All odds accurate at the time of publishing on 16th November 2020.
Italy to Win @ 4/11
Italy are currently 1 point ahead of the Netherlands in Group A1 and know a win in this game would see them qualify for the Nations League finals. The Azzurri are undefeated in their last 21 matches, winning 16 games and have also won 7 of their last 8 away games. They won 3-0 the last time they played away in Bosnia, a Euro 2020 qualifier in November of last year, and judging by their hosts’ recent form, a repeat of that result could be on the cards. Bosnia have only won 1 of their last 10 matches, a 3-0 victory over Liechtenstein in November last year, and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. We can’t look past the away side for this one and we’re backing Italy for the victory at 4/11 with Coral.
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Italy’s 2-0 win over Poland on Sunday was the latest in a run of games that have all featured 3 or fewer goals. In total, 18 of their last 24 matches have all seen under 3.5 goals scored, including 7 of their last 9 away games. There have been exactly 35 goals in the Azzurri’s last 10 games, an average of 3.50 per game, but 10 of those came in a single game: their 9-1 victory over Armenia in November last year. Bosnia, meanwhile, have seen under 3.5 goals scored in 9 of their last 10 games and there have been 25 goals scored in those matches, an average of 2.50 per game. Even with Italy being comfortable favourites in this one, we can’t see the scoreline exceeding 3 goals and we’re backing under 3.5 goals at 20/43 with 10Bet.
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Bosnia and Herzegovina have only scored once in their last 4 matches. Smail Prevljak’s strike in the 63rd minute of their 3-1 defeat to Holland on Sunday was Bosnia’s first goal since Rade Krunic put them 1-0 ahead against Northern Ireland back in October and was their first in 4 games. The Bosnians have failed to score in 4 of their last 9 games in total and have only managed 7 goals in total in that time. Italy, meanwhile, have one of the meanest defences in Europe at the moment, having kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 matches overall and in each of their last 4 away matches. And there seems to be some serious value in backing them to continue that run — another Italian shutout in this one is 21/20 with Ruby Bet.