will be relying on a pair of newcomers (Treylon Burks and Robert Woods) compared to Brown and Jones in the passing game. Even so, his yards per attempt figure of 7.9 with the Titans is very good, and it’s unlikely rookie Malik Willis takes over at any point because Tennessee should be in the divisional hunt all year long. Tannehill is a value here.

Ryan Tannehill over 21.5 touchdown passes (-110): Double-dipping on Tannehill. Yes, of course Henry will get a bunch of touchdown opportunities near the goal-line, and the lack of elite pass-catchers is problematic. But this is barely more than one touchdown pass per contest. Tannehill has thrown for 76 touchdowns in 45 games with Tennessee. Tannehill’s touchdown total is tied for second-fewest among available quarterback wagers, behind only Justin Fields.

Ryan Tannehill has 76 touchdown passes in 45 career games with the Titans.

I get that A.J. Brown is gone, Malik Willis looms, etc., but O/U 21.5 TD passes this season seems quite low.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 30, 2022

Ryan Tannehill over 23.5 touchdown passes and 3.5 rushing touchdowns (+330): Oh, yes, folks. I just tripled-down on Tannehill. Seriously, I think the oddsmakers are underplaying his ability to throw touchdown passes, as previously mentioned. And while Tannehill isn’t generally viewed as a dual-threat signal-caller, he has some surprising wheels. Tannehill has rushed for seven touchdowns in each of the past two years, and his legs are a legitimate weapon around the goal-line. This underdog play seems very attainable. In fact, I just locked it in right now.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

RB Derrick Henry to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1400): Henry is 28 years old now and has been given a humongous workload the past few years. Add in the injury, and it’s completely understandable why many will want to fade him this year. But I’ll say this: The Titans are likely going to ride him heavily once again in 2022 in the second-to-last year of his contract. It’s entirely possible Tennessee wins the AFC South behind the last great year of Henry’s career, which would put him in the OPOY conversation.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

It’s just really hard to see a Super Bowl ceiling with this group. Last year was the perfect blueprint toward competitiveness, as Tennessee somehow grabbed the top seed and a first-round bye. Even then, it fell to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round.

Now there is little question the Titans are worse off in the passing game without Brown and Jones. If the defense becomes elite Tennessee could be good again, but overall, this feels like a franchise in the state of transition.

Tannehill and Henry are both getting older and could be out the door in a matter of a year or two. If things go south (and they certainly can) it could be the last hurrah for a surprisingly successful stint for Tennessee.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Tannehill can keep this team afloat through the air, and Burks has the potential to be an A.J. Brown clone, at least based on his measurables. Woods has made a quick recovery from his torn ACL, while tight end Austin Hooper is another player that could make a splash on offense.

Between Henry and the defense, the Titans have a pair of known quantities that should excel, while the schedule is pretty light. It’s not a stretch at all to see the Titans coming away with another division title, even if their ceiling doesn’t scream ‘Super Bowl contender’ in 2022.

But mostly, bet on those Ryan Tannehill props this football season.

The Best Titans Bet For 2022: Ryan Tannehill over 21.5 touchdown passes (-110)