The Week 3 slate is coming to a close, with the surprising New York Giants attempting to remain undefeated by knocking off the Dak Prescott-less Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
The Giants are slight favorites, although the oddsmakers see this contest as a relative toss-up, as Dallas is the more talented team despite using a backup quarterback.
Here are my three favorite prop bets for the matchup:
Tony Pollard under 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Pollard had a big game last week against the Bengals, rushing for 45 yards while catching four passes for 55 yards on seven targets. That was his first full game with Cooper Rush, so maybe there is some synergy there, but I still feel like this receiving yardage total is high.
Pollard only played 24 snaps and either ran the ball or was targeted on 16 of them, which is completely unsustainable. I think his usage percentage goes down, and it’s going to be hard to duplicate this season’s 7.7 yards per target average as well.
Pollard is a talented player and it would only take a couple nice gains to push this one across, but I don’t think he will have a huge game through the air. Much of it could come down to which team is ahead at the end of the game, and I think it will be Dallas salting the game away with rushing attempts instead of needing to rally through the air.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 receptions (+102)
Ah, the age-old question: When an offense only has one above average wide receiver, will he get a bunch of catches because the quarterback will force-feed it, or only a few because the defense will bracket him?
Lamb fits the bill for the Cowboys at this stage, and it will be interesting to see how the contest plays out. But this much I know: Lamb had 11 targets in each of the first two games, and while that has only resulted in nine catches for 104 yards, Dallas is trying to get him the ball.
The under is the favorite on this play and at these odds I like the over. Cooper Rush should throw him a couple cheapies on bubble screens, slants or the like, and Lamb’s hands are good enough to add a few higher-degree-of-difficulty grabs and reach six catches.
Giants QB Daniel Jones under 232.5 pass and rush yards (-115)
The Giants have found success playing conservatively in the first couple games, relying on Saquon Barkley and the running game offensively. If Prescott was healthy, the Giants would be the underdog and Jones would be forced to throw late, but all signs point to a close, low-scoring game in this matchup.
Jones has run the ball a lot in the first two weeks, but Dallas’ defense has a lot of team speed and I don’t think it will get burned by the quarterback on the ground. I also don’t foresee Jones throwing a ton in this one.
The Cowboys have been very good against the pass dating back to last season, and I think that will continue. The under is the sensible play as this could be a grind-it-out type of game on both sides.
This week’s record: 5-4
Overall: 14-11
