When the Vikings traded for a second first-round pick on March 15th, the J.J. McCarthy speculation whipped into a frenzy.
Minnesota had pick Nos. 11 and 23, and after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, seemed poised to make a deal to rocket up the board into the top-5 and land their quarterback of the future.
The betting odds soon mirrored this thinking, as McCarthy’s FanDuel odds to be the No. 4 overall pick in the draft went from +1500 on March 5 all the way down to +200 on March 27th.
Marvin Harrison, Jr., the likely pick if the Cardinals stood pat instead of dealing with Minnesota, always held the title of odds-on favorite, but those odds dipped from -230 down to -145 as McCarthy’s shot up.
Latest odds to be the No. 4 overall pick, per @FanDuel.
MHJ -145
JJ McCarthy +200Marv still the favorite, but McCarthy closing in.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) March 27, 2024
But now, as speculation continues but no solid reports link the Vikings to a trade with the Cardinals, Harrison’s odds are stabilizing as the most likely choice at No. 4 overall.
The Ohio State star is back to -200, which is an implied probability of 66.7%, while McCarthy has dropped to +400, as of April 10th.
Odds to be the No. 4 Overall Pick at FanDuel
- Marvin Harrison, Jr. -200
- J.J. McCarthy +400
- Drake Maye +750
- Jayden Daniels +1100
- Malik Nabers +1700
There has been reporting of late that Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort wants three first-round picks in exchange for No. 4 overall, which has always felt like the tipping point.
Harrison, Jr. has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler and Arizona has a glaring need at No. 1 wide receiver, so it could take a lot for Ossenfort to trade down.
Minnesota also has other options, as it could pursue deals with the Chargers at No. 5 overall or possibly the Patriots at No. 3.
McCarthy has +400 odds to be the No. 5 overall pick and now +250 odds to be the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.
The Vikings are the favorites to draft McCarthy at +115 odds, but it’s still a mystery as to how they will make that happen, if it comes to fruition at all.
And while a deal between Minnesota and Arizona can still very much happen, the betting markets believe the most likely scenario on draft night is Marvin Harrison, Jr. to the Cardinals at No. 4 overall.
