Tunisia and the Netherlands close out Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the contest as one-sided on paper as a group game gets. The Netherlands top the group and need only a draw to be sure of going through, while Tunisia — beaten heavily in both games and already eliminated — are playing for pride. Played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Thursday 25 June 2026, with a midnight UK kick-off in the early hours of Friday 26 June, this is about the Dutch finishing the job. Read on for our predictions, stats and betting tips.
Match Overview
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | FIFA World Cup 2026 (Group F) |
| Matchday | 3 |
| Date | Thursday 25 June 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 12:00am UK (Friday 26 June) |
| Venue | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
| Broadcast | BBC One (UK) |
Key Predictions & Confidence Score
The Netherlands have scored seven goals in two games and sit top of Group F, while Tunisia have lost both matches heavily and are already eliminated. With the Dutch in flying form and Tunisia’s defence porous, our recommendations back a one-sided Dutch win.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands to Win | 1/8 @ Paddy Power (89%) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Netherlands top the group, have scored seven goals in two games and need only a draw to progress, while Tunisia have shipped nine goals and are already out. At 1/8 they are about as short as favourites come, but the gulf in quality is enormous. |
| Netherlands to Win & Over 3.5 Goals | 5/4 @ Paddy Power (44%) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Dutch put five past Sweden last time out, and Tunisia have conceded four or more in both games. With Ronald Koeman’s side chasing top spot, a high-scoring Dutch win looks well priced. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis
1. Value Bet: Netherlands to Win & Over 3.5 Goals
Odds: 5/4 with Paddy Power
Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Analysis: The Netherlands have scored seven in two games and Tunisia have conceded nine, including a 5-1 loss to Sweden and a 0-4 defeat to Japan. Even with some Dutch rotation likely, another comfortable, high-scoring win is on the cards, and 5/4 offers real value. For more markets, see World Cup betting sites.
2. Player Prop Bet: Cody Gakpo Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: To be confirmed
Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Analysis: Cody Gakpo scored twice in the 5-1 win over Sweden and is the Netherlands’ most in-form attacker. Against a Tunisia defence that has conceded nine, he is a strong anytime-scorer candidate — a UK price was not published at the time of writing, so check the latest market before backing it.
In-Depth Match Analysis
The two sides meet in Kansas City with nothing alike about their campaigns — the Netherlands cruising, Tunisia already out.
The Netherlands top Group F after a 2-2 draw with Japan and a 5-1 demolition of Sweden, with Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey each scoring twice in that rout. Ronald Koeman’s side are level on points with Japan but lead on goals scored, and a draw guarantees their place in the knockout rounds — so expect some rotation.
Tunisia, by contrast, are eliminated. Beaten 5-1 by Sweden and 4-0 by Japan, they sit bottom with no points and a minus-eight goal difference. Hervé Renard — appointed mid-tournament after Sabri Lamouchi was sacked following the Sweden defeat — will simply want a more competitive showing from his side.
| Team | Qualifying P | W | D | L | GF | GA | FIFA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | – | 0 | 45 |
| Netherlands | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | – | – | 7 |
Tunisia won their CAF group without conceding a single goal; the Netherlands won their UEFA group unbeaten.
Group F Standings Before Matchday 3
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands): Scored twice in the 5-1 win over Sweden and is the Dutch danger man.
- Brian Brobbey (Netherlands): Also bagged a brace against Sweden and leads the line in form.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia): Tunisia’s creative spark and most likely route to a goal.
- Ellyes Skhiri (Tunisia): The captain anchoring the midfield.
Expected Line Ups for Tunisia vs Netherlands
Ronald Koeman could rotate with the Netherlands already in command of Group F, but a strong side is likely — captain Virgil van Dijk marshalling the defence, Frenkie de Jong dictating midfield, and Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey leading the line after their doubles against Sweden; record scorer Memphis Depay is in the squad but a doubt to start. Hervé Renard’s Tunisia, already out, are expected to set up in a 4-3-3 around captain Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri. Both XIs below are predicted and subject to late team news — especially the Netherlands’ — before kick-off in Kansas City.
Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis
Head-to-Head: This is the first competitive meeting between Tunisia and the Netherlands. They have met three times in friendlies, with the Dutch unbeaten — a 4-0 win in 1978 and 2-2 and 1-1 draws since — so there is little form between them to lean on.
Comparative Team Stats
| Statistic | Tunisia | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| Group F Position | 4th | 1st |
| World Cup Group Record | L2 | W1 D1 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 7 |
| Goals Conceded | 9 | 3 |
| FIFA Ranking | 45th | 7th |
Player Spotlight: Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo has been the Netherlands’ standout attacker at this World Cup, scoring twice in the 5-1 rout of Sweden. Cutting in from the left, the Liverpool forward combines pace, power and a clinical finish, and against a Tunisia defence that has conceded nine goals he should have chances aplenty. Even if Ronald Koeman rotates with qualification all but secured, Gakpo’s form makes him a natural pick in the goalscorer markets, with record scorer Memphis Depay waiting on the bench.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is the favourite to win the Tunisia vs Netherlands match?
A: The Netherlands are overwhelming favourites at around 1/8. They top Group F, have scored seven goals in two games and need only a draw to progress, while Tunisia (ranked around 45th) are already eliminated.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The Netherlands are as short as 1/8 to win, with the draw 7/1 and a Tunisia win a huge 22/1. The Netherlands to win and over 3.5 goals is 5/4 with Paddy Power. For more markets, check leading World Cup betting sites.
Q: Where can I watch the Tunisia vs Netherlands match?
A: UK viewers can watch the match live on BBC (BBC One), with streaming available on BBC iPlayer.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
The Netherlands should have far too much for an eliminated Tunisia at Arrowhead Stadium, needing only a draw to progress but more than capable of running up another big score. Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey carry the goal threat even if Koeman rotates, while Tunisia play only for pride under new boss Hervé Renard. For the latest prices, check our World Cup betting sites coverage before kick-off.
Disclaimer & Responsible Gambling
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