The Grammys 2021 Odds & Preview

The past year in music has been a year like no other and the 63rd Annual GRAMMYs on 14th March promises to be equally as unique with the awards ceremony set to take place without a live audience. What hasn’t changed this year, however, is the amount of quality and diverse music offered up by the world’s leading recording artists. As such, this year’s GRAMMYs promises to be one of the most competitive in recent years. 

The GRAMMYs also offer up some great betting opportunities with the tightly contested favourites and rising stars providing some fantastic value for money. Stars like Beyoncé (nine nominations), Dua Lipa (six nominations) and Taylor Swift (six nominations) are largely expected to dominate the ceremony, but as Arcade Fire’s shock Album of the Year win in 2010 proved, expect some potential upsets. 

So in order to paint a better picture about what might happen on the night, we’ve looked at the prices offered by a range of betting sites to find not only the best odds for each artist, but also the implied probability that each artist will win. We’ve also taken special care to look into the British hopefuls competing in this year’s ceremony, with eight Britons nominated in this year’s prestigious ceremony.

Album of the Year 

Nominee Latest odds (average from 5 bookmakers) Bookie consensus
Taylor Swift – Folklore 65.7% Low
Dua Lipa – Future Nostalgia 25.9% Medium
Post Malone – Hollywood’s Bleeding 9.9% High
Jacob Collier – DJESSE VOL.3 9.5% Low
HAIM – Women in Music Pt. III 6.8% Medium
Coldplay – Everyday Life 6.4% High
Black Pumas – Black Pumas  6.0% High
Jhene Aiko – CHILOMBO 6.0% High

Arguably the most coveted prize, the Album of the Year category boasts some famous winners, with the likes of Adele, Daft Punk and Taylor Swift most recently picking up the gong. Based on recent history, we’re unlikely to see a major upset as an outsider hasn’t won this coveted prize since Arcade Fire’s shock victory in 2010.

Swift is the outright favourite again this year for her first of two albums in 2020, Folklore. BoyleSports currently offer the best price on Swift to pick up the award at 4/6, while Paddy Power and Betfair offer the next best price with both offering 8/15. What’s more, across all six of the bookies we analysed she carries a 65.7% combined probability of taking the prize home. 

Britain’s Dua Lipa enjoyed enormous commercial success with her second studio album, Future Nostalgia, but her combined odds of 25.9% fall far short of her imperious American opponent.  BoyleSports are currently offering the best price for the British pop star to claim the award at 7/2. Unibet comes in a close second at 3/1, while Betway’s offering of 11/4 is the next best price.

The rest of the nominees in the best album category are all priced at relatively long odds by comparison. British musician Jacob Collier’s DJESSE VOL. 3 is priced at 17/1 by Unibet, running just behind Post Malone’s third studio album, Hollywood’s Bleeding, which comes in at 10/1 at both Betway and Unibet. Both are pretty close when it comes to combined odds, recording 9.5% and 9.9% respectively. 

Britain’s final hope in this category, Coldplay, comes in at 16/1 with PaddyPower, Betfair and BoyleSports, bringing their combined odds to 6.4%. Haim’s Women in Music Pt. III is priced at 20/1 to win by Betway and comes with a combined odds score of 6.8%. Jhene Aiko’s Chilmbo and Black Pumas’ eponymous debut are also priced at 20/1 by Betway, but both can only boast combined odds scores of 6%. 

Song of the Year 

Nominee Latest odds (average from 5 bookmakers) Bookie consensus
‘Cardigan’ – Taylor Swift 56.5% High
‘Don’t Start Now’ – Dua Lipa 25.8% Low
Black Parade – Beyonce 18.1% Medium
‘Everything I Wanted’ – Billie Eilish 11.6% Medium
‘Circles’ – Post Malone 6.7% Medium
‘I Can’t Breathe’ – H.E.R 6.1% High
‘The Box’ – Roddy Rich 4.8% Medium
If The World Was Ending – JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels 4.3% Medium

The song of the year prize is the ultimate songwriting prize that the GRAMMYs can offer as it recognises those who penned the best track of the year. So when Adele won the award for ‘Hello’ in 2015, for example, she collected it alongside the song’s co-writer Greg Kurstin. 

Taylor Swift again leads the pack in this category for her single, ‘cardigan’, from folklore. Unibet and BoyleSports have priced the American singer at evens to pick up the gong while PaddyPower and Betfair come a close second at 8/11. This all means that Swift goes into the ceremony with a combined probability of 56.5% of winning. 

Dua Lipa is once again second to Swift but this time she is in a far more competitive position. The best odds for her hit song, ‘Don’t Start Now,’ can be found at Unibet which are offering 13/4 on the British superstar to take home the prize. Meanwhile, Betway and BoyleSports both run a close second offering 3/1 for her win, all of which means she carries a competitive 25.8% chance of winning her third ever GRAMMY. 

Beyoncé’s ‘Black Parade’ is the third favourite, boasting a combined probability of 18.1% to win with PaddyPower and Betfair offering the best odds of 11/2. Billie Eilish’s ‘Everything I Wanted’ comes in a close fourth with an 11.6% chance of winning. You can find the best price for the American superstar to win at Betway and BoyleSports with both bookies offering odds of 10/1. 

Both Post Malone’s ‘Circles’ and H.E.R’s ‘I Can’t Breath’ have similar chances of winning at 6.7% and 6.1% respectively, while ‘The Box’ by Roddy Rich comes in 4.8% with PaddyPower and Betfair both offering 25/1 on the rapper winning the prize. ‘If The World Was Ending’ by DP Saxe featuring Julia Michaels is the least favoured of the eight options with only a 4.3% chance of winning. 

Record of the Year 

Nominee Latest odds (average from 5 bookmakers) Bookie consensus
Don’t Start Now – Dua Lipa 69.1% Medium
Say So – Doja Cat 28.8%  High
Savage – Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce 18.4% High
Black Parade – Beyonce 17.6% High
Everything I Wanted – Billie Eilish 10.1%  Low
Circles – Post Malone 8.3% Medium
Rockstar – DaBaby ft. Roddy Rich 5.8% Low
Colors – Black Pumas 4.7% Low

The Record of the Year award is slightly different to Song of the Year in that it celebrates the team of mixers, producers and master engineers who worked on the track over the songwriters. The artist(s) who sing the song still collect the award, but they do so alongside their wider production team.

This year, Dua Lipa’s ‘Don’t Start Now’ is the standout favourite, leading the pack with a strong combined probability of 69.1%. Unibet are offering the best odds for her to take home the prize, pricing the British singer at 1/2. PaddyPower and Betfair offer the next best odds, with both pricing Lipa at 4/9 to take home the gong, while Betway bring up the rear at 2/5.

Doja Cat’s global hit, ‘Say So’ comes in at a distant second with a combined probability of 28.8% to win the prize. Despite dominating the airwaves for the last 10 months, the best odds you’ll find on the American pop star winning are 12/1 at Betway. 

Megan Thee Stallion and Beyoncé’s ‘Savage’ is a close third, with a combined probability of 18.4% to win the prize. The best price on the American duo picking up the award is offered at Betway where the odds are currently 10/1. Unibet offers the next best price of 8/1, while Betfair and PaddyPower have posted relatively short odds of 11/4. Beyoncé is also up for a second nomination in this category for her song, ‘Black Parade.’ And after cross-referencing the odds of various bookies, we found that her second entry stands at a decent 17.6% 

The rest of the category come into the night with much longer odds. Billie Eilish is the best of the final four, boasting a 10.1% chance of winning for her track ‘Everything I Wanted’. Post Malone’s ‘Circles’ holds an 8.3% chance of winning, while DaBaby and Roddy Rich’s ‘Rockstar’ and Black Pumas’ ‘Colors’ come into the night at 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. 

Best New Artist 

This category has launched the careers of many up-and-coming artists, turning rising talents into household names. With the likes of Chance the Rapper, Bon Iver and John Legend alongside past British winners such as Amy Winehouse, Sam Smith and Adele, this year’s winner will be in some esteemed company. 

Magen Thee Stallion had an incredible 2020, releasing Good News, her most successful album to date, as well as some of the biggest singles of the last 12 months. It comes as no surprise then that she leads the nominations for Best New Artist, with the cumulative odds across PaddyPower, Betfair and Unibet giving her an impressive 61.5% chance of winning. The best odds for the Houston rapper can be found at Unibet who are offering 3/4 on her to take home the prize, while PaddyPower and Betfair both price her at 4/7. 

Doja Cat’s breakout year has been similarly rewarded with a nod in the Best New Artist category, but she fares some way behind Megan Thee Stallion, boasting a combined odds score of just 23.2%. US singer-songwriter Phoebe Bridgers holds a similar chance of winning, coming into the contest with a 21.5% chance. The best price on Doja Cat taking home the prestigious prize can be found at Betfair and PaddyPower where you can wager on odds of 5/1. If you fancy the American rock songwriter, then Unibet is the best place to lay your money where odds of 8/1 are offered on Bridgers winning on the night. 

The rest of the category are all out and out longshots compared to the three leaders. Noah Cyrus, daughter of Billy Ray, leads the rest of the pack with a combined probability of 4.8%, while Haitian-Canadian DJ, Kaytranada, comes in a close fifth at 3.8%. Ingrid Andress, D Smoke and Chika make up the rest of the nominations, going into the night with 3.5%, 2.6% and 2% chances of winning, respectively. 

Best Rock Album 

The Best Rock Album category has often featured a lot of British nominees, but with no win since Muse’s victory in 2015, there hasn’t been too much recent success for UK-based entrants. Nonetheless, with two excellent British & Irish albums nominated in this year’s category, there is the chance of a potential shock on the cards. 

Michael Kiwanuka’s Mercury Prize-winning album, Kiwanuka, leads the British and Irish nominations with a 20.4% chance of claiming his first GRAMMY, as per a combination of odds from Boyle Sports, PaddyPower, Betfair and Unibet. PaddyPower and Betfair are offering the best odds for the British singer-songwriter to win on the night, pricing him at 8/1. 

The other non-American entry for Best Rock Album is Ireland’s Fontaines D.C. for their explosive second LP, A Hero’s Death. They are the least favoured act to claim the prize with combined odds of just 8.4%, but as the first Irish act nominated for a GRAMMY in six years they will certainly favour their chances. 

The out and out favourite on the night, however, is The Strokes for their latest LP, The New Abnormal. Incredibly this is their first GRAMMY’s nomination and there’s a good chance they’ll be taking home the gong as they sit at a combined probability of 61.4%. The best odds on The Strokes to take home prize can be found at Boyle Sports which is offering the American veterans at evens to claim the award. 

Country singer, Sturgill Simpson is the nearest American favourite to claim the prize for his Sound & Fury LP. With a combined probability of 17.4%, the best price for him can be found at Unibet which is offering odds of 8/1. Grace Potter is the final American nominee in this category, boasting a 13.8% combined probability for her second album, Daylight

Best Dance/Electronic Album

The Best Dance/Electronic category has been a pretty happy hunting ground for British artists in the past, with the likes of The Chemical Brothers, Aphex Twin and La Roux all picking up the award in recent years. There is only one British entrant this year, however, in what is an incredibly diverse category. 

Kaytranada stands his best chance of picking up his first ever GRAMMY as he goes into the ceremony priced at 5/6 at both PaddyPower and Betfair and 5/4 at Unibet, he undeniably leads the pack. And with a 51.2% combined probability of taking home the prize, he is, without doubt, the bookies’ favourite. 

France’s Madeon comes in as the second favourite for his album, Good Faith. The DJ is best priced at PaddyPower and Betfair with both bookies offering 10/3 for him to claim the prize, which combined with the Unibet offering of 5/2, means he stands a 24.9% chance of claiming the award. 

Britain’s best hope in this category is Disclosure for their third full-length effort, Energy. Their combined probability stands at a respectable 23.7%, with PaddyPower and Betfair offering marginally better odds of 10/3. 

Baauer’s Planet’s Mad and Arca’s Kick I make up the rest of the category, coming into the contest with combined probabilities of 14.9% and 9.7%, respectively. Of all the nominees, Baauer could well be the surprise of this category. The American producer has known success in the past thanks to his global 2012 hit, ‘Harlem Shake’, which was the first track to reach number one in the US as a result of streaming alone. 

British Winner Odds

British artists have long enjoyed success at the GRAMMYs and this year promises to be no different. Six different British artists nominated for awards ranging from Rock Album of the Year all the way to Album of the Year. 

But here at we wondered what the chances nominated British artists have of winning a GRAMMY. So we decided to dive into the historical performance of British artists at the GRAMMYs to see what chance this year’s contenders have of walking away victorious. 

Historical British Winners 

84 British artists have received a prestigious GRAMMYs nod over the years, which means that there have been 848 British nominations since the awards started in 1959. Of those 848 nominations, 273 have been victorious which gives British artists a 32.19% conversion rate when it comes to the ceremony. By comparison, 377 American artists have received a cumulative 5151 nominations since 1959, with 1637 winning. This has earned them a conversion rate of 31.78%, which puts British entrants’ success rate just ahead of their hosts. 

Paul McCartney is the most successful British artist at the GRAMMYs having won 18 awards from a mammoth 78 nominations. Sting and Eric Clapton are not too far behind, both on 17 from a possible 45 and 37 nominations respectively, while mix-engineer Tom Elmhirst and British sensation Adele have brought home 15 each from 23 and 18 nominations, respectively.

When you dig into these numbers you can see the top five British entrants display some remarkable conversion rates. Despite winning the most GRAMMYs of any British artist, McCartney can only boast a 23% conversion rate, while Sting and Clapton both hold slightly higher rates of 38% and 45%, respectively. Elmhirst can claim a better 65% conversion ratio, but it is Adele who blows all her competitors out of the water with a staggering 83%.

On the night of the ceremony itself, there have been some huge successes for British artists. Adele has had two of the most successful single nights in GRAMMYs history, winning six in 2011 off the back of her album 21 and five in 2017 with her album 25. All told, 21 has racked up 30 million sales while 25 has been bought 20 million times

Legendary guitarist Eric Clapton had a similarly successful night at the GRAMMYs in 1993 as he won Album of the Year for Unplugged while also picking up five others. This was just reward as the album has gone on to pick up on 26 million sales globally

Amy Winehouse was one of the 21st century’s most successful artists and her glory was duly celebrated when she collected five GRAMMYs in 2007 following the release of her seminal album, Back to Black. That album would go on to sell over 15 million copies worldwide

When comparing this data with this year’s British contenders, the hopes remain high. While album sales are less of a force now, the streaming success for British hopefuls is strong. Dua Lipa’s Future Nostalgia has earned some incredible numbers to go along with her six GRAMMY nominations, hitting over 3 billion streams in 2020. Disclosure’s Energy has received similar commercial success, with collective Spotify streams on the album now at over 1 billion, while Michael Kiwanuka’s Kiwanuka has received a respectable 100 million plays on Spotify.  

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