2022-23 NBA Futures Betting: When Will LeBron James Break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s Scoring Record?

LeBron James is only 1,170 career points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the NBA scoring record.  As with many things these days, you can wager on when he gets there. 

DraftKings has a variety of futures bets centered on James’ eventual passing of Abdul-Jabbar, so let’s take a look.

When will LeBron James Break the Scoring Record?

This is a pretty cut-and-dried question, with the deadline set for January 31, 2023, when the Los Angeles Lakers travel to play the New York Knicks. That is 46 games away, which means James would need to average 25.4 points per game to reach it.

James is averaging 25.8 points per game through six this year, averaged 30.3 last year and has a career mark of 27.1 points per contest. That is very doable if he plays in every game, which is why the +140 odds of James breaking the scoring record on or before the Knicks matchup is enticing.

The rub, of course, is that James has also missed games with increasing frequency as he’s gotten older.  If an injury sidelines him for a stretch, the points per game figure will keep increasing. For example, if he misses four games, that figure jumps to 27.9 points per game. The oddsmakers have pegged after the Knicks game as the favorite, with -190 odds LeBron breaks the record in February or beyond.

My pick: After the Knicks game -190

In Which Game Will LeBron James Break the Scoring Record?

Let’s drill down even further, shall we? There are a plethora of options for this bet, and all are longshot odds because of how hard it will be to pick the exact basketball game in which he breaks the record.

My favorite choice? A road game against the Pelicans on February 4, 2023.

The odds for James getting it there are set at +900, which is much more enticing than the +500 set for the Knicks game or the +550 set for the Pacers game on February 2nd. It’s impossible to know how healthy James will be for the next couple of months, but choosing this one gives us a plausible range between James playing in every game and missing up to eight. 

Russ to LeBron 😧 pic.twitter.com/2gsJGAOk6O

— NBA TV (@NBATV) October 29, 2022

If he plays in every game, he could still average 24.8 points per game or below from now on and not yet have the record. James usually scores more points than that, but he’s also 38 years old, and the physical skills could be finally starting to decline.

On the other end, if he misses eight games, he could average 30 points per game and be butting right up to the record heading into this matchup. I like that window enough to choose this game. It’s a relative crapshoot on when the record will actually be set, which means I’m certainly going to take a game with these better odds compared to the two prior.

Pick: James to break scoring record on February 4, against Pelicans +900

Will LeBron James Break the Scoring Record at Home or on the Road?

This is my favorite wager among them because of the way the schedule lays out. The contest against the Knicks is the third in a five-game road trip, which gives some cushion on either side if James is nearing the scoring record at that point in the year. 

Even if it comes at a different point, the Lakers are on the road quite a bit when this record could be in reach. From January 22 through March 1, Los Angeles plays 11 of its 17 games on the road. 

If a major injury happens and James doesn’t break the record until later in the season, well, at least it’s still a relative coin-flip that the road is the location for it.

Assuming good health, that five-game road trip looks like good value, because James could very well surpass Abdul-Jabbbar in one of those locations.

Pick: Road -175