US Open Betting Preview (men’s)

The final Grand Slam of the season gets underway at Flushing Meadows next week with the top men’s players set to battle each other, as well as the often-oppressive New York summer conditions. Jannik Sinner saw off allcomers last year to take the title, but he arrives with his fitness under a bit of a cloud this year after illness forced him to pull out of the recent Cincinnati Open final.

Sinner is bidding for a third Grand Slam of the year with only the French Open, which he lost to Carlos Alcaraz after going two sets up in the final, eluding him. The Spanish star arrives in great form after three consecutive Masters 1000 titles, but the American challenge could also be strong, following on from last year when Taylor Fritz made the final. Big-serving Ben Shelton has made huge strides and could be an outside shot to go all the way, provided he can handle Alcaraz in a potential blockbuster quarter-final.

Tip 1: Fritz to Hit 15+ Aces in Round 1 @ 5/6 with bet365

Fritz thrives on hard courts and has one of the most reliable serves on tour. In his last three US Open appearances, he’s averaged 13 aces per match and hit 15+ aces in each opening round. And at Wimbledon this year, the 27-year-old averaged 19 aces per match as he reached the semi-finals. He should pack far too much heat on his first serve for wildcard Emilio Nava in Monday’s opening round matchup.

Nava’s return numbers are modest, making the market attractive at 5/6 for Fritz to post at least 15 aces. With home support behind him and a hunger to improve on last year’s semi-final finish, expect Fritz to play assertively and regularly find the service box with precision.

Tip 2: Carlos Alcaraz to meet Ben Shelton (Quarter Finals) – Yes @ 5/4 with bet365

Carlos Alcaraz has managed his run-up to New York perfectly, skipping Canada to conserve energy and claiming the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set. The Spaniard boasts a tour-leading 54 wins in 2025 and seems to relish the electric atmosphere at Flushing Meadows. He will be desperate to make it to the sharp end of the event after suffering the ignominy of a second-round exit last year.

His first major challenge in the draw could come at the quarter-final stage where he is slated to meet sixth-seed Ben Shelton. The rising American star reached the last eight at Wimbledon and made the semi-finals at the Australian Open at the start of the year. He should blitz his way through a pretty routine-looking first week and have enough energy left to overcome potential fourth-round opponent Casper Ruud to set up an intriguing clash with Alcaraz. 

Tip 3: Alex De Minaur to win and each way @ 66/1 with bet365

Alex de Minaur is the US Open’s No.8 seed this year and he looks ready to make a deep run, as he did when he reached the quarter-finals for a second time in 2024. He boasts more wins on hard courts than any other player this year — 24 — and claimed a recent tournament win in Washington. His relentless court coverage, improved serve, and aggressive return game have made him a consistent threat in best-of-five formats. 

The Aussie has matured tactically and mentally, often outlasting higher-ranked opponents. If he can navigate early tests like Stefanos Tsitsipas and the in-form Karen Khachanov, a semi-final or better is well within his grasp at Flushing Meadows.