There are five teams clustered closely atop the list of Super Bowl contenders.
It’s easy to understand why the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, 49ers and Eagles are expected to be in the title hunt next year, so we won’t waste our breath on them here.
How about some longshot picks? Here are five with odds that entice me.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (+2500 at BetRivers)
The Chargers were arguably the most-hyped team in the NFL heading into 2022. However, a rash of injuries and then an unforgettable meltdown in the AFC wild card round against the Jaguars left them short of true contention.
Quarterback Justin Herbert finished 11th in Total QBR, which was a decline from his third-place spot a season prior. He suffered a ribs injury, while receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams also missed significant time.
Los Angeles is bringing in Kellen Moore to be the new offensive coordinator, and I think the offense will be better next season. If the Chargers can get better injury luck and an MVP-type season from Herbert, they will constitute good value at these odds.
4. Baltimore Ravens (+3500 at Caesars)
There is already chatter that the Ravens could consider moving star quarterback Lamar Jackson this offseason. The more likely path still seems to be a franchise tag, which would keep him in Baltimore in 2023.
The Ravens have consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL with a healthy Jackson leading the way. However, he has been injured a lot the past two seasons, derailing their chance at a Super Bowl.
It’s possible that Jackson has played his last down for Baltimore, and if he leaves this offseason, there is next-to-no chance the Ravens win it all. But at these odds, it’s worth sprinkling a little money on them in case he returns and stays healthy in 2023.
3. Arizona Cardinals (+28000 at FanDuel)
The Cardinals legitimately felt they would be in the Super Bowl mix a season ago, but finished 4-13. While the expectations are now extremely low, this feels like a buying opportunity at 280-to-1 odds.
The future of DeAndre Hopkins remains unclear, and it’s unknown how long it will take Kyler Murray to recover from his torn ACL. But in a perfect world, both are on the field for the Cardinals for much of next season. If a new offensive mind can implement the right scheme, this passing attack has potential.
The team has the No. 3 overall pick and solid overall draft capital, and the Seahawks are a great example of how quickly a stud draft class can improve a roster. The NFC looks pretty weak next year, and if Arizona can stay afloat early while Murray gains his footing, it will be good value as the stretch run hits.
2. Chicago Bears (+10000 at Caesars)
It doesn’t look like it right now, but the Bears could be one of the teams that zoom from outhouse to penthouse next year. Even though Chicago finished with the worst record in the NFL in 2022, Justin Fields made progress and there was some intentional tanking going on.
With the promising quarterback heading into his third season, the time is now for the team to strike. The Bears have copious amounts of cap space along with the No. 1 overall pick, which might be traded for more capital.
The roster we see now in Chicago will look much different in a few months. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence are the most recent quarterbacks to take their teams on a fun ride in the playoffs after a down season previously.
The NFC North does not look very daunting, and if the Bears can win it, they will be in the Super Bowl conversation.
1. New York Jets (+3500 at Caesars)
The Jets had a top-5 defense last season and boast a good amount of young talent. The issue is at quarterback, and while the oddsmakers expect them to upgrade, the odds still look too long.
While Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo seem like possibilities, Aaron Rodgers is the signal-caller that makes this bet so attractive. The veteran gunslinger is soon beginning a darkness retreat to clear his mind before deciding on his future (yes, that was a sentence I just wrote), and a trade could happen soon thereafter.
The Las Vegas Raiders are the leaders in the clubhouse, but a lot of that is due to Davante Adams’ outspokenness about a reunion. If Rodgers has any say, the Jets certainly seem like a better situation, with a good offensive line and young playmakers.
The AFC is stacked, and the Bills and Dolphins both sit within the division. But the Jets were 7-4 at one point last season despite all of the quarterback uncertainty. Add a former MVP to the mix, and a championship becomes realistic.
