2023 Super Bowl LVII Gambling: Prop Bets for Quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes

It won’t come as much of a surprise that 31 of the 57 men named Super Bowl MVP — here’s to you, co-Super Bowl XII MVPs Harvey Martin and Randy White — have been quarterbacks. But the Super Bowl was a quarterback-dominated event long before the NFL became a pass-first league. 

There were just 11 touchdowns thrown in the first six Super Bowls, yet five of the first six MVPs were signal-callers. Back-to-back winner Bart Starr threw a total of three touchdown passes for the Green Bay Packers, who opened the Super Bowl era with consecutive victories over the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders. 

Len Dawson tossed a touchdown pass in the Chiefs’ 23-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV and Roger Staubach threw two touchdowns to lead the Dallas Cowboys to a 24-3 win over the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl VI.

The man who was really ahead of his time, though, was Joe Namath, who was 17-of-28 for 206 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions yet won the MVP when the AFL’s New York Jets posted perhaps the biggest win in football history by upsetting the NFL’s Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III. 

Namath winning the award over running back Matt Snell (30 carries for 121 yards and the Jets’ lone touchdown), defensive back Randy Beverly (two interceptions) or even kicker Jim Turner (three field goals) was likely an acknowledgment of Namath’s off-field celebrity and his ability to back up his pregame guarantee of a Jets win — delivered poolside to reporters, imagine THAT today.

Happy Birthday, Joe Namath:

Super Bowl III MVP
5X Pro Bowl
3X Passing Yards Leader
2X AP AFL Player of the year
1X AP 1st Team All-Pro
27,663 Passing Yards
173 Passing TDs
Inducted into HOF in 1985 pic.twitter.com/GDaj2gqK5j

— Jim Miloch (@podoffame) May 31, 2022

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts might exceed all of Namath’s counting totals from Super Bowl III by halftime Sunday, when they’ll be the center of attention at Super Bowl 57 as well as the overwhelming favorites to win MVP honors in Super Bowl betting.

Mahomes (+120) and Hurts (+125) are the only players with odds shorter than +1000. 

Both short- and long-term history are on the side of Mahomes or Hurts. While Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp earned the honors last season, a non-quarterback hasn’t won the MVP in consecutive Super Bowls since wide receivers Deion Branch and Hines Ward did so for the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowls 39 and 40.

Who's your pick to be the next Super Bowl MVP? 🤔#NFLonDAZN | #SBLVII pic.twitter.com/6Nt9Vbgziy

— DAZN Canada (@DAZN_CA) February 9, 2023

Here’s a look at four prop bets that could factor into the outcome of Sunday’s game as well as help determine who receives the Pete Rozelle Trophy as the MVP.

Combined Rushing + Passing Yards

• Patrick Mahomes 318.5 combined yards (over -115, under -115)
• Jalen Hurts 295.5 combined yards (over -115, under -115)

These are interesting numbers beyond the exact same odds for each potential outcome. While these yardage figures are certainly achievable by the star quarterbacks, neither one is a sure thing. Mahomes exceeded 318.5 combined yards in 12 of 19 starts this season while Hurts accounted for more than 295.5 yards of offense eight times in his 17 starts. 

Both players performed closer to their floors than their ceilings while playing through nagging injuries in the playoffs. Mahomes, who missed most of the second quarter of the divisional round against the Jacksonville Jaguars after suffering a high ankle sprain, accounted for 537 yards and threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals. Hurts, who missed weeks 16 and 17 with a right shoulder injury, generated just 348 yards and four total touchdowns while playing in lopsided wins over the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.

During Thursday's #Chiefs practice — the team's hardest practice leading up to #SBLVII — QB Patrick Mahomes (high-ankle sprain) is expected to take every 1st-team rep, per @JamesPalmerTV.#ChiefsKingdom

— Devon Clements (@DevclemNFL) February 9, 2023

In addition, Super Bowl quarterbacks have been a bit quiet in the last 10 years. A signal-caller has exceeded 300 yards in total offense eight times since Super Bowl 47. Six of those efforts have been overseen by quarterbacks trying to mount comebacks from double-digit deficits — Mahomes in Super Bowls 54 and 55, Tom Brady in Super Bowls 49, 51 and 52, Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50 and Colin Kaepernick in Super Bowl 47.

But the bye week provided some much-needed rest and rehab for Mahomes and Hurts. That time off, coupled with the nearly pick-em nature of Super Bowl 57 — the Eagles are a 1 1/2-point favorite — and an over/under of 51 suggests there’s a pretty good chance of a close, high-scoring affair in which Mahomes and Hurts march up and down the field trading symbolic haymakers.

Prediction: Mahomes over 318.5 combined yards, Hurts over 295.5 combined yards.

Total Touchdowns

• Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdowns (+170), under 2.5 touchdowns (-210)
• Jalen Hurts over 1.5 touchdowns (-110), under 1.5 touchdowns (-120)

Here’s another set of lines where the under has a surprisingly strong case. A quarterback has accounted for three or more touchdowns seven times in the last 10 Super Bowls, a stretch that includes two games in which the quarterbacks didn’t generate a touchdown. Sony Michel rushed for the only touchdown when the New England Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in the dreadfully boring Super Bowl 53 while the Denver Broncos beat the Carolina Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50, when three touchdowns — two rushing and one defensive — were scored. 

As for this year’s quarterbacks, Mahomes was his usual All-World self and led the NFL with 41 regular season touchdown passes, but he had more than three total touchdowns just eight times in the regular season before finishing with two touchdowns apiece in the Chiefs’ playoff games. Kansas City’s non-Mahomes players accounted for 14 rushing touchdowns in the regular season while the defense scored twice.

Hurts has turned the quarterback sneak into an art form, but he exceeded two touchdowns eight times in 15 regular season starts and once in the Eagles’ first two playoff games. Counting the playoffs, non-Hurts players collected 22 rushing touchdowns — somehow, only three were by Boston Scott against the Giants — for the ground-and-pound Eagles, while the Philadelphia defense also scored twice.

All that being said…again, this feels like a high-scoring affair in which the Chiefs and Eagles are going to put the ball in the hands of their superstar quarterbacks. Mahomes, in particular, should be doubly energized after he followed up his three-touchdown, MVP-winning performance in Super Bowl 54 by accounting for no touchdowns in a Super Bowl 55 loss to Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Prediction: Mahomes over 2.5 touchdowns, Hurts over 1.5 touchdowns (-110)

Anytime/First Touchdown Scorer

• Patrick Mahomes anytime TD scorer +380; first TD scorer +2500
• Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer -115; first TD scorer +650

Quarterbacks have accounted for 16 non-passing touchdowns in Super Bowl history — 15 rushing scores and maybe the coolest touchdown of all, Nick Foles’ one-yard touchdown catch on the “Philly Special” in Super Bowl 52. 

While it’s unlikely Hurts will catch a touchdown, it’s hard to imagine he won’t find the end zone on the ground. Even though he missed two games, Hurts rushed for 13 touchdowns in the regular season, the second-most all-time behind Newton (14 for the Panthers in 2011). He also had 10 rushing touchdowns in 2021, making him the first quarterback to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. The Eagles’ ground game is so versatile that Wilbert Montgomery might get some red zone carries, but still, smash that anytime TD scorer for Hurts, who has three rushing touchdowns of 22 yards or longer and could end up running for the longest touchdown by a quarterback in a Super Bowl. Kaepernick’s 15-yard score in Super Bowl 47 is the only rushing score of longer than six yards by a signal-caller.

The Mahomes odds are enticing, but given his semi-gimpy nature — and the fact he missed two games after suffering a dislocated kneecap on a quarterback sneak in 2019 — it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs drawing up a running play for him near the end zone.

If you’re feeling really frisky, a wager on Hurts or Mahomes scoring the first touchdown could make the entire evening profitable. A quarterback has rushed for the game’s first touchdown three times — Joe Montana for the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XVI, Ben Roethlisberger for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl 40 and Mahomes in Super Bowl 54. But we’ll lean on the side of the field here.

Prediction: Hurts anytime TD scorer -115