Group G goes down to the wire at BC Place in Vancouver, where a stuttering Belgium side meet a New Zealand team with nothing to lose. The Red Devils, among the pre-tournament dark horses, have drawn both their games and scored just once — an own goal — leaving them third and in real danger of an early exit. New Zealand, the lowest-ranked side at the finals (85th), sit bottom but a win would keep their hopes alive. Both teams need to win to be sure of going through. With kick-off at 4:00am UK time on Saturday 27 June, here are the confirmed details, predicted XIs and our best betting angles.
Match Overview
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | FIFA World Cup 2026 |
| Matchday | Group G, Matchday 3 |
| Date | Friday, 26 June 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 4:00am UK (Saturday 27 June) |
| Venue | BC Place, Vancouver |
| Broadcast | BBC (UK) |
Key Predictions & Confidence Score
Belgium are overwhelming favourites on paper — ranked ninth in the world to New Zealand’s 85th — but their wastefulness in front of goal (just one own goal in two games) has been the story of their group. Against a New Zealand side that has shipped five goals already, Belgium should finally click, though their form points to a controlled rather than free-scoring win. Here are our best bets:
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to Win | 1/7 @ Bet365 (87.5%) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The gulf is enormous: Belgium are ranked ninth in the world with De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku, against the tournament’s lowest-ranked side. The Red Devils have underwhelmed but simply have to win to progress, and against New Zealand’s leaky defence they should have far too much. |
| Both Teams to Score – No | 4/7 @ Sky Bet (63.6%) |
⭐⭐⭐ | Belgium have kept things tight at the back — a clean sheet against Iran and only an own goal conceded all group — while New Zealand have scored just three and lean heavily on Elijah Just. A Belgium win to nil is very much on the cards. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 7/4 @ Paddy Power (36.4%) |
⭐⭐ | The value play. Belgium’s two group games produced just one goal in total, and for all their possession they have been strangely blunt. A controlled 1-0 or 2-0 would land the unders at an appealing price — though New Zealand’s defensive frailty is the obvious risk. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis
1. Value Bet: Both Teams to Score – No
Odds: 4/7 with Sky Bet
Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Analysis: Belgium have conceded just once in the group — and that an own goal — keeping a clean sheet against Iran. New Zealand carry a threat through Elijah Just but have managed only three goals and face by far the toughest defence they have seen. With Belgium likely to control the game and protect their goal, backing them to keep New Zealand out looks the soundest angle.
2. Value Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 7/4 with Paddy Power
Value Rating: ⭐⭐
Analysis: For those wanting a bigger price, Belgium’s wastefulness makes the unders tempting. Their group games have been low-event affairs (1-1, 0-0), and a possession-heavy side chasing a controlled win can take the sting out of a contest. The caveat is New Zealand’s leaky back line, which could turn this into a rout — so treat it as a value punt rather than a banker.
In-Depth Match Analysis
Belgium: Rudi Garcia’s Red Devils arrived as one of the group’s heavyweights but have stumbled, drawing 1-1 with Egypt — their goal an own goal — and 0-0 with Iran. With just a single (own) goal to show for two games, the criticism of their wastefulness has been loud, and they sit third on two points, level with Iran. The equation is simple: win, and they are almost certainly through; anything less and they could be heading home. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and the recalled Jeremy Doku must finally deliver, though they are without the suspended Nathan Ngoy at the back.
New Zealand: The lowest-ranked side at the tournament (85th), Darren Bazeley’s All Whites have been brave but porous, drawing 2-2 with Iran — Elijah Just scoring twice — before a 3-1 defeat to Egypt in which Finn Surman netted. Five goals conceded in two games tells its own story, but with one point and a winnable-looking final game, the Kiwis know victory would give them a real chance of a historic knockout place. Captain Chris Wood leads the line, still chasing his first goal of the finals.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| Iran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium): The captain and creative hub, tasked with finally unlocking a stubborn group.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): Belgium’s main striker, who badly needs a goal to ease the pressure.
- Chris Wood (New Zealand): The captain and talisman, still seeking his first of the tournament.
- Elijah Just (New Zealand): Scored twice against Iran; New Zealand’s brightest attacking spark.
Expected Line Ups for New Zealand vs Belgium
With both teams needing a win, neither manager can afford to hold back, so expect strong sides. New Zealand line up in a 4-2-3-1 under Darren Bazeley, with captain Chris Wood up top and the in-form Elijah Just out wide. Belgium, also in a 4-2-3-1 under Rudi Garcia, recall Jeremy Doku and rely on captain Kevin De Bruyne to supply Romelu Lukaku, with Arthur Theate coming in for the suspended Nathan Ngoy. The XIs below are our best prediction; confirmed teamsheets land about an hour before kick-off.
Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis
New Zealand and Belgium have never met at senior level, so this is a genuine first. With no head-to-head to lean on, the gulf in ranking and the group table frame the contest — and they point overwhelmingly towards Belgium, for all the Red Devils’ struggles:
| Statistic | New Zealand | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Group G Position | 4th | 3rd |
| World Cup Goals Scored | 3 (2 games) | 1 (2 games) |
| World Cup Goals Conceded | 5 | 1 |
| FIFA World Ranking | 85th | 9th |
| Points (into Matchday 3) | 1 | 2 |
Player Spotlight: Elijah Just
Elijah Just has been New Zealand’s breakout star at the finals, scoring both goals in the 2-2 draw with Iran to announce himself on the biggest stage. Quick and direct from the left, he has been the All Whites’ chief source of attacking inspiration as they look to spring the tournament’s biggest upset. Against a Belgium defence that has barely been breached, Just’s pace in transition is New Zealand’s most likely route to a goal — and with captain Chris Wood occupying the centre-backs, the winger will fancy his chances of finding space. If the lowest-ranked side at the World Cup are to stun the Red Devils, Just is the man most likely to make it happen.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is the favourite to win New Zealand vs Belgium?
A: Belgium are heavy favourites. Ranked ninth in the world to New Zealand’s 85th — the lowest-ranked side at the tournament — they are strongly fancied despite a disappointing group campaign. Both teams need a win to be sure of progressing.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: Our featured prices include Belgium to win at 1/7, Both Teams to Score – No at 4/7 and the value play of Under 2.5 Goals at 7/4. Prices move closer to kick-off, so compare the latest across the leading World Cup betting sites.
Q: Where can I watch New Zealand vs Belgium in the UK?
A: The match is scheduled for UK broadcast on the BBC, kicking off at 4:00am on Saturday 27 June.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
This is a must-win for both, but the gap in quality is stark: Belgium have stuttered yet remain ranked ninth in the world, while New Zealand are the tournament’s lowest-ranked side. We expect the Red Devils to finally find their feet, so Belgium to Win is the banker, with Both Teams to Score – No a sensible support play and Under 2.5 Goals the bigger-priced value angle given Belgium’s wastefulness. As ever, confirm the teamsheets before betting. For more World Cup tips and the latest prices, compare the leading World Cup winner odds.
Disclaimer & Responsible Gambling
All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. For more information and support, visit BeGambleAware.org. You must be 18 or over to gamble.
