New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Match Betting Preview

Gillette Stadium is the stage for one of the biggest intra-divisional clashes the AFC East has seen in years as the 11-2 New England Patriots host the 9-4 Buffalo Bills in a game with major playoff implications. The Patriots return from their bye week riding a 10-game winning streak and with the AFC’s top playoff seeding in their sights. The Bills know they have to win and get help from elsewhere if they are to retain the division title, but a defeat could make their postseason path even harder. New England edged the Bills 23-20 in Week 5, a result that launched rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s MVP campaign, and Foxborough has not been a happy hunting ground for Buffalo since the turn of the century.

Tip 1: New England Patriots (Money Line) @ 27/25 with Betfair

The Pats’ balance on both sides of the ball has been the foundation of their surge. Maye has thrown for over 3,400 yards with 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He has also fumbled six times, but has often been bailed out by New England’s swarming defence that ranks seventh in the NFL with only 28 touchdowns allowed. Buffalo’s defence has been made to look ordinary this year as injuries and veteran players losing a step have exposed vulnerabilities. 

Josh Allen has compensated for some of the team’s frailties by stepping up big time in the last few weeks, but it may be asking too much for him to maintain his current levels of offensive production. With continued solidity from a rested Patriots’ O-line, Maye can orchestrate a victory in a stadium that Buffalo have found wins hard to come by. With home advantage and the chance to clinch the division, backing New England on the money line looks strong value.

Tip 2: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ 10/11 with Sky Bet

Allen remains Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon. He has accounted for 34 total touchdowns this season, including an astonishing 12 scores on the ground. Nine of those rushing scores have come in the seven games since the Bills’ bye week and none have been more spectacular than the 40-yard dash to the end zone he produced against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. New England’s defence has been stout, but their run-stopping unit has faltered since Week 11, allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game in that span. With DT Milton Williams sidelined until Week 17, Allen’s ability to exploit gaps with his legs makes him a prime candidate to score. Backing Allen to find the end zone at any time is a logical play.

Tip 3: James Cook Over 81.5 Rushing Yards @ 10/11 with Bet365

Buffalo RB James Cook is vying for the NFL rushing title this year and trails Indianapolis Colts star Jonathan Taylor by less than 50 yards entering Week 15. The 26-year-old has been on a tear, totaling 340 rushing yards across his last three games and averaging over five yards per carry. Cook struggled in the first meeting with New England, managing just 49 yards on 15 carries, but, with the Pats’ run defence fading, this rematch offers him a golden opportunity. New England did not allow an opposing running back to eclipse the 50-yard mark for the first nine weeks of the season, but they have allowed an additional 1.3 yards per carry in the last few weeks. Expect Cook to clear his rushing line comfortably.