Liverpool vs Burnley Betting Preview, Predictions & Tips – Premier League Showdown at Anfield

Liverpool and Burnley meet in a Premier League tie on Saturday, 17th January 2026 at 3:00pm. Find predictions, stats and betting tips for the Premier League fixture below in this match preview.

Fixture Details

• Home Team: Liverpool
• Away Team: Burnley
• Competition: Premier League
• Matchday: 22
• Date: Saturday, 17 January 2026
• Kick-off Time: 15:00 (UK)
• Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

Match Overview

Key Predictions & Confidence Score

Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis

Tip 1. Value Bet: Both Teams to Score – No

Odds: @ 4/6 with Bet365

Value Rating: ★★★★☆

Analysis: Liverpool have kept 7 clean sheets this season and face a Burnley side that has struggled for goals, netting only 22 in 21 matches. Burnley’s away record is especially poor, with just 3 wins and a goal difference of -19. The Reds’ defensive solidity at Anfield, combined with Burnley’s lack of firepower, makes “Both Teams to Score – No” an appealing selection. While not quite an even-money tip, it edges well above the implied probability given Liverpool’s defensive record and Burnley’s blunt attack.

Tip 2. Player Prop Bet: Hugo Ekitike Anytime Goalscorer

Odds: @ 4/5 with Betfair

Value Rating: ★★★☆☆

Analysis: With Mohamed Salah potentially unavailable (AFCON/injury), Hugo Ekitike stands out as Liverpool’s main attacking threat. Ekitike is priced at 4/5 to score at any time, reflecting his advanced role and Liverpool’s dominance in both xG (31.85) and total shots (309) this season. Burnley’s defence has conceded 41 goals in 21 games, the second-worst in the division, and their susceptibility in transition plays into Ekitike’s skillset. Ekitike’s movement in the box and Liverpool’s high chance creation (42 big chances this season) makes this a solid prop, especially if Burnley are forced to chase the game.

In-Depth Match Analysis

Recent Form and Performance

Liverpool come into this clash sitting 4th in the table, with 35 points from 21 matches. Their home form has been a key factor, and they’ve averaged 1.52 goals per game (32 goals in 21). The Reds boast an average possession of 61.02% – among the best in the league – and their pass accuracy is a commanding 86.38%. However, their conversion rate in front of goal can be improved, having missed 34 big chances out of 53 created.

Burnley, by contrast, languish in 19th with just 13 points and a win percentage of 14%. They have conceded 41 goals (1.95 per game), exposing a leaky back line. Despite a shot accuracy of 39.81% (better than Liverpool’s 29.94%), Burnley have struggled to create volume, generating only 23 big chances and scoring 22 goals all season. Their recent results have seen them struggle to take points off the top half, and they enter this fixture as clear underdogs.

Tactical Breakdown

Liverpool, under Arne Slot, typically line up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritising high pressing, quick ball recovery, and dynamic attacking width. They dominate possession, circulate the ball with confidence, and frequently overload the flanks to create cutback opportunities. Expect them to push Burnley deep and create sustained pressure from the opening whistle.

Burnley, managed by S. Parker, will likely set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 5-4-1, aiming to frustrate Liverpool and limit space between the lines. Their best hope is through quick counters and set pieces, exploiting any gaps left by Liverpool’s advanced full-backs. The Clarets’ disciplined approach may keep things tight for spells, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by Liverpool’s relentless attack.

Key Player Matchups

• Hugo Ekitike vs Burnley’s Centre-Backs: Ekitike will seek to exploit Burnley’s slow defensive line. His movement and finishing are vital, especially with Burnley conceding nearly two goals per game.
• Liverpool Full-Backs vs Burnley Wingers: Liverpool’s attacking full-backs can leave space for Burnley to counter, but Burnley’s wide players will have to work hard defensively and could be pinned deep, limiting their impact.

Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis

Player Spotlight: Hugo Ekitike

With Liverpool’s attacking options impacted by injuries and international duty, Hugo Ekitike becomes a focal point. Ekitike’s ability to find space in the box and his sharp finishing are well suited to Liverpool’s high-volume attacking style. In a side averaging 309 shots this season, Ekitike should receive ample service. His movement has seen him get into promising positions, and Burnley’s defensive record (41 goals conceded) suggests he’ll have opportunities to extend his tally. Ekitike’s form could be decisive, especially if Liverpool are without regular talisman Mohamed Salah.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Who is the favourite to win the Liverpool vs. Burnley match?
   Liverpool are overwhelming favourites to win, based on league position, recent form, and head-to-head dominance.
2. What are the best betting odds for this match?
   The best odds for a Liverpool win are 2/9 with Bet365; the draw is available at 11/2 with Bet365, and Burnley are as long as 12/1 with Betfred. For value, Both Teams to Score – No is 4/6 with Bet365, and Hugo Ekitike to score anytime is 4/5 with Betfair.
3. Where can I watch the Liverpool vs. Burnley match?
   The match will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Premier League and NOW TV.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

All the data points to a dominant Liverpool victory: they lead Burnley in every key metric, from possession to shot volume and defensive solidity. Burnley’s low output in attack and poor away record leave them up against it at Anfield. The best value may be found in markets like “Both Teams to Score – No” and in player props such as Hugo Ekitike to score. If you are looking to place a bet, remember to compare sports betting sites for the best value and to consider sports betting bonuses before you wager. For more on Premier League odds, markets such as relegation odds and top 4 betting are also available.

Disclaimer & Responsible Gambling

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