All odds accurate at the time of publishing on 17th November 2020.
Wales or Draw @ 2/9
Whilst the Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria will scrap it out for survival in their match, Wales and Finland are playing for top spot in this game, with the visitors currently just a point behind their hosts in the table. And both sides come into the game in excellent form, with Wales having only lost 1 of their last 13 matches and are unbeaten in their last 9 home games. Finland, meanwhile, have only lost 1 of their last 6 games, a 5-1 defeat to Poland and triumphed over world champions France in midweek. This is going to be a really tight game, but the home advantage and that lengthy unbeaten home run should just about give Wales the edge in this one and we’re backing them in the double chance market at 2/9.
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6 of Wales’ last 7 matches have produced a single goal or less, with their 3-0 defeat to England at Wembley the only exception. There have also only been 2 goals in total in their last 4 matches, with those goals coming in 1-0 wins over Bulgaria and the Republic of Ireland. And Wales’ run of low-scoring games stretches even further back than that, as 11 of their last 12 matches have seen under 2.5 goals scored and there have only been 13 goals in their last 10 games in total. Finland’s games have produced slightly more goals than Wales’, with 25 scored in their last 10 matches, but the Fins themselves haven’t scored more than twice in any of their last 7 games. This is likely to be another low-scoring affair so we’re opting for under 2.5 goals at 10/21 with 10Bet.
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Pukki scored in the 7th minute of Finland’s 2-1 away win over Bulgaria at the weekend and that was his 11th in his last 14 games for his country. He scored 11 times for Norwich last season as the league’s lowest scorers finished bottom and were relegated back to the Championship, but Pukki has continued to find the back of the net and has 4 league goals so far this term. The former Celtic man is now only 6 goals short of Jari Litmanen’s all time scoring record for the Finnish national side of 32 goals, with 26 strikes in his 86 caps. The bookies see Pukki as an outsider to score anytime at 13/5 but given his habit of popping up in the right place at the right time there could well be some value here.