2023 MLB Betting: Favorites and Longshots To Finish as the MLB Home Run Leader

The Major League Baseball rules have been changed to spark a generational shift in how the bases are run, not how the ball is hit. So the really challenging task this season will be to pick the big league stolen base leader.

But there are variables that also make it difficult to narrow down the field of potential home run champions. We won’t know how lively baseballs are until they start (or don’t start) flying out of the yard.

While Aaron Judge made season-long headlines last season by hitting an American League-record 62 homers, he was one of just four players to exceed 40 homers. Nine players have hit 40 or more homers the last two seasons, one fewer than reached the milestone in 2019 alone.

Aaron Judge's 62 home runs in 2022 were 16 more than anyone else in MLB. It's the largest margin in the last 90 years! 😮 pic.twitter.com/c01ghTaQY7

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) December 31, 2022

In addition, previous success isn’t usually a predictor of future achievement, at least at the level of leading the majors in homers. Only seven players have led or shared the big league lead in homers in at least two consecutive seasons during the expansion era (1961-present). It’s happened just twice this century, when Alex Rodriguez led the bigs in homers in 2002 and tied Jim Thome for the lead in 2003 and Jose Bautista was the back-to-back home run champ in 2010-11.

From 2010 — when Bautista hit 54 homers, a whopping 43 more than the previous season — through 2018, the big league leader in homers hit an average of 18.7 more homers than he did the season before. Judge hit 23 more homers last season than he did in 2021.

So while there are plenty of big names on the board at DraftKings, it’s possible the champion will be a relative unknown who comes from back in the pack. Here’s a look at some of the leading and darkhorse candidates, along with our pick to lead the way in 2023. All odds from DraftKings as of March 22.

Aaron Judge (+550)

There are certainly worse picks than the defending home run champion who’s never hit fewer than 27 homers in a full season. But banking on a repeat performance, at least atop the leaderboard, means investing in the belief Judge, who turns 31 on Apr. 26, has shed the nagging injuries that cost him 142 games from 2018 through 2020. It’s likely he’ll hit homers at a slower rate and miss a little more time this season.

Mike Trout (+850)

There’s never any shortage of laugh-out-loud facts to underline just how great Trout is, so here’s another one: Trout has 182 homers since 2017, the fifth-most in the game — and only six behind second-place Nolan Arenado — despite playing just 596 games, the second-fewest total of anyone in the top 25. And Alonso (25th with 146 homers) has a good excuse for only playing 530 games, since he was a minor leaguer in 2017 and 2018. At 31 and with back woes, it’s hard to envision Trout exceeding 140 games for the first time since 2017. But he might not have to in order to lead the bigs in homers.

Pete Alonso (+900)

The combination of health, improved plate patience and general affinity for the long ball might make Alonso the safest pick on the board. Alonso has missed just 16 games in his first four seasons while averaging a homer every 15.4 plate appearances and cutting his strikeout rate and watching the lineup around him receive vast upgrades. He whiffed 128 times last year, down from 183 strikeouts as a rookie, and was intentionally walked just 16 times in 2022 despite hitting 40 homers.

Yordan Alvarez  (+1000)

Durability is a concern for Alvarez, who missed all but two games in 2020 due to a right knee injury and has yet to debut this spring because of a left hand injury. But there are few power hitters more prolific than Alvarez, who is averaging a homer every 15.7 plate appearances since reaching the majors in 2019.

Kyle Schwarber (+1100)

The runaway non-Judge home run leader last season, Schwarber already has four 30-homer seasons despite just turning 30 this month. He’ll also be batting at or near the top of an order that’s going to score a ton of runs while playing its home games in a bandbox.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1200)

Guerrero found out how hard it is to repeat as the home run king last season, when he hit a mere 32 homers, 16 fewer than he hit while sharing the big league lead with Salvador Perez in 2021. But Guerrero is just 24, so a bounce-back season is quite possible, if not likely.

Austin Riley (+1300)

The arrow might still be pointing up for Riley even after he hit 26 homers over 131 games in 2019-20 combined followed by 33 homers in 2021 and 38 round-trippers last year.

Shohei Ohtani (+1500)

The unicorn “slumped” at the plate last season, when he hit 34 homers, 12 fewer than in 2021. Maybe he was just bored and wanted to let the rest of the universe feel as if it was gaining on him.

Giancarlo Stanton (+2500)

Now here’s an interesting long shot. Nobody — not even Judge — has the raw power of Stanton, who led the majors in homers with 59 in his final season with the Miami Marlins in 2017 and has homered once every 15.9 plate appearances as a big leaguer. But health is always a concern for Stanton, who has missed 256 games over the past four seasons. If he can stay off the IL, he’s as viable a threat as anyone in the second tier and beyond to win the home run crown.

The Longshots

Using the average before-and-after season for those who led the bigs in homers from 2010 through 2018, most of these players would be in the 45-homer range if they hit 19 more homers than a year ago:

JUAN SOTO (+3000) is still just 24 years old and should get more pitches to hit during a full season in a stacked Padres lineup…Budding superstar JULIO RODRIGUEZ (+3000) was limited to just 41 games after the All-Star Break last season due to back and finger injuries but averaged a homer every 15 plate appearances, a vast improvement on his first half average of a homer every 23.8 plate appearances…BYRON BUXTON (+3500) has the worst injury luck, but he opened last season by hitting 11 homers in his first 23 games (a span in which he missed 12 games) and hit a career-high 28 homers in just 92 games. He’s an even more intriguing lottery ticket than Stanton but also a longer shot to play 140 games…ONEIL CRUZ (+8000) might be the new poster boy for three true outcomes after he hit 17 homers, drew 28 walks and struck out 126 times in 361 plate appearances last season. If the selectivity increases and he puts more balls in play, they’ll go over the fence….C.J. CRON (+9000) plays his home games in Coors Field, which is reason enough to consider a token wager. Of course, of his 29 homers last season, 22 were at home. 

The Pick: We’ll go with Pete Alonso at +900, who is younger than most of his peers at the top of the board and has been the most durable over the last four seasons. And don’t be surprised if his competition for the big league homer lead comes from across town — but in the form of Stanton instead of Judge.