Formula 1 Miami GP Betting Preview

Formula 1 returns this weekend with the Miami Grand Prix following a five-week break due to the cancellations of the races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

It’s the second sprint weekend of the season, giving the drivers just one 90-minute practice session to get back into their rhythm behind the wheel before heading into Sprint Qualifying on Friday. The sprint race and Grand Prix qualifying will follow on Saturday, before 57 laps in the race itself on Sunday evening. All sessions will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports F1.

Setting the scene

The FIA confirmed adjustments to the regulations last week which will be effective from Miami this weekend, to appease driver concerns over safety and competition. Energy harvesting and deployment limits have been addressed with the aim of allowing drivers to push more in qualifying. Similar adjustments have been made in race conditions, with boosts capped and limits to power deployment to mitigate the dangerous closing speeds. Changes at race starts will also be trialled in Miami, ensuring drivers can pull away safely. 

Despite the changes in the regulations, it looks to be business as usual for Mercedes in Miami, with Kimi Antonelli having won the last two races in Japan and China. The Italian leads the Drivers’ Championship from team-mate George Russell, with both drivers optimising their superior Mercedes engines. Despite Antonelli’s recent form, Russell is the favourite to win the race at 11/8 with bet365, with the teenage star second favourite at 6/4. McLaren showed an upturn in performance last time out in Japan, with Oscar Piastri finishing on the podium after leading the race for the first 19 laps.

The Australian and his team-mate Lando Norris are next in the betting at 8/1 and 12/1. McLaren have won the last two races in Miami through Piastri last year and Norris the year before. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were in Monza last week testing a major update, which is expected to be on the car this weekend. It remains to be seen where this leaves the Scuderia, with Leclerc priced at 7/4 to finish on the podium and Hamilton at 2/1.

Tip 1: George Russell to win at 11/8 with bet365

Mercedes’ dominance so far this season looks set to continue in Miami, with Melbourne winner Russell the likely victor. The German team’s engine is deemed to be far superior to the rest of the field at this stage of the season. Russell was left frustrated last time out in Japan, when the safety car was deployed just after he had made his pit stop, handing an advantage to Antonelli, who had not yet stopped. He had looked strong in the early stages, though, and finished on the podium last year in Miami when Antonelli was only sixth in his sixth F1 race after starting third on the grid.

Tip 2: Oscar Piastri podium finish @ 10/11 with bet365

McLaren looked in much better shape in Japan and look set to continue that improvement around this circuit. Piastri won the race last year and secured a strong second-place finish at Suzuka. The Australian led the first 19 laps which demonstrates the pace McLaren have found. Piastri had a difficult start to the season, crashing out before the start at his home Grand Prix in Melbourne and not starting the race in Shanghai due to electrical issues with his Mercedes power unit. Despite this, the 25-year-old has a strong chance of a podium finish due to his car’s improvement and with more improvements set to arrive for this race, along with his previous record around this track.

Tip 3: Pierre Gasly points finish @ 2/5 with bet365

Pierre Gasly has finished in the top 10 in all three races so far this season, and finds himself in a commendable eighth position in the drivers’ standings. Alpine have had a strong start to the season since switching to Mercedes engines and should be able to carry this form into the weekend. The French driver managed to fend off four-time world champion Max Verstappen at Suzuka, which demonstrates how far Gasly’s team have come, even though Red Bull are struggling. Qualifying has proved to be key in Alpine’s resurgence, with consecutive seventh-placed starts giving Gasly another strong opportunity to score points.