Burnley vs Crystal Palace Betting Preview, Predictions & Tips | Premier League

Burnley and Crystal Palace meet in a Premier League tie on Wednesday, 3 December 2025 at 19:30 UK time. Find predictions, stats and betting tips for the Premier League fixture below in this comprehensive match preview.

Fixture Details:

• Home Team: Burnley
• Away Team: Crystal Palace
• Competition: Premier League
• Matchday: 14
• Date: Wednesday, 3 December 2025
• Kick-off Time: 19:30 (UK)
• Venue: Turf Moor

Match Overview

Key Predictions & Confidence Score

Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis

Tip 1 – Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals

Odds: @ 1/1 with Bet365

Value Rating: ★★★★☆

Analysis: Both teams have been involved in matches with goals this season—Burnley have conceded 27 and scored 15 in 13 games, while Crystal Palace have netted 17 and shipped 11. The last two head-to-head meetings produced three and two goals respectively, and both sides average over 1 xG per game. Palace have created 24 big chances, but also missed 26, showing a tendency to generate opportunities. Burnley’s defensive frailty and Palace’s attacking intent suggest this match could see plenty of goalmouth action. With the line set at 2.5, even a 2-1 or 3-0 type scenario – both historically common between these sides – would be a winner.

Tip 2 – Player Prop Bet: Jean-Philippe Mateta Anytime Goalscorer

Odds: @ 7/4 with Betfair

Value Rating: ★★★☆☆

Analysis: While neither squad boasts a top-3 league scorer, Mateta is likely to lead the line for Palace and has been central to their attacking play. He is supported by creative outlets like Ismaïla Sarr and Eddie Nketiah and will be up against a Burnley defence that has conceded 27 times in 13 matches this term. With Palace’s xG standing at 20.11 and Burnley allowing multiple high-quality chances per game, Mateta’s ability to find space in the box gives this prop a solid chance of landing, especially given the match-up with Burnley’s vulnerable back four.

In-Depth Match Analysis

Recent Form and Performance

Crystal Palace come into this fixture sitting 9th in the table with 20 points from 13 matches (5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). Their defence has been a key factor—just 11 goals conceded and 6 clean sheets demonstrate their ability to keep things tight, with a +6 goal difference. Palace’s attack is also in decent shape, having scored 17 and produced 24 big chances, albeit with a high miss count (26).

Burnley, meanwhile, are languishing in 19th, with 10 points from 13 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses). They’ve struggled at both ends: 27 goals conceded is one of the league’s worst records, and a -12 goal difference highlights their difficulties. Despite this, Burnley have scored 15 and can be dangerous when taking their limited opportunities, converting 11 out of 12 big chances created.

Tactical Breakdown

Scott Parker’s Burnley have tended to operate with a pragmatic approach, often deploying a compact midfield and looking to exploit set-pieces and transitions. However, their low average possession (39.59%) and modest pass accuracy (77.29%) suggest they are often forced to play without the ball, defending deep and seeking to spring quick counters via Marcus Edwards or Zeki Amdouni.

Crystal Palace, under Oliver Glasner, are more proactive. They average 42.76% possession and have a similar pass accuracy (77.17%) but are more aggressive in attack, leading Burnley in total shots (159 vs. 104) and successful dribbles (54 vs. 46). Palace’s aerial strength (244 successful duels) should also provide an advantage, especially in both boxes.

Key Player Matchups

• Marcus Edwards (Burnley) vs. Marc Guéhi (Crystal Palace): Edwards’ direct running is Burnley’s biggest attacking threat, but he faces Guéhi, one of the most reliable centre-backs in the division. Guéhi’s positional sense and athleticism will be crucial in nullifying Burnley’s counters.
• Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) vs. Burnley Centre-Backs: Mateta’s movement and physical presence up front could stretch a Burnley defence that has looked fragile under pressure, especially against teams that cross frequently and target aerial duels.

Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis

Player Spotlight: Jean-Philippe Mateta

With neither side featuring in the league’s top three for individual goal scorers, collective effort is essential. However, Jean-Philippe Mateta stands out for Palace. As their central striker, Mateta is integral to Glasner’s plans, frequently leading the line, pressing from the front, and being the focal point for crosses and cut-backs. While his seasonal tally is modest compared to the league’s elite, he has been Palace’s main outlet and is supported by the creative talents of Sarr and Nketiah. Mateta’s ability to convert chances—especially against a leaky Burnley defence—makes him a player to watch for goals or shot-based props.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Who is the favourite to win the Burnley vs. Crystal Palace match?
   Crystal Palace are clear favourites, with their superior league position, stronger defensive record, and the best odds at 4/5 (Betfair) for an away win.
2. What are the best betting odds for this match?
   The standout odds include Palace to win at 4/5 (Betfair), over 2.5 goals at 1/1 (Bet365), and both teams to score at 19/20 (Bet365). For player bets, Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime is 7/4 (Betfair).
3. Where can I watch the Burnley vs. Crystal Palace match?
   The match will be broadcast via the Premier League’s official partners. Please check local listings for live coverage and streaming options.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

Crystal Palace look the stronger side heading into this fixture, both statistically and in terms of form. Their defensive solidity and attacking threat, combined with Burnley’s struggles at the back, make Palace to win and over 2.5 goals appealing betting angles. Player markets, especially around Jean-Philippe Mateta, offer value against a porous Burnley defence. With both teams’ tendencies for open games, expect a competitive contest likely to feature multiple goals.

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