Predicting The Arizona Cardinals’ 2023 Win-Loss Record Post-Schedule Release

The NFL schedule was released on Thursday, giving us dates for every game on the 2023 slate.

The Arizona Cardinals won’t have any primetime games this season, which is not a surprise considering their woeful win-loss projection and the injury to Kyler Murray.

They have the lowest regular season win total in the NFL with an over/under of 4.5. FanDuel currently offers the best payout for the ‘over’ at -102 odds. BetRivers has the best odds for those betting the under at +120.

Can the Cardinals get to five wins in 2023? 

Here is my early-offseason breakdown, with the caveat that projections can and will change as Murray’s timeline to return gets clearer as the season gets closer.

Week 1: Cardinals at Commanders

The Commanders are expected to be extremely mediocre, and will either be starting Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in this one. Even so, the Cardinals have opened as 6-point underdogs, as Colt McCoy and a wretched defense are expected to be on display for the first time in D.C.

I think this game will be sloppy, and I like the Cardinals to cover, but for Washington to win.

Game Prediction: Commanders 20, Cardinals 17
Overall: 0-1

Week 2: Cardinals vs. Giants

The Giants made the playoffs a year ago and have upgraded the roster this season. Even so, I’m still not buying that Daniel Jones is anything more than an average quarterback.

Maybe he proves me wrong, but I can see a scenario in which the Cardinals force a turnover or two on defense and protect the quarterback well enough to put up some points.

Look, it’s some early-season optimism!

Game Prediction: Cardinals 24, Giants 23
Overall: 1-1

Week 3: Cardinals vs. Cowboys

As Lin-Manuel Miranda would say, the Cardinals will be outgunned, outmanned and need all the help they can get.

Dallas comes to town for a pseudo home game — just like the old days — and smokes Arizona.

Game Prediction: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 16
Overall: 1-2

Week 4: Cardinals at 49ers

Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, who cares? Put Uncle Rico back there and the 49ers still roll at home.

Game Prediction: 49ers 37, Cardinals 17
Overall: 1-3

Week 5: Cardinals vs. Bengals

Uh, yeah, this is a tough three-game stretch. It’s Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Co. against a defense without a pass-rush or cornerbacks.

What could go wrong? Everything.

Game Prediction: Bengals 33, Cardinals 20
Overall: 1-4

Week 6: Cardinals at Rams

How the mighty have fallen. Two years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl and the Cardinals were an NFC contender. Now they sit in the bottom of the conference barrel.

If Matthew Stafford is healthy, he will carry Los Angeles to a home win. The quarterback discrepancy is just too large.

Game Prediction: Rams 23, Cardinals 20
Overall: 1-5

Week 7: Cardinals at Seahawks

Is Kyler back on the field, or nearing a return by mid-October? Only time will tell. With him, the Cardinals would have a puncher’s chance in this one, but Seattle has a superior overall roster and the home field advantage.

More pain.

Game Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
Overall: 1-6

Week 8: Cardinals vs. Ravens

The Cardinals took a shot at Lamar Jackson in their schedule reveal, calling the Ravens’ MVP signal-caller a running back.

pic.twitter.com/oW1Nmk6NLx

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) May 11, 2023

With the way the Arizona defensive line is shaping up, they might be right on this day. Baltimore will repeatedly gash the worst defensive front in the league and cruise to a win.

Game Prediction: Ravens 31, Cardinals 21
Overall: 1-7

Week 9: Cardinals at Browns

Honestly, I don’t think the Cardinals will be favored in any of their first nine games of the season. Cleveland closes out this challenging stretch and unless Deshaun Watson continues to struggle with the Browns, it’s hard to see Arizona grabbing a road win here.

Game Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 20
Overall: 1-8

Week 10: Cardinals vs. Falcons

Will the season ostensibly be over with a 1-8 start? Yes. But the question here centers on the win total, and here comes a make–or-break stretch.

I’d expect Murray to be on the field by this point, and even though Atlanta has a superior roster across the board, the gulf between Kyler and Desmond Ridder is the size of the Grand Canyon.

Gimme that dub, baby!

Game Prediction: Cardinals 28, Falcons 23
Overall: 2-8

Week 11: Cardinals at Texans

By this point we will have a good idea about the trajectory of the season for both Houston and Arizona. Could the Cardinals be on pace for two top-5 picks, or even Nos.1 and 2?

The rooting allegiances will be interesting when this game comes around. From a competitive standpoint, Kyler Murray trumps C.J. Stroud, but the Houston run game should eat against the Arizona defense.

I think the Texans win this game at home, cementing Arizona as the favorite to get the top pick.

Game Prediction: Texans 20, Cardinals 17
Overall: 2-9

Week 12: Cardinals vs. Rams

The 78 fans in the stands will be absolutely buzzing for this NFC West showdown. With Murray back, Los Angeles no longer has the lopsided superiority at QB. 

Add in the location — I’m not going to call it a home field advantage — and Arizona is the pick to squeak it out.

Game Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 22
Overall: 3-9

Week 13: Cardinals at Steelers

This could be the Kyler-carries-the-Cardinals game in 2023, like Las Vegas was last year. The Steelers have a dominant pass-rush but Murray’s escapability can neutralize it. 

Some off-schedule chunk plays, combined with a poor effort from young Pittsburgh signal-caller Kenny Pickett, could result in an upset.

Game Prediction: Cardinals 21, Steelers 20
Overall: 4-9

Week 15: Cardinals vs. 49ers

This one should be closer than the first matchup. Still a blowout, but a closer blowout.

Game Prediction: 49ers 33, Cardinals 18
Overall: 4-10

Week 16: Cardinals at Bears

The Bears should be markedly better across the board in 2023. There is a chance that Justin Fields doesn’t develop enough as a passer, but all of Chicago’s roster upgrades this offseason will be apparent when Arizona hits the Windy City.

Game Prediction: Bears 26, Cardinals 23
Overall: 4-11

Week 17: Cardinals at Eagles

Welcome back, Jonathan Gannon. Here’s a proper shellacking to remind you that the gulf between the Eagles and Cardinals is about the same as the physical distance between the two teams.

Game Prediction: Eagles 40, Cardinals 20
Overall: 4-12

Week 18: Cardinals vs. Seahawks

Don’t tell me there won’t be some drama in the regular season finale. The win total over/under outcome could be on the line!

Seattle is the better team but I’d still take Kyler Murray over Geno Smith in a heartbeat. I actually think Arizona wins this game if both teams play all their stars, but there is a question of draft positioning.

The Cardinals may very well be in a battle for the No. 1 pick in the finale, much like the Bears and Texans were last season. Chicago ostensibly lost on purpose while Houston won, flip-flopping their spots in the draft order.

Arizona has to be smart. Tank in 2023 to soar in 2024.

Game Prediction: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 14
Overall: 4-13

The final tally? The under, but by the slimmest of margins. BetRivers has the best odds to bet on that side of the wager.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals finish under 4.5 wins (+120 at BetRivers)