Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup ends in disappointment for both Senegal and Iraq, who meet at BMO Field in Toronto already eliminated. Beaten in their opening two games, the pair cannot reach the knockout rounds — France and Norway have sewn up the top two — so this is a contest for pride and the avoidance of bottom place. Senegal, ranked 15th in the world and packed with attacking talent, start as clear favourites against an Iraq side back at a World Cup for the first time since 1986. Kick-off is 8:00pm UK time on Friday 26 June. Below are the confirmed details, predicted XIs and our best betting angles.
Match Overview
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | FIFA World Cup 2026 |
| Matchday | Group I, Matchday 3 |
| Date | Friday, 26 June 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 8:00pm UK |
| Venue | BMO Field, Toronto |
| Broadcast | ITV4 / ITVX (UK) |
Key Predictions & Confidence Score
Neither side has anything left to play for in terms of qualification, which can make a game unpredictable — but the gulf in quality is clear. Senegal have the firepower of Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr, while Iraq have shipped seven goals in two games. We expect the Lions of Teranga to sign off with a win, and there is a strong case for goals against a leaky Iraqi defence. Here are our best bets:
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal to Win | 1/4 @ Bet365 (80.0%) |
⭐⭐⭐ | The class gap is sizeable: Senegal sit 15th in the world and field a host of Premier League and top-European names, while Iraq have lost both games and conceded seven. Pride and the desire to avoid finishing bottom should be enough to drive the stronger side to victory. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Evs (1/1) @ Paddy Power (50.0%) |
⭐⭐⭐ | Iraq have been porous, conceding four to Norway and three to France, and Senegal carry a genuine attacking threat through Jackson, Mané and Sarr. With the handbrake off in a dead rubber, there is a real chance of a goal-laden game. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis
1. Value Bet: Senegal to Win
Odds: 1/4 with Bet365
Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Analysis: Even in a game with nothing riding on it, the difference in pedigree is hard to ignore. Senegal reached this World Cup unbeaten in CAF qualifying and boast a far more decorated squad than an Iraq side appearing at their first finals in 40 years. The Africans will want to avoid the embarrassment of a pointless campaign and a bottom-place finish, and on talent alone they should have too much.
2. Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: Evs (1/1) with Paddy Power
Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Analysis: Iraq’s defence has been the group’s most generous, leaking seven goals in two outings. Senegal, for all their struggles, still mustered three goals across defeats to France and Norway and have the attacking quality to punish a backline under pressure. With both teams free to play without fear, the goals should flow.
In-Depth Match Analysis
Senegal: Pape Thiaw’s side arrived in North America among the African favourites but have flattered to deceive, losing 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway to crash out at the group stage. The talent is undeniable — Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr and Édouard Mendy all feature — but defensive lapses have cost them dearly. With qualification gone, the motivation now is pride and ending a chastening campaign with a performance to remember.
Iraq: Graham Arnold’s Iraq are enjoying their first World Cup since 1986, having come through a marathon qualifying route — the AFC fourth round, a fifth-round play-off against the UAE and an inter-continental play-off win over Bolivia to grab the final spot. The finals themselves have been tough, with heavy defeats to Norway (4-1) and France (3-0) leaving them bottom of Group I. Compact and defensive by design, they will look to frustrate Senegal and chase a first goal of the tournament from open play.
| Team | Qualifying P | W | D | L | GF | GA | FIFA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | – | – | 15th |
| Iraq | Play-off route | – | – | – | – | – | 57th |
Potential Match-Winners
- Sadio Mané (Senegal): The talisman on the left and still Senegal’s biggest match-winner.
- Nicolas Jackson (Senegal): The Chelsea striker tasked with punishing a leaky Iraq defence.
- Aymen Hussein (Iraq): Iraq’s talisman and qualifying top scorer, their main hope of a goal.
- Zidane Iqbal (Iraq): The former Manchester United midfielder and Iraq’s most creative outlet.
Expected Line Ups for Senegal vs Iraq
Both sides have been settled in their selections: Senegal named an unchanged XI across both group games, while Iraq made just one change (in goal) between their defeats. With elimination confirmed, there is scope for a few fringe players to feature, but pride points towards near-strongest sides. Senegal line up in a 4-3-3 under Pape Thiaw, with captain Kalidou Koulibaly anchoring the defence and Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr leading the attack. Iraq, organised by Graham Arnold in a compact 4-4-2, lean on captain Jalal Hassan in goal and the experience of Aymen Hussein up top. Confirmed teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis
Senegal and Iraq have no senior international meetings on record, so Friday’s clash is a genuine first between the nations. With no head-to-head to draw on, the Group I table tells the story — both arrive already eliminated, having lost their opening two games as France and Norway pulled clear:
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| Norway | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| Senegal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| Iraq | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
Player Spotlight: Sadio Mané
Sadio Mané remains the face of this Senegal side, and the veteran forward will be desperate to bow out of a miserable group campaign on a high. Still a threat from the left, Mané’s pace, directness and eye for goal make him Senegal’s most likely match-winner against an Iraq defence that has struggled to contain anyone at this tournament. He is also the senior figure his younger team-mates will look to for a response after back-to-back defeats. Whether drifting inside to combine with Nicolas Jackson or stretching the play wide, Mané’s influence will go a long way to deciding whether Senegal sign off with the win their talent demands.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is the favourite to win Senegal vs Iraq?
A: Senegal are clear favourites. Ranked 15th in the world and boasting the more talented squad, they should have too much for an Iraq side that has lost both group games. Both teams are already eliminated, so it is a contest for pride.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: Live odds for our suggested angles (Senegal to win and Over 2.5 Goals) will be confirmed closer to kick-off. When prices are published, compare the leading World Cup betting sites for the best value.
Q: Where can I watch Senegal vs Iraq in the UK?
A: The match is scheduled for UK broadcast on ITV4 and ITVX, kicking off at 8:00pm on Friday 26 June.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
With both teams out of the running, Senegal vs Iraq is a dead rubber — but the talent gap still points one way. Senegal will want to salvage some pride from a chastening Group I campaign, and against the tournament’s leakiest defence our preferred plays are Senegal to Win and Over 2.5 Goals. Bear in mind that dead rubbers can throw up rotation and flat performances, so wait for the confirmed teamsheets before committing. For more World Cup tips and to compare World Cup winner odds, visit our main World Cup betting pages.
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