2023 MLB Betting: After New Pickoff Rules, Braves Outfielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. Favored to Win Stolen Base Crown

If there is a modern day Maury Wills in Major League Baseball, he won’t need to dive back into first base nearly as much this year as Wills did while sparking the sport’s first stolen base revolution.

According to a Sports Illustrated story from June 1966, the San Francisco Giants were so obsessed with neutralizing Wills — who stole 376 bases for the Los Angeles Dodgers from 1960 through 1965, including 104 in 1962, when he was became the first player in the modern era to reach the century mark in a single season — that pitcher Ray Sadecki made 19 throws to first base the two times Wills reached against him on June 18, 1966.

This year, such a philosophy would earn the runner on first base a quick and easy trip to second base.

Baseball’s most fascinating experiment in generations officially begins with Opening Day next Thursday. In an attempt to speed the game along and add some action to what has become an all-or-nothing endeavor, Major League Baseball has limited pitchers to two “disengagements” — i.e. pickoff throws or calls for a  timeout — per plate appearance.

Any additional disengagements during the plate appearance will result in a balk being called and the baserunners advancing 90 feet.

Zack Greinke must be working on pick offs because he's made several today. One was an errant throw that put Ketel Marte on second. Then Greinke made two attempts and didn't get an out on the third, so Marte advanced on a forced balk.

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) March 19, 2023

The bases have also been increased from 15 square inches to 18 square inches in hopes a shorter distance and a safer destination will nudge player to attempt more stolen bases.

There is little doubt baseball could use the jolt of excitement the stolen base can provide — one rarely seen or experienced by an entire generation of fans.

The big league leader in stolen bases has finished with fewer than 50 thefts each of the last five seasons after doing so just five times in the 61 seasons from 1957 through 2017. Dee Strange-Gordon, Elvis Andrus, Billy Hamilton and Starling Marte, the only four active players to collect 300 stolen bases, have combined for 1,309 thefts, or 97 fewer than Rickey Henderson had all by himself in his Hall of Fame career.

Just three players have swiped 70 bases in a season this century, a feat reached most recently by Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009. A player recorded at least 70 stolen bases 47 times from 1962 — when Wills became the first player since Ty Cobb in 1915 to steal at least 70 bases — through 1999. A player stole at least 80 bases 14 times in the 1980s, when Henderson and Vince Coleman each had three 100-steal seasons.

Astros catcher Yainer Diaz just showed off his arm by throwing out Marlins leadoff hitter Jon Berti trying to steal second. Berti led the majors with 41 stolen bases last season.

— Matt Young (@Chron_MattYoung) March 14, 2023

Of course, reviving the stolen base may be easier said than done. Stolen bases have been down this century because they are considered a risk not worth taking by analytics-minded front offices filled with disciples of Theo Epstein, the analytically savvy Hall of Fame-bound former general manager who helped design the new rules.

Will these changes and the new limits on the infield shifts likely resulting in more singles generate enough traffic at first base to make the stolen base more enticing? Or will an entire generation of executives and hitters trained in launch angle and Three True Outcomes continue to ignore small ball?

We’ll find out beginning next Thursday. Here’s a look at 10 candidates to lead the majors and our pick to win the big league stolen bases crown. All odds from DraftKings as of March 24:

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+600)

Acuna is a former National League stolen base champion who was on pace to flirt with a 40/40 season in 2021 before he suffered a torn right ACL. The prospect of a full season and looser stolen base rules have enticed bettors, who have vaulted Acuna past Adalberto Mondesi over the last few days.

Adalberto Mondesi (+700)

The range of outcomes is Grand Canyon-esque for Mondesi, who averages a stolen base every 2.7 games, which works out to a 60-steal pace over 162 games under the old rules. But the injury-wracked Mondesi has never played more than 102 games in a season and will open the season on the IL recovering from a torn ACL in his left knee. Mondesi could lead the world in steals, or he might steal as many bases as those of us reading this article.

Esteury Ruiz (+700)

The Henderson comps are impossible to ignore with Ruiz, who stole 86 bases between the majors and minors in 2022 and will get an opportunity to run away with the centerfield job for an Oakland Athletics squad coming off the franchise’s first 100-loss season since Henderson’s rookie year in 1979. Henderson stole 100 bags the next year. But while Henderson was already supernaturally polished — he recorded 249 steals and had a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 271/207 prior reaching the majors at age 20  — Ruiz enters his age-24 season with 243 minor league steals and a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 190/498. A run at 80 steals feels just as likely as a May demotion.

Cedric Mullins (+1000)

Like all humans not named Aaron Judge, Mullins hit for less power last season, when he delivered 16 homers one season after joining the 30/30 club. But he finished with 34 steals and finished just one shy of teammate Jorge Mateo for the American League lead. Mullins’ history of durability— he’s missed just 19 games the last three seasons — and his no-doubt standing as the Baltimore Orioles’ leadoff hitter make him one of the safer bets on the board.

Jon Berti (+1100)

Berti played in just 102 games last season due to hip and groin injuries yet still easily led the majors with 41 steals, six more than Mateo. But a repeat will be difficult for the 33-year-old Berti, who set a career-high in games played in 2022 but lost his everyday job with the Miami Marlins following the acquisition of reigning AL bating champ Luis Arraez.

Trea Turner (+1100)

After the World Baseball Classic, maybe we should be wondering if Turner can lead the world in homers instead. Turner is priced a little low for a two-time NL stolen base champ who has the second-most hits since 2018 and thus should benefit from the likely increase in singles. But the power-fueled Philadelphia Phillies aren’t likely to be as reliant on small ball, though Turner might get the chance to run more with Rhys Hoskins out for the year after tearing his left ACL on Thursday.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+1300)

Witt swiped 30 bases as a rookie despite drawing just 30 walks and posting an on-base percentage of .294. He’s likely to improve on that figure — the 22-year-old posted a .350 on-base percentage as a minor leaguer — and the Kansas City Royals, who hit the fifth-fewest homers in the majors last season, will probably need to build runs on the base paths. 

Julio Rodriguez (+1400)

Along with Acuna Jr., Rodriguez is the likeliest candidate to make a run at joining Barry Bonds and Eric Davis as the only players to hit 30 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. Rodriguez went 20/20 as a 21-year-old rookie and looked like he was just getting warmed up.

Jorge Mateo (+2000)

The reigning AL stolen base champ needs to be listed here, even if a repeat performance is going to be difficult for Mateo, who posted a .267 on-base percentage last season and could lose his everyday job with potential Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson and 20-somethings Ramon Urias and Terrin Vavra all pushing for time at shortstop. 

Jose Siri (+4500)

Randy Arozarena (+1800) has much shorter odds and swiped 32 bases last season, when he became only the fifth Tampa Bay Rays player not named Carl Crawford or B.J. Upton to record a 30-steal campaign. But it’d be a very Rays thing to zig when everyone expected them to zag and for Siri — who has six steals this spring — to contend for the league lead in thefts while batting near the bottom of the lineup.

The Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Don’t overthink it. While Esteury Ruiz has the most stolen base upside, Acuna ran a lot in the old days and he should be back to 100 percent this year. And perhaps this is the result of a childhood spent reading from afar about Eric Davis’ exploits, but the closest competition for Acuna feels like Julio Rodriguez.