Super Bowl Winner, MVP, Octopus, Scorigami and A Slew of Other Bets for Eagles-Chiefs

The adulthood version of the last day before Christmas vacation is here. With Super Bowl 57 finally on the horizon, no one’s getting any work done today. 

But instead of watching a movie in class or having a party, we’ll sit around our desks — virtual and otherwise — while pondering whether the Kansas City Chiefs of Philadelphia Eagles will raise the Lombardi Trophy and which prop bets to focus on.

After a week of crunching the numbers, here’s our final predictions for betting on the Super Bowl, with a mixture of meat and potatoes and some fun long shot prop bets on the side. 

All odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 10. Enjoy the game!

• MONEYLINE: Eagles -125
• SPREAD: Eagles -1 1/2
• OVER/UNDER: Over 51
• SUPER BOWL MVP: Jalen Hurts +125
• ANY TEAM TO SCORE 30+ PTS: Yes -140
• EAGLES TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 20+ PTS: Yes +230

First, a regular get-off-my-lawn reminder about how good younger fans have it these days: Fourteen of the last 26 Super Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less while six others were one-score games in the fourth quarter before the winning team pulled away. Just seven of the first 30 Super Bowls were decided by seven points or fewer, with five others being a one-score affair in the fourth.

Do you know how much we cherished the Giants edging the Bills 20-19 when Scott Norwood’s field goal sailed wide right on the penultimate play of Super Bowl XXV? The next day, we had to walk uphill in the snow to school! Both ways!

One of my first and most vivid memories from early childhood (6.5 years old) was Scott Norwood, and I was dead convinced he made it and the official screwed him.

Somehow feels fitting. https://t.co/wL5wpqJhwQ

— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) February 7, 2023

Anyway, this game feels like it’ll maintain the recent tradition of close games and give us the highest-scoring Super Bowl since the Eagles outlasted the New England Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52. The Chiefs (496 points) and Eagles (477 points) were the two highest-scoring teams in the NFL during the regular season, when they shared the best record at 14-3. Counting their playoff games, they’ve both scored exactly 546 points. They have transcendent quarterbacks in the prime of their careers surrounded by outstanding skill position players. 

The Eagles have received some criticism for an apparently easy schedule (tied for the third-easiest, per Pro Football Reference) and riding a clear path to the Super Bowl by beating the overachieving New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers, who were so riddled by injuries at quarterback they may or may not have asked Steve Bono to take snaps in the second half. But the Chiefs had the fifth-easiest schedule, per Pro Football Reference, and that vaunted AFC West turned out to be anything but while the NFC East nearly sent four teams to the playoffs.

So grease those poles in Philadelphia, and if Rob McElhenney is reading this (hi Rob!), get ready to write “The Gang Wins the Big One 2: Electric Boogaloo.” While this will be a close game the entire way, the Eagles will maintain their lead throughout the second half and Jalen Hurts will account for four touchdowns to win Super Bowl MVP honors.

Now for some other possible prop bets…

• TRAVIS KELCE TO SCORE TWO-PLUS TDS: +500
• ANY OFFENSIVE LINEMAN TO SCORE A RECEIVING TD: +3500

The Kelce family is America’s family this week, with Jason (Eagles) and Travis (Chiefs) becoming the first set of brothers to oppose each other in the Super Bowl. If only they were coached by the Harbaughs!

Travis Kelce thrives in the spotlight, with two touchdowns in three previous playoff games and five of his last six multi-touchdown regular season outings coming in prime time or within a window in which the Chiefs were participating in the only game. (He had two touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills on Monday, Oct. 19, 2020, a game that started at 5 PM EST after being postponed twice due to COVID-19 issues) In a high-scoring affair, it’s easy to forecast a couple touchdowns for Travis Kelce.

Most bet props Chiefs-Eagles at @BetMGM

Travis Kelce to score 1st TD (+650)

Travis Kelce to score anytime TD (-125)

Result of coin toss: Heads (-105)

Eagles 37-34 Chiefs correct score (+8000)

Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interception (-110)

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) February 10, 2023

It’s a whole lot less likely his brother joins him in the end zone, since he’s the Eagles’ center and all that. Jason Kelce’s touchdown would almost certainly require a fire drill-esque type of play where he pounced on a fumble in the end zone.

But with two high-powered offenses run by creative head coaches, it’s possible one of the few scoring-related Super Bowl droughts — an offensive lineman catching a touchdown — finally ends. Tampa Bay Buccaneers lineman Joe Haeg was targeted by Tom Brady in Super Bowl 55, but the pass was broken up by Chiefs linebacker Anthony Hitchens. 

The only lineman to score in Super Bowl history is William “The Refrigerator” Perry, the 335-pound Chicago Bears defensive lineman who plunged into the Super Bowl during the Bears’ 46-10 rout of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX. We mention this just to note, once again, it was unforgivable of Mike Ditka to get Perry a touchdown in a Super Bowl laugher at the expense of Walter Payton, the greatest Bears player ever. 

• ANY PLAYER TO RETURN A PUNT OR KICKOFF FOR A TD: +1400

This is unlikely, but it’s worth a small wager just in case another Super Bowl drought ends and someone returns a punt for a touchdown. While it’s initially hard to believe a punt return touchdown has never happened, the event is pretty rare during the regular season too.

Even with the rewriting of kickoff rules in 2018 discouraging returns, there have been 34 kickoff returns for touchdowns over the last five years and just 27 punt returns for touchdowns, including three this season.

There have been 10 kickoff return touchdowns in Super Bowl history, though none since Percy Harvin removed any doubt about the outcome of Super Bowl 48 by scoring on the opening kickoff of the second half for the Seattle Seahawks in their 43-8 win over the Denver Broncos. That’s the longest span without a kickoff return touchdown in the Super Bowl since the first 16 Super Bowls came and went without a kickoff return touchdown until Fulton Walker’s 98-yard return for the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XVII.

• WILL THERE BE A 2-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT? Yes +120
• WILL THERE BE AN OCTOPUS? Yes +1400

Somewhat surprisingly, there have been just 27 two-point conversion attempts since Super Bowl XXIX, the first Super Bowl following the addition of the two-point conversion in 1994. The San Diego Chargers went 2-for-2 during their 49-26 loss to the 49ers, but teams have converted only seven two-point conversions since and none since the New England Patriots went 2-for-2 while scoring the final 31 points of their 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51. The Eagles were 0-for-2 the following year while the Los Angeles Rams misfired on their lone attempt last February.

Jalen Hurts OCTOPUS 🐙

Eagles 25 – Bears 13

Q4 4:20

Jalen Hurts rushed up the middle for 1 yard touchdown (2pt attempt converted, Jalen Hurts run)

🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙

— NFL Octopus Tracker 🐙🤖 (@NFL_Octopus) December 18, 2022

An Octopus — the same player recording a touchdown and the subsequent two-point conversion — has never happened in a Super Bowl. This isn’t as historic a drought as nobody returning a punt for a touchdown, but it’s still pretty notable. Especially since the last two of the six octopuses during the 2022 regular season were recorded by…Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts!

Patrick Mahomes OCTOPUS 🐙

Titans 17 – Chiefs 17

Q4 2:56

Patrick Mahomes rushed to the right for 14 yard touchdown (2pt attempt converted, Patrick Mahomes run)

🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙🐙

— NFL Octopus Tracker 🐙🤖 (@NFL_Octopus) November 7, 2022

• WILL THERE BE A SCORIGAMI? Yes +2000

A scorigami is a final score that’s never happened before. Three Super Bowls have ended with a scorigami, all at the expense of the (Homer Simpson voice) DENVER BRONCOS?

• Super Bowl XXI: New York Giants 39, Broncos 20
• Super Bowl XXIV: San Francisco 49ers 55, Broncos 10
• Super Bowl 48: Seattle Seahawks 43, Broncos 8

Poor Broncos, but since they’re not here this year, a Scorigami probably won’t happen. That said, some of the potential Scorigamis if the over hits include 32-22, 32-26, 36-23, 36-29 and at least four final scores that offer the possibility of a two-point conversion for all the marbles: 32-31, 36-35, 39-37 and 39-38. If that’s how the Super Bowl ends, we’ll be talking about it forever. Unlike all the Super Bowls of my misspent youth.