Professor Rob WIlson has warned Manchester United that they will enter a doom spiral that could lock them out of competing for honours for a generation if they fail to secure European football this season, in an exclusive interview with Compare.bet.
Speaking in wake of United’s decision to sack Ruben Amorim as head coach, Wilson, who is Professor of Applied Sport Finance and Head of Executive Education at UCFB, also counted up the cost of that decision against the business they could have done in January.
Professor Wilson also gave his analysis of Celtic and Chelsea also opting to make changes in the dugout as they go into 2026.
Read the full analysis below.
Q: What happens now for Manchester United if they fail to secure Champions League football under a novice coach in Darren Fletcher?
“Manchester United missing out on European football this season would be an almost doomsday level scenario.
“A club of United’s status has to get out of this rinse and repeat cycle. They’re not performing that badly. They are within touching distance of the Champions League, which is worth at least £100 million to them next season. That would give them the financial flexibility that they need to then move on to the next phase, and then on to the next phase and the next phase.
“This season is a critical moment and if they fail to qualify again then the budgets have to be cut significantly and they end up within that middle group in the Premier League of also-ran teams that get stuck in that cycle for a very long time.
“Critics might argue Manchester United are already among the also-rans and have been for the last 10 years but they’ve still won more domestic trophies than most clubs during that period, and they’ve qualified for European competitions too, while spending big money on transfers.
“Where they have some insulation is in their multi-year sponsorship deals but only up to point. Some of those deals drop without European football.
“If they don’t qualify for Europe, it’s a disaster. If they don’t qualify for the Champions League, it’s bad news. They’ve taken a massive risk given what’s at stake this season by sacking Ruben Amorim but there were clearly things going wrong behind the scenes.
“If they fail to get into Europe, they get into a vicious cycle due to a lack of revenue generation, which has an untold impact on their financial health. They won’t be able to go out and spend money in the summer. They won’t be able to spend money next January. They will have to sell players. That could see them fall into that middle band of Premier League teams, they will find it increasingly difficult to compete to get back up to where they feel they sound be next year and the year after that and the year after that.
Q: You’ve said before that United risk falling into a cycle of diminishing returns if they didn’t stick with Amorim over not being able to afford to hire and fire more top level managers. What are their limitations now?
“Hiring and firing managers all comes out of the club’s transfer budget.
“People talk about debt and interest payments when it comes to United but the club has spent the thick end of £90 million over the last 10 years just on sacking managers. That’s a lot of players they’ve not been able to sign.
“They paid around £20 million to hire and sack Erik Ten Hag. They’ll by paying Amorim £15-16 million in compensation subject to whether he gets another job soon. That’s a £50 million player amortised over five years. That’s Antoine Semenyo.
“What United have done is sack Amorim and his backroom staff instead of buying Semenyo for £65 million.
“So sacking managers reduces United’s flexibility in the transfer market.
Q: How off-putting will the confused decisions of INEOS to extend Erik Ten Hag’s contract then sack him, chase Dan Ashworth only to fire him, now appointing Ruben Amorim only to change his brief, to sponsors and other partners?
“INEOS have said all the right things but the strategy hasn’t matched the outcomes.
“Rightly or wrongly, they went to buy themselves a system manager in Ruben Amorimon but then didn’t get him the players his system needed. They hired him mid-season so he didn’t have the time to work these types of managers want in pre-season. He finished 15th.
“They spent money in the summer transfer window but in terms of the money United have spent on previous managers, it’s the lowest spend for the past four managers. It can therefore be argued they haven’t really backed him in the transfer market, not for a manager who they hired with a very specific system, so that’s incongruent in itself.
“From a sponsor’s perspective, you’d be looking at United thinking that they are still one of the biggest or certainly one of the top three biggest football brands in the country so you’ll still get massive exposure. But there’s clearly turmoil inside the football club and the playing performance means that they cannot demand top dollar sponsorship deals anymore.
“I’d hate to be in the commercial team at United right now because you’ll have big budget targets to hit because they want to cash in on their status as one of the world’s leading football teams but you’ve not got the playing performance to match that.
“It’s a buyer’s market from a sponsor’s perspective. United will be losing at least 20% in value over the dysfunction and poor decision-making as well as the performances on the pitch. There are lots of rumors about Amorim having a fallout with Jason Wilcox, who by the way has never been a sporting director in his life. Omar Barada had never been a CEO before joining United either. There is clearly something in that leadership group that’s not right and we don’t know about it.
“If I was working on sleeve sponsorship, front of shirt sponsorship, training ground sponsorship and other packages, you’d be starting at offering just 50% of the requested price and you’d probably end up somewhere between 20-30 % less than what they are looking for. Sponsors will only be interested in paying less money rather than the kind of the record-breaking sponsorship deals that we’ve seen in the past.
Q: Ruben Amorim has suggested he’s brought in the back four because of how much it would cost for Manchester United to buy him all the players he’d need to play his preferred system. If United were to upgrade their squad to the level of their very biggest rivals at the top of the game right now, how much would that cost to match them on player quality, man for man?
“Half a £1 billion, easily. Without question. That’s on the assumption that you’re buying for a system that can work and be competitive in the Premier League.
“If United wanted to reshape their squad to possess quality on par with the clubs they see as their big rivals, they would need to spend £500 million on their squad to become competitive at the top end of the league.
“However, if they went out and spent £500 million in the summer, they’re not guaranteed to win the Premier League. Look at Liverpool this season.
“That £500 billion investment that United would need to make would have to be in terms of pure transfer spending too before considering money generated from sales before going out to bring other new players in.
“Spending money on its own is not the way to do it because you end up with players on big salaries and you pay over the odds on transfers and credit to INEOS, that’s what they appeared to be shying away from under Amorim. They drove their wage costs down and were more careful in the transfer market by not throwing money out after the wrong stuff.
“They’ve started to buy players with ceiling potential and so I think the trading model of Manchester United will start to really gear up over the next few years. Some people won’t like to see Manchester United selling those players for decent money rather than hoarding them and ending up getting nothing back for them.
Q: How much value do Manchester United lose on Kobbie Mainoo as an asset the less they play him?
“Kobbie Mainoo was up in the sort of price range where you now find Adam Wharton and Elliot Anderson of £90-100 million at the back end of last year.
“He’s probably dropped down to £65-70 million now and he’s retained some value because he’s still only young with massive potential still to be realised. There’s just no way United will get rid of him.
“They wouldn’t sell a player like that at this stage. When he’s 24 and they can get £150 million for him, that’s the sort of sale they should be looking at making.
Q: How much value have Manchester United lost on Marcus Rashford by forcing him out under Amorim?
“At one time, Marcus Rashford was a £100 million but he’s had a significant drop off and I don’t think he will get back to that level again.
“He had two very poor seasons at United so a valuation between £25-40 million probably feels about right. He’s playing better in Spain but it’s a less competitive league.
“United should have sold him at this peak. They chose not to and rewarded him with a massive contract and he went backwards. Sir Alex Ferguson would have sold him.
“You maximise the price of your outgoing players so you can replace them with the next wave. That’s what Sir Alex was so good at.
Q: What sort of risk does giving Rosenior a contract until 2032 present to Chelsea? It’s a similar contract length to when Potter was hired. How much compensation could he be due if he was sacked before the end of the season?
“Sacking Liam Rosenior before the end of this season would probably cost Chelsea around £30 million based on the length of the contract he has been offered.
“Rosenior to Chelsea is interesting because this is why a multi-club ownership model is useful for clubs. You develop talent, whether it be players or coaches, then bring them through to the top club in the network. However, it could be pretty disastrous for Strasbourg, or at least hugely disruptive.
“If Rosenior’s first season is a disaster and Chelsea decide to sack him, they would have to pay up on the contract. He won’t be on the sort of money that Pep Guardiola is on at Manchester City. His salary will be much more modest in that context. But he’ll still be on several million quid a year and that will cost Chelsea dearly if it doesn’t work out.
Q: How much will it have cost Chelsea to have sacked Maresca and replace him with Rosenior?
“If it’s true that Enzo Maresca was in talks with Manchester City then Pep Guardiola could save Chelsea £10 million this summer if he decides to call time on his spell in charge to give way for Maresca.
“The way compensation works for managers is that you are compensated for your contract duration until such a time as you get another job.
“Maresca is due something around £14-16 million plus a bit for his backroom staff but if he were to step into another job sooner rather than later, and we are led to believe he was in discussions with other clubs including AC Milan, that could change the amount Chelsea have to pay.
Q: How much value do Leeds United offer to Red Bull as a brand by staying up in the Premier League, especially with results against such a big, global club as Manchester United?
“Regardless of the other clubs in the Red Bull group, the Premier League is where you get the most exposure and eye balls so Leeds have become very valuable,
“Think about the usual buckets for uplift on these sorts of brands. When it comes to media exposure, the Premier League is among the best you can get. They’ll have seen an increase in merchandise and sales, and that halo effect can help across the entire group too.
“With Red Bull especially there’s also the flywheel of content that just works overtime for them across social media, YouTube and all those global activations they’re able to do.
“It’s even more interesting for Leeds because of the other investment that has come in from the USA so you’ve got that kind of nice little lean into the North American market as well. Brenden Aaronson, an American international, scoring against Manchester United will have been a nice bonus there too.
“It all helps, and then you have the spectacle of Leeds against Manchester United, which was always going to be a big game anyway, and watched by millions in the USA too, and it all looks pretty impressive for Red Bull.
Q: How long until we see Red Bull creep into the club’s name based on this sort of success to cement the branding opportunity?
“There are some things you don’t go near. If we were talking about a younger team without all that history, who have recently come up through the lower divisions, it would be a possibility. For an iconic name for a club like Leeds, you just can’t see it happening, certainly not in the same way that they’ve done the branding with Newcastle Rugby.
“I don’t think Red Bull Leeds United is or Leeds United Red Bulls or something like that would work. I think fans would kick off as well.
Q: Could we see Elland Road become the Red Bull Arena?
“Elland Road is a historic stadium and probably too precious to Leeds United to sell the naming right but renaming it as the Red Bull Arena or similar would likely bring in around £20 million a year to begin with and then increasing further as they become established again in the Premier League. You’re then taking upwards of £30 million a year.
“That would be a useful cash injection for the club’s financial sustainability regulations and Leeds have one of the longest waiting lists for season tickets in English football too. I think the fans would be unhappy but that waiting list wouldn’t drop because ultimately they all want to go and see their team play.
“Fans would still call it Elland Road. When Allianz went in and bought the naming rights to Twickenham, people still called it Twickenham. You’d probably end up with that sort of thing at Leeds.
Q: How much will it have cost Celtic to sack Wilfried Nancy after just eight games in charge?
“It has probably cost Celtic £5 million in total. That’s obviously less than what it costs a Premier League club to make such a drastic change and while they’ve been made to look silly with the appointment of Wilfried Nancy they have also been very decisive.
“They’ve reversed course fast enough to still be able to recover their season to some extent but they’re in a unique position so they can probably get away with it for a little while before these sorts of decisions upset sponsors or put off players or agents from dealing with them.
“However, the next managerial appointment will be quite important for who they may be able to attract to the club on that basis as well.
“Celtic probably is the most inefficient use of a resource advantage in world football at the moment.
“They should be the Bayern Munich of Scotland and miles in front but they’ve made some wrong decisions.
Q: What does it say about the state of things that two of the very biggest clubs in British football are placing their fates in the hands of interim bosses without permanent managers to lead them long-term?
“As our appetite for content has increased and shorter forms of content have become more popular so too have the appetites of some boardrooms. It’s now all about short-term performance. You’re not going to get a situation like what Jurgen Klopp had at Liverpool or Mikel Arteta at Arsenal or even Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United with these sorts of boardrooms now.
“I think gone are the days of these kinds of long serving managers because the value of winning has increased so much. Don’t expect Arnie Slott to stay around at Liverpool for a long time. Thomas Frank could be out of a job in 18 months or sooner. Don’t expect Pep Guardiola’s successor to stay around very long at City. Look back before Guardiola and the managerial turnover was high too.
“I don’t doubt that some of these managers are actually really quite talented people. They just need to get things right. Was Amorim a bad coach or did something else go wrong at United?
“It’s a sad indictment on some of the the crown jewels in British football when you look at Celtic and Manchester United that they’ve not been able to get it right.
“Is that down to the types of owners we are now seeing coming into football like private equity? That’s a tough question to answer.
“Instinctively I’d say,because ultimately a lot of the people who are buying clubs now are into it for profit maximisation and value inflation so that they can exit at some point or make some money. In order to do that, you need to generate success. If it was a sales business, you want to generate record sales. They run out of patience very quickly when those results aren’t being delivered on the field.
“By the same token, even if these owners weren’t around and we were back to owners from the 1990s and early 2000s, we’d still be talking about the same problem because of the amount of money that’s now in the game.
“Manchester United have to qualify for Europe. If they don’t qualify for Europe this season, they’re going to be screwed, regardless of who owns the club. Everyone knows that. The fans who are going week in and week out know that. They know what’s going on.
“So whilst we have that appetite for short-term gratification, and the money that goes with that, we will keep this cycle of hiring and firing for a long time.
