UFC 318 Preview

Dustin Poirier bows out of the UFC this weekend in his home state of Louisiana against rival Max Holloway. The pair have fought twice before, with Holloway putting his BMF title on the line in this third and final encounter.  Here we have some of the best bets from UFC 318.

Main Card

• Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier III – UFC BMF title (Lightweight)
• Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov (Middleweight)
• Kevin Holland vs.  Daniel Rodriguez (Welterweight)
• Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull (Featherweight)
• Michael Johnson vs.  Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight)

UFC 318 tips

1. Decision – Alternate Winning Method – Max Holloway – Dustin Poirier @ 7/10 (BetMGM)
2. Kevin Holland to win by Finish – Yes @ 4/5 (BetMGM)
3. Francisco Prado to win @ 4/6 (William Hill)

Tip 1: Decision – Alternate Winning Method – Max Holloway – Dustin Poirier @ 7/10 with BetMGM

Two of the UFC’s most experienced fighters go head to head as Dustin Poirier (30-9-0 1 NC) and Max Holloway (26-8-0) face off for the third time. Poirier is 2-0 up in the rivalry, beating Holloway on his UFC debut in 2012, while they fought to the distance for the interim Lightweight title in 2019, the Hawaiian’s first at 155lbs. Holloway stepped up as the Featherweight champion for the bout at relatively short notice and was competitive across the five rounds despite not getting the decision. Poirier went on to face Khabib Nurmagomedov in the first of two unsuccessful shots at undisputed gold, being submitted in the second round in 2019. The American’s second crack at the title was in his last fight, where he was ultra competitive before being submitted in the fifth round by Islam Makhachev. When he puts down his gloves in the centre of the Octagon this weekend, there will be no real questions left on Poirier’s esteemed career, which includes another successful trilogy which he won 2-1 over Conor McGregor.

Holloway has also been involved in another trilogy, albeit at Featherweight, which he lost 3-0 to Alexander Volkanovski, with the first two extremely close fights. The now 32-year-old will be desperate to avoid a second whitewash against Poirier and the unwanted record of being the first UFC fighter to end two trilogies without a win. A key difference will be the weight, Holloway took time to bulk up to Lightweight when defeating Justin Gaethje to win the BMF title at UFC 300 last April. A move back down to 145lbs followed, with the Haiwaan being knocked out by Ilia Topuria in the third round of their contest in October. Now fully committing to 155lbs and vowing to never go back down in weight, we could see a revitalised Holloway. However to get the victory, he will have to get past a man he is yet to beat and Poirier will no doubt be going all out to see out his career with a win. Like the first fight between these two, both men are still likely standing at the end.

Tip 2: Kevin Holland to win by Finish – Yes @ 4/5 with BetMGM

For the fourth time already in 2025 it’s a Kevin Holland (28-13-0, 1 NC) fight week as the busiest man in the UFC takes on Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0). Holland is 2-1 so far this year, opening up with a defeat at Middleweight to Reiner de Ridder before deciding to recommit to 170lbs. Wins over veterans Vincente Luque (Sub – R2) in March and Gunnar Nelson (UD) in June followed, with this booking against 38-year-old Rodriguez coming six weeks after his last fight. Holland famously had five fights during the Fight Island era in 2020, winning all five. Now locked in and focused on this new run at Welterweight, Holland is quickly gaining momentum taking out older fighters as he heads towards the top 10 of the division once again. Rodriguez has hit some form too, currently on a two fight win streak edging past Alex Morono (SD) last October before finishing fellow veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio (TKO – R3) in May. 

Before that Rodriguez was on a three-fight skid losing to Kelvin Gastelum (UD), Ian Machado Garry (TKO – T1) and Neil Magny (Sub – R3). While not as busy as Holland, this is D-Rod’s second outing this year, having only managed two fights in each of the last two calendar years. These two have been scheduled to fight twice before, but ahead of this it feels like the momentum is very much with Holland here. Holland has a six-inch reach advantage despite only being two inches taller than Rodriguez. Holland can end this within the distance; possessing the skill to win this at range on the feet, where he has six TKO wins, or on the ground, where he has five victories in the UFC via submission.

Tip 3: Francisco Prado to win @ 4/6 with William Hill

Francisco Prado (12-3-0) can get back in the win column here against Nikolay Veretennikov (12-6-0). Prado is only 23 years old and as a prospect is much better than his 1-3 UFC record suggests. The Argentinian is on a two-fight skid, losing to Jake Matthews (UD) and Daniel Zellhuber (UD) back-to-back. Matthews brought a wealth of experience, while the Zellhuber fight at Sphere was razor close and earned both men Fight of the Night bonuses. 

Veretennikov is 0-2 in the UFC losing to Danny Barlow via split decision on debut, while he was finished in the second round by ground and pound by Austin Vanderford last time out in February. Veretennikov has shown relatively low striking volume so far and doesn’t look to have the speed or defence to go deep in the UFC. Prado has shown talent and toughness so far and has remained competitive in striking numbers against talented opposition. He is perhaps a little on the small side when coming up against the bigger Welterweights but this match-up looks the right booking to get himself back on track.