Champions League Draw: Latest Odds & How Bookies Reacted

The Champions League quarter-finals draw took place today in anticipation for the return of the new tournament format.

The second legs of four Round of 16 ties are set to be completed between 7th and 8th of August, with fixtures taking place in the home team’s stadium.  Following the culmination of those games, the competition will conclude in an eight-team tournament held in Lisbon from 12th to the 23rd August. 

The quarter-finals draw is as follows:

  • Quarter-final 1: Manchester City or Real Madrid v Juventus or Lyon 
  • Quarter-final 2: RB Leipzig v Atlético Madrid 
  • Quarter-final 3: Barcelona or Napoli v Bayern Munich or Chelsea 
  • Quarter-final 4: Atalanta v PSG 

Aggregate scores of the remaining Round of 16 fixtures: 

  • Bayern Munich v Chelsea (3-0)
  • Barcelona v Napoli (1-1) 
  • Manchester City v Real Madrid (2-1)
  • Juventus v Lyon (0-1)

The semi-finals are due to take place on 18th to 19th August with the winner of Quarter Final 1 playing the winner of Quarter Final 3, and the winner of Quarter Final 2 playing the winner of Quarter FInal 4. 

How the bookies responded

Odds lengthen on favourites Bayern

The newly crowned German champions, Bayern Munich, were the odds on favourites to win the competition outright, but the results of the draw have complicated things somewhat. While they go into their second leg Round of 16 game against Chelsea defending a 3-0 away lead, the Bavarian side will have to face either Napoli or Barcelona if they progress. As such, their odds lengthened by 18% from 7/4 to 9/4, with the greatest increase coming from 888 whose odds on Bayern moved from 11/4 to 15/4 – an increase of 36%. Chelsea’s odds, on the other hand, remain incredibly long, sitting around the 300/1 mark of winning outright. 

Barcelona fall out of top three 

The winner of the Bayern and Chelsea showdown will face off against either Barcelona or Napoli. Barca have suffered a stuttering season by their standards, with an injury crisis up front before lockdown and a poor showing in the league following it. Their odds of winning the Champions League outright, therefore, suffered a huge blow following the announcement of the draw. Their collective odds rocketed by over 26% with 888 seeing them move from 13/2 to 9/1. Their first leg 1-1 draw against Napoli should be navigated, but a potential quarter-final against Bayern Munich and then a semi-final against either Manchester City, Real Madrid, Juventus and potentially Lyon has seen the Blaugrana fall away as a serious contender. 

Man City joint-favourites after draw

Manchester City were just behind Munich as outright winners before the draw, but they have since moved up to joint first with the Bavarian side. They go into their second leg Round of 16 game against Real Madrid defending a crucial 2-1 away win in the first leg, and would face either Juventus or Lyon in their quarter-final should they win. As such, their odds increased fractionally by 8% from 49/25 to 9/4. Real Madrid’s odds were already pretty long before the draw and the results provided very little change with both Paddy Power’s 25/1 and Sky Bet’s 28/1 odds of a prospective Madrid win staying the same after the draw was made. 

Lyon’s nightmare route to final sees odds skyrocket 

Chances are that, should City make it past Madrid, they will face Juventus in the quarter-finals. Lyon did record an impressive 1-0 home win against the Bianconeri in the first leg of the Round of 16 game, but when the second leg is played, the French outfit will not have played for the best part of 5 months due to the Ligue 1 season being cancelled in March. As such, Juventus are still the favourite to progress, with their outright odds moving only slightly from 13/1 to 15/1. Lyon, however, saw the biggest collective lengthening of odds for all the remaining teams as their chances of winning shifted 33% from 72/1 to 99/1. Sky Bet saw the biggest change in their odds for Lyon, moving from 66/1 to 100/1, a change of 51%. 

Bookies favour PSG after draw with Atalanta

The biggest shortening of odds came for PSG. The newly crowned French champions beat Dortmund behind closed doors in the Round of 16 and have been set up in a quarter-final tie with the free-scoring Atalanta. The Parisian outfit were 4th favourite to win the tournament outright, but moved up to 3rd once the draw was announced, with their odds dropping 33%. 888 recorded the biggest drop when their odds were slashed from 6/1 to 7/2, a fall of 41%, but Sky Bet are in possession of the most favourable odds with PSG to win now at 11/2. Atalanta aren’t to be written off, however. They swept aside Valencia in the Round of 16 with a crushing 8-4 aggregate victory and they are well on course to score over 100 goals before Serie A ends this year. Their odds saw a collective shortening of 13% with Sky Bet once again in possession of the best odds of 16/1. The winner of this quarter-final would then face either RB Leipzig or Atletico Madrid in the second semi-final. 

Atletico emerge as dark horse as odds are slashed 

Atletico pulled off one of the shocks of the season when they beat defending European champions Liverpool in the Round of 16. They’ve been drawn against RB Leipzig who have proved to be one of the most exciting teams in Europe. The difference in their odds before and after the draw was made couldn’t be starker, however. Atleti will be the far more pleased of the two and their change in odds reflect that, recording a 25% net shortening. Leipzig, however, saw their odds collectively lengthen by over 29%, with Paddy Power recording 63% increase from 11/1 to 18/1. Atletico’s odds were slashed the most at 888 who saw a drop of 33% from 12/1 to 8/1 and, with two semi-final debutantes to potentially face in the next round, Atletico Madrid are a prime outside favourite to win the tournament outright.

Bookies favourites: predicted route to final

Semi-final

  • Man City v Bayern
  • Atletico v PSG

Final

  • Bayern v PSG

Odds correct at time of writing – bookmakers reviewed include PaddyPower, Sky Bet, 888sport, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Betfair, BetVictor

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