NFL MVP 2021 Winner Odds

Track the development of the NFL MVP odds with our historical trend data. Get the latest odds and see who the bookies rank as favorites to claim the NFL's Most Valuable Player hardware at the end of the 2021 season.

Our NFL MVP odds page offers the latest odds and a detailed odds history, showing how each player’s chances have changed throughout the season.


We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:


2021 NFL MVP  – Latest Developments on Odds & Favorites:

  • January 10th – The regular season is over, and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is expected to be named NFL MVP when the votes are tabulated. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is the main competition, while Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp are longshots.
  • January 4th – Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has emerged from a muddled field and is the clear-cut favorite to win MVP for the second consecutive season. It would be the fourth of his career, and the only real chance it doesn’t happen is if Tom Brady or Jonathan Taylor has a game for the ages in Week 18 to sway voters. Rodgers was never favored to win the award until the very end of the season, but it is now very much in his grasp.
  • December 20th – Just as Tom Brady looked like he was breaking away from the pack, the odds shifted massively again this week. The Buccaneers quarterback had a poor game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night as Tampa Bay was shut out. Brady’s odds have dipped, and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is now right on his heels. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is getting a lot of attention for the way he has dominated all season long, and now has the fourth-best odds to win MVP, though he is still a decided underdog.
  • December 15th – For the first time all season, there is a clear-cut favorite for MVP. Tom Brady continues to stack impressive outings and is the odds-on favorite to claim the award at 44 years old. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers seems like the only other player with a legitimate chance to knock him off because Cardinals signal-caller Kyler Murray fell off the pace last week. Brady would be the oldest MVP in NFL history, eclipsing his own mark set in 2017.
  • December 6th – Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady put some major distance between himself and the other candidates after throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday against the Falcons, albeit with a pick-six. Bills quarterback Josh Allen will need a solid performance on Monday night to make up some ground. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray are longshots but still in the race.
  • November 30th – It was another bad week for star quarterbacks, as very few of the front-runners played well in Week 12. That mostly means status quo, as Tom Brady remains the favorite with Josh Allen still on his tail. Even though the oddsmakers have chosen favorites, this feels like a wide-open race as the NFL season heads down the stretch. If any of the top quarterbacks dominate the rest of the way, it could be enough to snag the MVP.
  • November 23rd – Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has moved to the front of the pack in the MVP race. The 44-year-old superstar refuses to let age slow him down, looking every bit the same dominant force as in past years. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s odds dipped after a bad game against the Colts, while Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will need dominant finishes to the season in order to claim the award.
  • November 15th – Bills quarterback Josh Allen has not played like the MVP to this point but the betting markets have still crowned him the favorite as the second half of the season commences. He played well on Sunday, while Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady struggled and Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray missed a second straight game with an ankle sprain. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is gaining some ground and is now right in the mix.
  • November 11th – Despite mediocre numbers this season and a bad game against the Jaguars on Sunday, Josh Allen is the head-scratching MVP favorite. He will need to improve for this to come to fruition. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady continues his ascension and now has the second-best odds. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray didn’t play last week because of a sprained ankle and saw his odds drop slightly. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford rounds out the top four in the race.
  • October 25th – Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady made a major move after throwing for four more touchdown passes on Sunday against the Bears. Bills quarterback Josh Allen leads the pack, with Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott right in the mix. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the preseason favorite, is now a major longshot to win MVP.
  • October 19th – Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has moved back to the top of the MVP favorites after throwing four touchdown passes in a road upset of the Browns on Sunday. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has made a serious move of late, while Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains right in the mix. Justin Herbert’s chances took a big dive after the Los Angeles Chargers were routed on Sunday by the Ravens.
  • October 12th – Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was fantastic against the Chiefs on Sunday and has skyrocketed to the top of the MVP chase. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is right on his heels, while Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott are climbing steadily. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the preseason favorite, now has just the ninth-best odds to win the award.
  • October 5th – Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has surged ahead of the pack after an impressive performance on Sunday against the Rams. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, fell back after losing the duel. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is gaining steam, while Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains a contender. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is also getting into the mix.
  • September 28th – Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has zoomed to the top of the consensus MVP odds after a magnificent performance on Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A slow start for Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes has seen him slip, while Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray remains among the favorites. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson took a big step back this week.
  • September 23rd – Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains the favorite, but others are closing the gap. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has thrown nine touchdowns in two games, while Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has thrown for seven scores and rushed for two more. Those three candidates are ahead of the pack for now, but there is plenty of time for the odds to shift.


About the data

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

NFL MVP 2021 Winner Odds

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Previous NFL MVP Winners:

Year NFL MVP Winner Team
2020
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2019
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
2018
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
2017
Tom Brady New England Patriots
2016
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons
2015
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers
2014
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2013
Peyton Manning Denver Broncos
2012
Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings
2011
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers