After a couple weeks of hype, the Super Bowl is almost here.
The sheer volume of prop bets available is enough to make your eyes gloss over, but fear not, dear reader, for I have read through them to come up with my five favorite predictions for the big game.
Here they are, in descending order:
5. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes under 36.5 pass attempts (+100 at FanDuel)
I get it. Everyone and their mother believes the Chiefs are going to put this offense on Patrick Mahomes’ shoulders in the Super Bowl. It is certainly a good plan, and we need look no further than the AFC Championship Game, where he threw it 39 times.
But 37 attempts is a pretty big number, especially considering San Francisco’s penchant for running the ball, which could lead to long drives on its end.
The 49ers have a good pass-rush, and if Mahomes is sacked a few times and forced to scramble a few more, suddenly the under is looking pretty good. I think San Francisco will win, and this could come back to bite me if Mahomes chucks it around late to surpass 36 attempts, but at these odds I’ll take the under.
4. Coin Toss Outcome: Tails (+100 at DraftKings)
DraftKings is giving +100 odds on the coin flip, so doubling your money is literally a flip of the coin.
And since tails never fails, this is the way to start the Super Bowl off right.
3. 49ers RB Deebo Samuel under 16.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
I’ve taken the under on Samuel rushing yards a lot this year and it’s usually worked out.
I’m very happy to do it here, with a number higher than usual, and with better odds than usual. Samuel has only reached 17 rushing yards once in his past seven games.
Samuel is a big-time threat at wideout, while Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL. There isn’t much need to mess with that, as McCaffrey should be good to carry a heavy load.
Samuel will likely get a few rushing attempts and is explosive enough to break a big one, but I like the under here because it would take nearly six yards per carry on three attempts to get there.
2. Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer: Over 22.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
The 22-and-under jersey numbers have the quantity, with Isaiah Pacheco, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice all on that side of the equation.
But the 23-and-over group has the quality. Christia McCaffrey is going to score the game’s first touchdown and help us hit on this bet. If he doesn’t, then Travis Kelce will. And just in case an underdog takes it, we’ve got George Kittle as well.
The 23-and-over group has this.
1. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk 70+ receiving yards (+118 at FanDuel)
I’ve already jumped on Aiyuk for Super Bowl MVP, so may as well double down here. The Chiefs generally do a good job against No. 1 receivers, but the big question is, do they try to limit Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel?
I think they will hone in on Samuel because of his yards-after-catch ability, which would then force Brock Purdy to make some downfield throws to Aiyuk.
Aiyuk averaged 83.9 receiving yards per game in the regular season and has quietly developed into an elite pass-catching weapon on the outside. I expect a big game, which will include more than 70 receiving yards.